REGIONAL VIEWS ON CANADA'S AFGHAN MISSION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000317

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV AF CA
SUBJECT: REGIONAL VIEWS ON CANADA'S AFGHAN MISSION


1. (SBU) Summary: During a monthly Digital Video Conference,
Mission Canada reporting officers agreed on strong Canadian support
for Canada's troops, but no appetite to extend the 2011 end-date for
Canada's combat mission or to engage in any substantive discussion
of the role Canada might play in the country after 2011. No
noticeable differences have appeared between the Conservative and
Liberal parties on that issue, but Afghanistan conceivably could
become an issue (albeit not the likely dominant one) in the next
federal election. End summary


2. (SBU) PolMinCouns on April 27 chaired the monthly DVC for
Mission Canada reporting officers, focusing on regional perspectives
of Canada's Afghan mission and what Canadians believe Canada should
do in Afghanistan after the 2011 pull-out that the March 2008 House
of Commons' bilateral motion had mandated. From the Ottawa
perspective, he noted very little interest in Parliament or the
bureaucracy in looking past 2011, even regarding humanitarian and
developmental assistance, much less to re-think a possible continued
combat role if the U.S. and/or NATO made such a request. He shared
comments from WHA/CAN describing an April 23 meeting between members
of the Commons' Special Committee on Afghanistan and State
officials, at which the latter stressed that the U.S. would welcome
Canada to remain in a combat role if feasible after 2011 --
apparently the first time a USG official had specifically made such
a request even informally. PolMinCouns speculated about the
possibility that Afghanistan might re-emerge as a political issue in
the next federal election campaign, while recognizing that the
economy would likely be the primary topic. He opined that new
Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff might choose this issue as
one way to differentiate his party from the ruling Conservatives.

HALIFAX
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3. (SBU) The Consul General cited the significant Canadian Forces
presence in Atlantic Canada and noted strong public support for
Canada's military personnel. He nonetheless explained that mounting
casualties and Afghanistan's recent passage of sharia law curbing
women's rights had diminished popular support for the mission. For
the military community, the focus remained primarily on the security
aspect of the mission. Canadian military contacts welcomed the
American troop "surge" in Afghanistan, but the Consul General noted
little public reaction to the deployment and its effect on Canadian
Forces. The economy remains the region's top-of-the-mind issue.

QUEBEC CITY
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4. (SBU) Despite the fact that support nationally for Canada's
combat mission remains weakest in Quebec, the Consulate General's
local military contacts remained focused on Canada's combat mission
and morale appeared good. In contrast, discussion with local
academics indicated a general consensus that Canada had "done its
share" in Afghanistan and that it was "more than justified" in
ending its combat mission in 2011. Support for the mission overall
continued to decline in public opinion polls. Local media appeared
to be monitoring the U.S. draw-down from Iraq and deployment to
Afghanistan closely.


5. (SBU) The Consul General drew attention to a striking difference
in attitude respecting Canada's future role in Afghanistan between
those who had been there and were aware of progress on the ground
(including the positive reporting by media personnel who had
travelled there on USG sponsored programs) and the negativity of
those who had not, indicating an opportunity for the USG and the
Canadian government to utilize resources to shape attitudes.
QCanadian government to utilize resources to shape attitudes.

MONTREAL
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6. (SBU) Montreal noted increasingly sparse media reporting with
respect to Afghanistan, with the exception of a "blip" in reaction
to the recent Afghanistan sharia law, which had renewed questioning
over Canada's objectives in Afghanistan. However, local media had
offered balanced and respectful coverage during the recent funeral
of Quebecer Karine Blais, Canada's second female casualty in
Afghanistan. Reaction to the recent visit to Montreal of NATO's
Brigadier Thomas was positive and non-controversial.

TORONTO
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7. (SBU) Ontario's main focus remained squarely on the economy and
the crisis in the auto industry, but there has been some media
discussion of Canada's future role in providing humanitarian aid and
training post-2011, without any noticeable interest in considering
the extension of the combat mission. In an April national Canadian
Press-Harris-Decima poll, only 42 pct of Ontarians supported
Canada's Afghan mission, while 24 pct were opposed and another 27
pct were "strongly" opposed. Among those who supported the mission,
62 pct did so even after reports of Afghanistan's new sharia law.

OTTAWA 00000317 002 OF 002




8. (SBU) Toronto-area MPs, including Liberal foreign affairs critic
Bob Rae, had not engaged the community regarding the role Canada
might play in Afghanistan after 2011. Similarly, Liberal leader
Michael Ignatieff did not raise the issue at a recent fundraiser in
the city.

WINNIPEG
--------------


9. (SBU) Afghanistan was not a "top-of-the mind" issue in Manitoba,
with apparently no public interest in revisiting the 2011 end-date
for the combat mission. The American "surge" into Afghanistan had
engendered some positive media comment and optimism, but had not
altered overall public weariness with the conflict.

CALGARY
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10. (SBU) Alberta residents scored the highest support (55 pct) for
Canada's participation in the Afghanistan mission of any Canadian
province in an April Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, followed by
Manitoba-Saskatchewan (polled as a single block) at 52 pct. (In
comparison, 40 pct of Canadians nationally support the mission.)
Nonetheless, support for the mission had fallen in the region.
Afghanistan's introduction of sharia law had not been helpful. The
"Calgary Sun" published an online poll in early April suggesting
that local support would fall by approximately 25 pct if the law
remained on the books.


11. (SBU) Public support "for the troops" is at an historic high,
registering "around 90-95 pct" in the region, according to the
Canadian National Defence public affairs office in Calgary.


12. (SBU) One prominent academic at the Centre for Military and
Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary has pointed to an
interesting shift in media terminology with respect to media
reporting of deaths due to the Afghan mission, referring to
"Canadian soldiers" rather than "Canadian peacekeepers," suggesting
marked a significant change in Canadian military identity and a
positive shift in the public mind with respect to thinking about the
activities of the Canadian Forces.

VANCOUVER
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13. (SBU) There is a growing awareness in Vancouver of Afghanistan's
post-2011 humanitarian needs, largely due to the personal
connections of the present Governor of Kandahar, who formerly taught
at the University of British Columbia and whose family remains in
the city. Vancouver also has a small, but well-connected Afghan
diaspora (centered in UBC) that is promoting discussion of
democracy-building, education, and aid for the country. The
Consulate General will co-host a reception in late May, in
collaboration with local military battalions, for Canadian soldiers
who have served in Afghanistan to focus greater attention on
Canada's contribution.

COMMENT
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14. (SBU) The virtual disappearance since March 2008 of Afghanistan
as a Canadian political issue remains striking and consistent
nationwide. The unwillingness of Canadians to engage in substantive
discussion of Canada's role in Afghanistan after 2011 would make it
tough slogging for any chance of course to the current end-date of
the combat mission in 2011. Neither the Conservatives nor the
Liberals probably have much appetite for reviving this issue during
the next federal election campaign -- although more specific and
public requests from the U.S. and/or NATO could change this dynamic.

BREESE