S/NF: CORE EAC MEETING NOV 13 TO SHARE UPDATED

S E C R E T OSLO 000712 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR, S/CT, INR, DS/IP/ITA, P, M, CA, DS/IP/EUR LONDON FOR SECRET SERVICE M OLIPHANT E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2024 TAGS: ASEC NO OVIP PINR PREL PTER SUBJECT: S/NF: CORE EAC MEETING NOV 13 TO SHARE UPDATED INFORMATION ON AL-QAIDA RELATED CELL IN OSLO REF: A. A: OSLO 551 (EAC MEETING) ¶B. B: OSLO 653: (ANALYSIS OF FM STOERE'S COMMENTS RE: GTMO) ¶C. C: TDS 314-070065-09 ¶D. 314 069652-09 ¶E. 314-059524-09 ¶F. 314-059229-09 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM JAMES T. HEG, REASONS 1.4 b, c, and d ¶1. (U) DCM CHAIRED A CORE GROUP OF OSLO'S EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE NOVEMBER 13. AMBASSADOR WHITE PARTICIPATED. OTHERS INCLUDED: RAO and A/RAO; RSO; POL/ECON COUNSELOR; DATT; CONSUL; AND FBI TDYER IN RAO. ¶2. (S/NF) DCM CONVENED THE CORE GROUP TO DISCUSS UPDATED INFORMATION OBTAINED BY RAO ON NOVEMBER 12 AND 13 THAT CAUSE CONCERN REGARDING THE ABILITY OF THE NORWEGIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING ITS POLICE SECURITY SERVICE (PST),TO EFFECTIVELY HANDLE THE ONGOING INVESTIGATION OF THE AL-QAIDA CONNECTED CELL DESCRIBED IN REF A EAC AND REF C TD NUMBERS, AMONG OTHERS. ¶3. (S/NF) RAO BRIEFED THE AMBASSADOR AND CORE EAC MEMBERS ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS. A THREE PERSON CELL IN OSLO THAT HAS KNOWN CONNECTIONS TO AN AL-QAIDA FACILITATOR IN PAKISTAN HAS BEEN UNDER PST SURVEILLANCE FOR SOME TIME, AS DESCRIBED IN REF MESSAGES. TWO DEVELOPMENTS CAUSE RAO TO BE CONCERNED, THOUGH NEITHER ELEMENT, IN RAO OR THE EAC'S DETERMINATION, REPRESENTS A SPECIFIC, CREDIBLE, OR NON-COUNTERABLE THREAT OF THE TYPE THAT WOULD CHANGE OUR SECURITY POSTURE AT THE PRESENT MOMENT. RATHER, THE ISSUES BRING TO LIGHT SYSTEMIC/PROCEDURAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE PST'S HANDLING OF THIS COMPLEX INVESTIGATION WHICH THE EAC AGREED THE FRONT OFFICE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO RAISE WITH NORWEGIAN AUTHORITIES IF LIAISON CHANNELS WITH PST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS CANNOT FIX THE PROBLEMS. ¶4. (S/NF): THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT IS THAT A JUDGE AT THE OSLO CITY COURT WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GRANTING PST PERMISSION TO CONDUCT TECHNICAL SURVEILLANCE ON THE APARTMENT AND CARS OF THE THREE SUBJECTS DECIDED NOVEMBER 12 NOT TO RENEW THE PERMISSION FOR TECHNICAL SURVEILLANCE. UNTIL NOW, PERMISSION HAS BEEN RENEWED RELATIVELY ROUTINELY EVERY 14 DAYS OR SO. PST INFORMED RAO OF THE JUDGE'S DECISION AND ADDED THAT THEY PLAN TO