SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000739 SIPDIS FROM AMBASSADOR WHITE FOR THE PRESIDENT E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019 TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL ECON ETRD SENV MOPS NO SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO OSLO 00000739 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Barry B. White for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (S) Mr. President, your visit to Oslo to accept the Nobel Peace Prize is of great significance to the Norwegians. Norway is a geographically mid-sized country with a population on par with Colorado, and, according to the IMF, a 2009 GDP per capita just below 100,000 USD - surpassed in the world only by Qatar and Luxembourg, which have much smaller populations. Historically, Norway was one of the poorest countries in Europe, but the discovery of North Sea oil in the late sixties provided an enormous economic boost and a mini-trust fund for all Norwegian citizens. Ranked in 2009 as the best place in the world to live by the UN Development Program Human Development Index, Norwegians view themselves as inherently egalitarian, and the oil wealth is shared throughout society through a generous welfare program. Much of the vast wealth has been reserved in an enormous Government Pension Fund for future generations, currently worth over USD 450 billion. Norway's government prides itself on its international engagement: it expends over 1% of GDP for development assistance and strives to maintain its image as a facilitator of peace negotiations. Norway also takes in several thousand refugees each year; although a homogenous society just over two decades ago, 26% of Oslo's population today comes from recent immigrants, primarily from Poland, Pakistan, Sweden, Iraq, and Somalia. ¶2. (S) Norway's King, His Majesty King Harald V, is cordial and friendly. When I presented my credentials in November, he reminisced about the time he spent at the White House with President Roosevelt during World War II. His fondness for the United States is echoed throughout Norway's older generations, given the close ties created through extensive immigration from Norway to the U.S. in the 19th and 20th centuries, and also due to U.S. assistance to Norway throughout the Cold War. You personally are very popular with Norwegians of all backgrounds and ages, and your presidency has boosted U.S. popularity among the younger generations: Fulbright applications from Norway increased this year by 30 percent. Prime Minister Stoltenberg holds you in high regard and very much looks forward to your visit. He also told me he is eager to visit you in the White House. The Prime Minister recently published a book entitled ""Conversations"" on discussions with his father, Thorvald Stoltenberg, who is a well-regarded Norwegian Labor party politician and former foreign minister. -------------- Foreign Policy -------------- ¶3. (S) The Nobel Peace Prize shines an exclusive spotlight for a few moments each year on this country of mountains, fjords, and vast quantities of natural resources. Ultimately, awarding you the Prize is the Norwegian Nobel Committee's way of welcoming your presence on the world stage. The Prize demonstrates their approval of your goal to free the world from nuclear weapons, your commitment to reversing global climate change, your promotion of dialogue and multilateral engagement to achieve foreign policy goals, including sustainable economic growth in developing nations, and even your desire to bring universal health care to Americans. Norway's Foreign Minister Stoere returned from the UN General Assembly (UNGA) enthusiastic about your ambitions and goals, and determined to hitch Norway's bold international agenda to your cart. Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials regularly tell my staff that your speeches in Cairo, at the United Nations Security Council's Special Session on Disarmament, and your UNGA speech were ""music to their ears."" They view your presidency as having the capacity and global influence to achieve the goals that Norway has historically sought to achieve. They want to help you and the United States succeed in your ambitious global agenda. Your visit presents an opportunity to thank the Norwegians publicly for their steadfast support and, privately, to lay out any specific requests for how they might do more, whether on Afghanistan, Iran, the Middle East, or elsewhere. ¶4. (S) Many of Norway's international goals mesh neatly with several of your own. During my initial meeting with Prime Minister Stoltenberg on November 27, it was clear that he is eager to highlight U.S.- Norwegian bilateral cooperation during your visit. Stoltenberg formed his third cabinet in October, and his Labor Party has a strong grip on government, with his two other much smaller coalition partners weakened by poor showings in September 2009 national elections. In particular, Stoltenberg seeks our global cooperation on maternal and child health (safe birth),carbon capture and storage, and deforestation. Stoltenberg is personally OSLO 00000739 002.2 OF 003 committed to addressing climate change. The Norwegian population shares the Norwegian government's efforts to protect the environment, as reflected in the past awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and to former Vice-president Al Gore in 2007. Norway has been active in COP-15 preparatory meetings, and maintains that developed countries should take on quantified emissions reduction commitments while developing countries should receive technological and financial support. Norway is investing heavily in carbon capture and storage technology in hopes that it will play a significant role in emissions reductions, and is a partner in the U.S.-led Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum. Norway also works closely with us in the Arctic Council, where we co-chair a task force on search and rescue capacity to support increased shipping traffic in the Arctic as the polar ice melts. -------------- Energy and the Economy -------------- ¶5. (S) While Norwegians pride themselves on their climate change policy and maintain one of the cleanest oil and gas production systems in the world, they understand the paradox their efforts represent, given that Norway's wealth comes mostly from the oil and gas industry. Indeed, energy is at the heart of the U.S. - Norway economic relationship, with nearly 70% of Norway's total exports to the U.S. coming from crude oil and petroleum products, and with about 60% of U.S. direct investment in Norway in the offshore petroleum sector. Norway, as the world's fifth largest exporter of oil and third largest exporter of natural gas, plays a key stabilizing role in global energy markets and in Europe's energy security. Norway serves as a reliable counter-weight to Russia's decidedly mixed record on energy security. Norwegians are also keen to emphasize indicators other than the oil and gas industry that demonstrate their economic success. For example, they are the second largest exporter of seafood after China, and their maritime shipping industry is the fifth largest in world. -------------- Russia and the Arctic High North -------------- ¶6. (S) Russia is a significant bilateral partner for Norway, particularly in one area cited time and again by Norwegian officials as Norway's top foreign and defense priority: the Arctic High North. Norway and Russia share a significant land frontier and a vast maritime border at the top of the world, but their proximity has never led to outright conflict, although they did sit on opposing sides during the Cold War. Norway welcomes your efforts to reset the U.S.