REGIONAL VIEWS ON CANADA'S AFGHAN MISSION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000317 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV AF CA SUBJECT: REGIONAL VIEWS ON CANADA'S AFGHAN MISSION ¶1. (SBU) Summary: During a monthly Digital Video Conference, Mission Canada reporting officers agreed on strong Canadian support for Canada's troops, but no appetite to extend the 2011 end-date for Canada's combat mission or to engage in any substantive discussion of the role Canada might play in the country after 2011. No noticeable differences have appeared between the Conservative and Liberal parties on that issue, but Afghanistan conceivably could become an issue (albeit not the likely dominant one) in the next federal election. End summary ¶2. (SBU) PolMinCouns on April 27 chaired the monthly DVC for Mission Canada reporting officers, focusing on regional perspectives of Canada's Afghan mission and what Canadians believe Canada should do in Afghanistan after the 2011 pull-out that the March 2008 House of Commons' bilateral motion had mandated. From the Ottawa perspective, he noted very little interest in Parliament or the bureaucracy in looking past 2011, even regarding humanitarian and developmental assistance, much less to re-think a possible continued combat role if the U.S. and/or NATO made such a request. He shared comments from WHA/CAN describing an April 23 meeting between members of the Commons' Special Committee on Afghanistan and State officials, at which the latter stressed that the U.S. would welcome Canada to remain in a combat role if feasible after 2011 -- apparently the first time a USG official had specifically made such a request even informally. PolMinCouns speculated about the possibility that Afghanistan might re-emerge as a political issue in the next federal election campaign, while recognizing that the economy would likely be the primary topic. He opined that new Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff might choose this issue as one way to differentiate his party from the ruling Conservatives. HALIFAX -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Consul General cited the significant Canadian Forces presence in Atlantic Canada and noted strong public support for Canada's military personnel. He nonetheless explained that mounting casualties and Afghanistan's recent passage of sharia law curbing women's rights had diminished popular support for the mission. For the military community, the focus remained primarily on the security aspect of the mission. Canadian military contacts welcomed the American troop "surge" in Afghanistan, but the Consul General noted little public reaction to the deployment and its effect on Canadian Forces. The economy remains the region's top-of-the-mind issue. QUEBEC CITY -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Despite the fact that support nationally for Canada's combat mission remains weakest in Quebec, the Consulate General's local military contacts remained focused on Canada's combat mission and morale appeared good. In contrast, discussion with local academics indicated a general consensus that Canada had "done its share" in Afghanistan and that it was "more than justified" in ending its combat mission in 2011. Support for the mission overall continued to decline in public opinion polls. Local media appeared to be monitoring the U.S. draw-down from Iraq and deployment to Afghanistan closely. ¶5. (SBU) The Consul General drew attention to a striking difference in attitude respecting Canada's future role in Afghanistan between those who had been there and were aware of progress on the ground (including the positive reporting by media personnel who had travelled there on USG sponsored programs) and the negativity of those who had not, indicating an opportunity for the USG and the Canadian government to utilize resources to shape attitudes. QCanadian government to utilize resources to shape attitudes. MONTREAL -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Montreal noted increasingly sparse media reporting with respect to Afghanistan, with the exception of a "blip" in reaction to the recent Afghanistan sharia law, which had renewed questioning over Canada's objectives in Afghanistan. However, local media had offered balanced and respectful coverage during the recent funeral of Quebecer Karine Blais, Canada's second female casualty in Afghanistan. Reaction to the recent visit to Montreal of NATO's Brigadier Thomas was positive and non-controversial. TORONTO -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Ontario's main focus remained squarely on the economy and the crisis in the auto industry, but there has been some media discussion of Canada's future role in providing humanitarian aid and training post-2011, without any noticeable interest in considering the extension of the combat mission. In an April national Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, only 42 pct of Ontarians supported Canada's Afghan mission, while 24 pct were opposed and another 27 pct were "strongly" opposed. Among those who supported the mission, 62 pct did so even after reports of Afghanistan's new sharia law. OTTAWA 00000317 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) Toronto-area MPs, including Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae, had not engaged the community regarding the role Canada might play in Afghanistan after 2011. Similarly, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff did not raise the issue at a recent fundraiser in the city. WINNIPEG -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Afghanistan was not a "top-of-the mind" issue in Manitoba, with apparently no public interest in revisiting the 2011 end-date for the combat mission. The American "surge" into Afghanistan had engendered some positive media comment and optimism, but had not altered overall public weariness with the conflict. CALGARY -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Alberta residents scored the highest support (55 pct) for Canada's participation in the Afghanistan mission of any Canadian province in an April Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll, followed by Manitoba-Saskatchewan (polled as a single block) at 52 pct. (In comparison, 40 pct of Canadians nationally support the mission.) Nonetheless, support for the mission had fallen in the region. Afghanistan's introduction of sharia law had not been helpful. The "Calgary Sun" published an online poll in early April suggesting that local support would fall by approximately 25 pct if the law remained on the books. ¶11. (SBU) Public support "for the troops" is at an historic high, registering "around 90-95 pct" in the region, according to the Canadian National Defence public affairs office in Calgary. ¶12. (SBU) One prominent academic at the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary has pointed to an interesting shift in media terminology with respect to media reporting of deaths due to the Afghan mission, referring to "Canadian soldiers" rather than "Canadian peacekeepers," suggesting marked a significant change in Canadian military identity and a positive shift in the public mind with respect to thinking about the activities of the Canadian Forces. VANCOUVER -------------- ¶13. (SBU) There is a growing awareness in Vancouver of Afghanistan's post-2011 humanitarian needs, largely due to the personal connections of the present Governor of Kandahar, who formerly taught at the University of British Columbia and whose family remains in the city. Vancouver also has a small, but well-connected Afghan diaspora (centered in UBC) that is promoting discussion of democracy-building, education, and aid for the country. The Consulate General will co-host a reception in late May, in collaboration with local military battalions, for Canadian soldiers who have served in Afghanistan to focus greater attention on Canada's contribution. COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (SBU) The virtual disappearance since March 2008 of Afghanistan as a Canadian political issue remains striking and consistent nationwide. The unwillingness of Canadians to engage in substantive discussion of Canada's role in Afghanistan after 2011 would make it tough slogging for any chance of course to the current end-date of the combat mission in 2011. Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals probably have much appetite for reviving this issue during the next federal election campaign -- although more specific and public requests from the U.S. and/or NATO could change this dynamic. BREESE