APPEAL TO A HIGHER LEVEL COURT ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 16. UNTIL THEN, THE TECHNICAL SURVEILLANCE CAN CONTINUE. IF THE APPEAL IS SUCCESSFUL, IT CAN CONTINUE AFTER THAT. IF THE APPEAL FAILS, PST MUST PULL THE WIRETAPS IN THE CARS AND THE APARTMENT, AND RELY ONLY ON PHYSICAL SURVEILLANCE AND TELEPHONE INTERCEPTS ¶5. (S/NF) THE SECOND DEVELOPMENT THAT CAUSES CONCERN IS AS FOLLOWS: RAO THIS WEEK ASKED PST INVESTIGATORS TO ADD PHYSICAL SURVEILLANCE ON A FOURTH SUBJECT IN OSLO WHOSE JUST-TRANSLATED OCTOBER 14 CONVERSATION WITH ONE OF THE THREE COVERED SUBJECTS CAUSES RAO, FBI, AND THE UK LIAISON TO BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT HIS INTENTIONS AND POTENTIAL INVOLVEMENT WITH THIS CELL. PST INVESTIGATORS SEEM COMMITTED, COMPETENT, AND COOPERATIVE, GENERALLY, BUT ON THIS POINT, THEY REFUSED TO PUT SURVEILLANCE ON THE FOURTH SUBJECT AS REQUESTED. THEY WENT A STEP FURTHER: NOT ONLY WILL THEY NOT PUT THEIR OWN RESOURCES ON HIM (WHICH THEY MIGHT HAVE TRIED TO JUSTIFY CLAIMING A LIMITATION ON THEIR STRETCHED SURVEILLANCE RESOURCES DESCRIBED REF B),BUT THEY ALSO JUST TURNED DOWN THE VISITING UK INTEL SERVICE'S OFFER OF TWO TWELVE-PERSON SURVEILLANCE TEAMS THAT COULD HAVE ASSISTED THE NORWEGIANS IN COVERING THE EXISTING THREE SUBJECTS BETTER AND ADDING COVERAGE FOR THE FOURTH SUBJECT. RAO, FBI TDYER, AND UK SERVICE ALL FOUND THE CODED CONVERSATION OF CONCERN ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SURVEILLANCE TO SEE WHAT HE MIGHT BE UP TO. PST INSTEAD FOUND A WAY TO INTERPRET THE SAME TRANSLATED CODED CONVERSATION IN A ROSIER, LESS THREATENING LIGHT, AN INTERPRETATION WHICH MAKES LITTLE SENSE TO THE US OR UK. ¶6. (S/NF) TAKEN TOGETHER, THESE TWO DEVELOPMENTS HAVE ADDED TO THE RAO'S SENSE IN RECENT DAYS THAT PST IS IN OVER ITS HEAD IN THIS INVESTIGATION. IT SIMPLY CANNOT KEEP UP, EVEN AFTER HAVING PULLED ALL SURVEILLANCE ASSETS OFF EVERY OTHER INVESTIGATION IN THE COUNTRY (DESCRIBED REF B) TO WATCH THIS CELL. PST GAVE NO JUSTIFICATION FOR TURNING DOWN UK ASSISTANCE, OR FOR THAT MATTER, FOR TURNING DOWN CERTAIN OTHER ASPECTS OF OFFERS OF US ASSISTANCE. RAO HAS HAD ONE TRANSLATOR ON THE GROUND HELPING PST IN RECENT WEEKS, AND A SECOND TRANSLATOR IS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THAT HELP, THERE IS A HUGE BACKLOG IN THE TIME IT TAKES TO TRANSLATE WHAT IS BEING COLLECTED. ¶7. (S/NF) NOTHING IN THE MATERIAL TRANSLATED TO DATE OR SHARED WITH RAO HAS INCLUDED A SPECIFIC THREAT THAT WOULD INDICATE A PRECISE TARGET OR DATE OR EVEN DATE RANGE. BUT POST IS CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT WE DON'T YET KNOW BECAUSE OF PST'S LIMITED RESOURCES. ¶8. (S/NF) SEPARATE