- Russia relationship. Norwegian officials regularly point out the deep historical and cultural ties between the indigenous Sami people of the Barents region, Norwegian partnership with Russia in that country's Shtokman gas field project, and the highly successful fisheries resource cooperation as evidence of their productive bilateral relationship. Norway has never been invaded by Russia, and in fact, Russian forces liberated northern Norway from Nazi occupation. However, regardless of the publicly touted excellent relationship, Norway maintains wary eyes on its large neighbor. Norway is one of our most reliable partners in gathering and sharing intelligence on Russian activities, a highly important element of our relationship that necessarily has to stay out of the public spotlight. Norway also works quietly to counter-balance Russia's growing influence and adventurism by increasing international engagement in, and attention to, the Arctic High North. On security matters, Norway is lobbying for NATO's new Strategic Concept to balance NATO's current focus on ""out of area"" operations with improved coordination and capacity to protect NATO homeland territory. Norway is also looking to redefine NATO's position in regards to nuclear deterrence, and Stoltenberg told me he is looking forward to participating your April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit. -------------- NATO and Afghanistan -------------- ¶7. (S) Norway is a steadfast NATO ally, demonstrated through polling data that regularly shows Norway to have one of the highest levels of domestic support for the alliance. Stoltenberg has said that Norway will remain in Afghanistan as long as NATO remains, and there is minimal public pressure for Norway to withdraw its forces. Indeed, polling shows steady Norwegian public in support for Norway's role in Afghanistan. Norway's contribution of about 500 troops to Afghanistan is significant given the country's population and - taken together with Norway's deployments to the EU OSLO 00000739 003.2 OF 003 counter-piracy mission and the UN field hospital in Chad - represents almost all of the country's deployable forces. Stoltenberg's Foreign Ministry emphasizes Norway's civilian contributions to Afghanistan: it provides about $130 million per year in assistance, including support to international trust funds for the Afghan military and police forces. -------------- Iran -------------- ¶8. (S) Norway is committed to a negotiated settlement to the standoff over Iran's nuclear program and is a strong supporter of P5 1 positions, including both political pressure and additional sanctions. Norway's MFA has indicated that new sanctions on Iran adopted by the UN or the EU would be the easiest and quickest for them to enact, since such sanctions would not require complex legal procedures in their system. Stoltenberg's government sees Iran's failure to be transparent as negatively affecting Norway's own global disarmament and nonproliferation goals. Norway's state-owned oil company, Statoil, has investments in Iran's energy sector but is scaling back in-country operations and has committed to making no new investments there. -------------- Mid-East Peace Process -------------- ¶9. (S) During the Oslo Peace Process of the 1990s, Norway hosted Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, and the Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 to Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres, and Yitzhak Rabin. Tragically, Rabin was assassinated a year later by a figure opposed to his peace overtures. Subsequently, Norway has played a diminishing, often independent, and sometimes unhelpful role in the Middle East. Norway strongly believes it should engage everyone, including Hamas, which it has not designated as a terrorist organization, unlike the United States and the European Union. In a break with the international Quartet, Norway recognized the Hamas-Fatah Unity Government in 2007. Norway more helpfully serves as a highly effective Co-Chair of the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC),the main international donor group for coordinating economic assistance to the Palestinian Authority, and works to keep AHLC activities in concert with the political track of negotiations led by the U.S. Norway's relations with Israel have been strained in recent years due to its contact with Hamas, Norwegian disapproval of Israeli actions during the fighting in Gaza last winter, and periodic, privately-led boycott campaigns against Israeli businesses and universities. The Norwegian Government fully supports your intensive efforts to restart direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Norwegian and Israeli officials told us this fall that Norway has now initiated steps to improve the bilateral relationship with Israel, including through scientific or other exchanges and other activities. In early November, the government publicly condemned a private effort at a university in Trondheim to boycott Israeli academics, defining the effort as contrary to academic freedom. The university's board ultimately unanimously rejected the boycott proposal a few days later on November 12. -------------- Guantanamo Detainees -------------- ¶10. (S) The Norwegian government has so far declined to resettle detainees from Guantanamo (GTMO) in Norway, due to a combination of domestic politics, lack of security service/surveillance resources, and weak anti-terrorism laws. Although the outlook is not favorable, the Norwegians have not closed the door completely. Despite publicly calling resettlement of GTMO detainees ""purely a U.S. responsibility,"" Stoltenberg's Foreign Minister Stoere has privately told me and Secretary Clinton that he would prefer to talk quietly with us on this issue, out of the media spotlight. WHITE