NORWAY: COMMITTED TO NATO EFFORT IN AFGHANISTAN,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 OSLO 000734 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/RPM, SCA/A, EUR/NB, NSC FOR JHOVENIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019 TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR SUBJECT: NORWAY: COMMITTED TO NATO EFFORT IN AFGHANISTAN, NON-COMMITTAL ON ADDITIONAL FUNDS, TRAINERS, OR TROOPS REF: SECSTATE 120807 Classified By: Ambassador Barry B. White for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (S) In response to points in reftel, Acting Norwegian Foreign Minister Gry Larsen told Ambassador White November 25 that Norway remains solidly committed to the NATO mission in Afghanistan. (Larsen is the senior ranking MFA official in country, since FM Stoere is traveling in South Africa and Angola this week.) Although non-committal on specific increases in assistance from Norway, Larsen said the Norwegian government looked forward to thoroughly reviewing President Obama's plan to increase U.S. troop and financial contributions. Only after reading details of the President's plan could the GON consider specific resource commitments to support what was in it, she said. The U.S. can be sure, she continued, that Norway will "stick together with the U.S. and NATO, with a common vision on how to reach goals." She noted that the upcoming December 3 - 4 NATO Ministerial meetings would allow for a good discussion among Allies on next steps. Before the GON decides to allocate additional resources, she explained, the Norwegian MFA is undertaking a comprehensive review of its assistance to Afghanistan to date to determine how effective those funds have been in meeting the GON's goals. She cautioned several times that Norway is a "bit stretched" on Afghanistan, to which the Ambassador replied that the U.S. is in the same situation, and that we're all going to have to stretch a little more to accomplish our shared goals. ¶2. (S) Pol/Couns suggested that if Norway were able to commit to providing additional resources in Afghanistan, even if such commitments were for budget year 2011 and onward, such a concrete expression of allied unity and solidarity could perhaps be highlighted during President Obama's meeting with PM Stoltenberg during the President's visit to Oslo December 10. Larsen and MFA Deputy Director General for Security Policy Rune Resaland said that was an interesting dimension to factor into their thinking, and they would consider whether the GON could make any concrete decisions in that short timeframe ¶3. (C) Larsen noted the strong support from the Norwegian public and from Norwegian NGOs operating in Afghanistan both for the Norwegian troop presence and for Norway's significant engagement there. Challenges remain, Larsen concluded, but we must not lose perspective on all that has been achieved to date, from increased access to health care to greatly improved education. ¶4. (S) In a separate meeting to deliver reftel points to MOD, Deputy Minister of Defense Espen Barth Eide told DCM, DATT, and PolOff November 25 that Norway will stay in Afghanistan as long as NATO stays. He underlined that the U.S. is moving in Norway's direction with respect to strategy, by increasing the number of trainers to ensure Afghan partnership and ownership of the effort. He emphasized the importance of coherent civilian leadership in Afghanistan, and described his recent conversation with UNAMA Representative Kai Eide, who told him that while the theory of cooperation within the international community has improved, the actual coordination remains deficient. He added that the UN's role in Afghanistan had to be strengthened "for real" to ensure strategic civilian political leadership is in place to lead an integrated military and civilian effort. Barth Eide opined that the Europeans would not accept U.S. Embassy coordination of their development programs in Afghanistan, necessitating a lead role for UNAMA. This view was not connected to Kai Eide's Norwegian nationality, as Eide is expected to move on at some point. DCM noted that the Taliban had recently targeted the UN presence in Kabul, and in response the UN had drawn down its personnel. He again stressed the importance of the January London Conference for coordination and priority-setting on the civilian side. ¶5. (S) Barth Eide echoed Larsen's remarks regarding the Norwegian public support, noting that the most recent poll showed an 8% increase for the Afghanistan effort. He cautioned, however, against the U.S. making public demands on Norway, such as to request that Norway "send the Telemark battalion to the South," as it will stir up political debate in Norway and erode the "solid foundation" the current government has built to ensure continued support for the Afghanistan effort." (Note: This is consistent with Norway's desire to have all politically sensitive requests from the USG delivered in diplomatic channels and not in the media or public spotlight. Both Barth Eide and Larsen are from the Labor Party's ranks, as is FM Stoere, and they point out the OSLO 00000734 002 OF 002 complex reality caused by the fact that the left-leaning Socialist Left Party is inside the government coalition. End Note.) He also expressed concern about the commitment and public support level among some other NATO allies. He mentioned in particular Canada, where he had recently attended a security conference, also attended by Secretary Gates. Barth Eide had been alarmed at indications that Canada appears ready to stick to its announced plans to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2011. This would send a bad signal to the overall effort at a crucial time, he said. ¶6. (S) Barth Eide said Norway will deploy a Police Mentoring Team to Afghanistan, expected in the first half of next year, and had plans to send an additional Operations Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT),but is waiting for the Afghan government to send an additional brigade north. In regards to Norway's contributions to the NATO Trust Fund (USD 20 million) and the UN Law and Order Trust Fund (USD 10 million),he said the limits have been set for 2010, and additional resources would likely have to come from the 2011 budget. ¶7. (S) Barth Eide emphasized that Norway will remain in Afghanistan, and has already adjusted its 2010 strategy to increasingly partner with Afghan forces and further develop their capabilities. He added that Norway strongly supports increasing the number of Afghan National Security Forces but as he has noted previously, remains concerned about reaching the much discussed 400,000 troops in "a dysfunctional country." He said that all government institutions, both civilian and military, needed to be built in unison to avoid an unstable Afghanistan. He also noted that in recent discussions, British and French colleagues had expressed concern about building up such a large army in a four year time frame, noting that it would require 7.000 to 8,000 recruits to enter the system every month. He concluded by noting that would be a huge challenge from a resource point of view and would pose demobilization problems down the road when the situation stabilized and Afghanistan no longer needed so many forces. ¶8. (S) COMMENT: Our Norwegian interlocutors were not forthcoming at this time regarding additional contributions, but expressed a sustained and unshakable commitment to the NATO mission in Afghanistan. While Barth Eide seemed more open to considering a potential increase in assistance, Larsen kept her firm line, that Norway would review our plans and determine next steps. Larsen is relatively new in her MFA politically-appointed position and will inform the Foreign Minister of the new developments when he returns from his trip to South Africa. We expect Norway to fully support a united NATO approach in addressing Afghanistan at the upcoming NATO Ministerial meetings in Brussels, but doubt any new resources will be announced at the December 7 Force Generation conference. Additional pressure will need to be applied if we would like a commitment, at the January 2010 conference on Afghanistan in London, for increased Norwegian resources in Afghanistan. WHITE