FROM THE ABOVE, RAO BRIEFED ALL ON THE LATEST GENERAL UPDATE ABOUT THE CELL. TWO MEMBERS ARE STILL IN OSLO AND BEING SURVEILLED. THE THIRD SUBJECT, JACOBSEN, JUST DEPARTED LAST NIGHT VIA FERRY FROM SWEDEN TO POLAND, AND PST HAS REQUESTED POLISH SERVICE SURVEIL HIM DURING HIS STAY THERE. IN ADDITION, THE CHEMICAL HYDROGEN PEROXIDE COMPOUNDS DESCRIBED IN EAC MEETING REF A ARE NO LONGER IN THE APARTMENT AS THEY WERE AT LAST REPORTING IN REF A. PST LOST TRACK OF THE CHEMICALS WHICH WERE APPARENTLY REMOVED FROM THE APARTMENT SOMETIME DURING THE LEAD SUBJECT DAVOUD'S TRAVEL IN TURKEY IN SEPTEMBER. (THE MOST DANGEROUS OF THE THREE BOTTLES OF HYDROGEN PEROXIDE HAD BEEN SURREPTIOUSLY RENDERED INERT BY PST BEFORE THE THREE BOTTLES DISAPPEARED). FINALLY, WHILE IN GENERAL, ALL THREE SUBJECTS ARE BEING SURVEILLED WHEN IN OSLO, RAO AND FBI TDYER FOUND OUT FROM PST THAT ONE OF THE SUBJECTS WAS NOT SURVEILLED PHYSICALLY FOR A 14-DAY PERIOD RECENTLY WHEN THE OSLO POLICE SURVEILLANCE TEAM ASSIGNED TO HIM WAS CALLED AWAY TO TRACK A SERBIAN CRIME ISSUE. THE NORWEGIANS DID NOT INFORM US IN ADVANCE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT. ¶9. (S/NF) RECOMMENDATIONS OF EAC: THE EAC RECOMMENDED THAT RAO AND UK LIAISON TRY AGAIN WITH HIGHER LEVEL CONTACTS IN PST TO CONVINCE THE NORWEGIANS TO ACCEPT UK'S OFFER OF PHYSICAL SURVEILLANCE ASSETS THAT WOULD STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL ABILITY OF PST TO TRACK THIS COMPLEX INVESTIGATION WHEREVER IT LEADS. THE EAC ALSO DECIDED TO SEE IF PST IS CORRECT IN ASSUMING IT WILL WIN ITS APPEAL NOVEMBER 16, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN WIRETAPS/TECHNICAL SURVEILLANCE ON THE CELL. IF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE MATTERS DO NOT TURN OUT TO OUR SATISFACTION, THE EAC RECOMMENDED THE AMBASSADOR AND/OR DCM BE PREPARED (IF AT ALL POSSIBLE, WITH THEIR UK COUNTERPARTS IN OSLO) TO RAISE THE MATTER WITH THE NEW PST CHIEF JUST SWORN IN THIS WEEK OR WITH MINISTRY OF JUSTICE AND MFA CONTACTS TO EXPRESS OUR CONCERNS. FINALLY, EAC RECOMMENDED THE RSO CONTACT HIS SECRET SERVICE CONTACTS TRACKING THREAT ASSESSMENTS FOR THE UPCOMING POTUS VISIT AND ENSURE THEY ARE CLOSELY READING REF C AND OTHER RELATED MESSAGES. WHILE POST IS AWARE OF NO SPECIFIC THREAT OR TARGETING PLANS IN PST'S MONTHS-LONG INVESTIGATION OF THIS CELL TO DATE, THE CORE EAC DECIDED TO TAKE THESE MEASURS TO ENSURE THE NORWEGIANS TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION CONSISTENT WITH OUR SERIOUS LEVEL OF CONCERN. 10.(C) QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS MESSAGE SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO RSO ERIC CARLSON OR TO A/RAO ANDREA KABLE. WHITE