LIBERALS UNDER IGNATIEFF VOW TO RAISE THEIR GAME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000341



SIPDIS



SENSITIVE



E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PGOV, CA

SUBJ: LIBERALS UNDER IGNATIEFF VOW TO RAISE THEIR GAME



REF: OTTAWA 324



1. (SBU) Summary: Federal Liberals emerged from their recent

convention more united, out of debt, ahead in the polls, and newly

confident that they will form Canada's next government. However,

the party remains far from battle-ready, despite a push from some

Liberal MPs to trigger a snap election. Grassroots activists

underscored the urgent need seriously to "raise our game" before any

return to the polls. End summary.



2. (U) More than 2,500 federal Liberals turned out April 30 to May 3

to "pull up their sleeves," renew the Liberal Party, and "earn the

trust of Canadians" at the party's biennial convention in Vancouver.

Delegates confirmed Michael Ignatieff as leader of the Liberal

Party by a vote of 97 pct. In post-convention interviews, Ignatieff

declared his party ready and "fit to govern," pledging by June to

have a policy platform that would focus on citizenship, education,

help for aboriginals, reform of Employment Insurance, literacy, and

Canada's leadership role in the world. Delegates largely declined

opportunities to "blue sky" new policy ideas, focusing instead

mostly on election readiness, fundraising, and internal

organization.



NO CONSENSUS ON ELECTION TIMING

--------------



3. (SBU) Differences on election timing were evident between some

Liberal MPs as well as Ottawa-based staff and activists on the

ground. Some MPs claimed to be "ready to go" to the polls soon,

perhaps by June. A number of young staffers in Ignatieff's

Ottawa-based Opposition Leader's Office (OLO) also favored an early

election. However, many activists, former candidates, and riding

presidents -- especially in ridings not currently held by Liberal

M.P.s -- underscored that the party was far from election-ready.

One self-described "life-long" Liberal (who had worked twelve years

in Ottawa in former Prime Minister Trudeau's office in the 1970s)

candidly warned that "we're stony broke, and if people up in Ottawa

get carried away [and trigger an election], we're in deep s--t."

Some activists pointed to poor communications, lack of money, and

outdated organization as evidence the party still needed

significantly to "raise its game" in order to win the next election,

whenever it might be.



TIME FOR CHANGE

--------------



4. (U) In a speech to the convention, Alf Apps (who had just won by

acclamation the post of the Liberal Party's new National President)

acknowledged that he "got" the need for "revitalization." Reforms

to fundraising and party organization had already begun before the

convention, he noted. Delegates overwhelmingly endorsed a change to

a one member/one vote system for electing future party leaders.

Ignatieff had personally campaigned for the change, which supporters

argued will be more democratic, simpler, and cheaper -- C$10 per

member, compared to C$2,000 per member for a traditional delegated

convention like this.



5. (SBU) In April, the party's "Change Commission" (initiated in

late 2008) had reported that party machinery was moribund in large

areas of the country. Outgoing National President Doug Ferguson

agreed that the party needed to "professionalize," advising

delegates to "throw the bums out" if their local party officials

underperform. Delegates griped about lack of resources, as well as

the need for better communications with members beyond the national

headquarters'"ka-ching" barrage of fundraising emails.



6. (U) In one workshop for approximately 100 people, one-third of

participants identified themselves as new Liberal Party members.

Most described themselves as previously non-political; some noted

QMost described themselves as previously non-political; some noted

specifically that Ignatieff's leadership and/or anger over Prime

Minister Harper's performance had motivated them to join the party.





PUTTING GAS IN THE TANK

--------------



7. (U) As the convention opened, Elections Canada reported that the

federal Liberal Party had raised C$1.8 million in the first quarter

of 2009, up C$977,801 over donations in the first quarter of 2008.

However, the total was still less than half of the C$4.3 million

that the Conservatives raised during the same period. (In 2008, the

Liberals had raised a total of C$6 million from a base of

approximately 50,000 donors, far behind the C$21 million raised by

the Conservatives.) New National Director Rocco Rossi has the task

of "putting gas in the tank," using state-of-the-art customized

voter tracking software developed by the U.S-based Voter Activation

Network (VAN),which the Obama presidential campaign had used.



8. (SBU) Rossi specifically emphasized to delegates the need to link

fundraising and membership engagement on the community development

model of the Obama campaign. In workshops, delegates reacted



OTTAWA 00000341 002 OF 002





positively to "Liberal 308," a new strategy to focus on all 308

national ridings, in contrast to recent campaigns that had

emphasized "winnable" (mostly urban) ridings, which had left large

swathes of Canada without any Liberal representation. Although a

major incentive would be the C$1.95 subsidy for every Liberal vote

in an election, delegates also argued the change would be better for

morale and would also help to reinforce the Liberal "brand" across

the country.



THINKING ABOUT SUBSTANCE, A LITTLE

--------------



9. (U) Delegates aired policy in four Policy Think Tanks: Canada

and the World: Earning Our Place at the Table; The Economy,

Environment and Energy; Rural Canada; and, Social Justice and

Multiculturalism. Afghanistan came up only briefly, however. A

majority of delegates opposed a continued combat role after 2011,

although Liberal MP and National Defence Critic Denis Coderre

underlined that Liberals would have to be "realistic," adding that

"we are at a crossroads," with an opportunity for Canada "to make a

difference" in Afghanistan. Former Foreign Minister and one-time

interim Liberal leader Bill Graham warned that "the world needs

Canada to play a role" and that there are "further challenges

ahead," winning strong applause.



10. (U) Delegates voted on 32 prioritized -- but non-binding --

policy resolutions on a range of topics, including calls for:



-- the government "actively and aggressively" to assert Canada's

northern sovereignty and expand its military capacity in the North;





-- establishment of a National Water Strategy, a ban on bulk water

exports, and talks with the U.S. and Mexico to exclude water from

NAFTA; and,



-- consideration of a carbon tax (a reprise of Stephane Dion's

"Green Shift" that Ignatieff had already disavowed in favor of a

cap-and-trade system).



11. (SBU) With respect to Canada-U.S. relations, Graham also noted

that the "U.S. has a President who thinks the way we do about the

world" and argued that "this is a chance to work with it." A number

of delegates cited in private conversations "synergy" between the

new U.S. administration and a future Liberal government. An

enthusiastic crowd cheered five images of Ignatieff with President

Obama during his visit to Ottawa in February as part of a video

backdrop to Ignatieff's keynote speech to the Convention.



GOOD NEWS FROM THE POLLS

--------------



12. (SBU) A recent Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put Liberal

support at 34 pct nationally, up eight pct since October, with

support for the Conservatives only 29 pct, down eight points. The

Liberals made notable gains in Quebec, specifically to the detriment

of the Conservatives, while drawing from the New Democratic Party's

support in Ontario. Notable were gains among female voters. In a

separate Ipsos Reid poll, the Liberals had a 36 pct to 33 pct lead

over the Conservatives. However, fifty-five pct of respondents in

the Ipsos-Reid poll said that the Liberals were not yet ready to

govern, and seventy-two pct did not want the opposition to trigger

an election any time soon.



BREESE