PM STOLTENBERG COMES OUT STRENGTHENED: FOUR MORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OSLO 000561 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB, SES-O E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019 TAGS: NO PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: PM STOLTENBERG COMES OUT STRENGTHENED: FOUR MORE YEARS FOR HIS RED-GREEN COALITION Classified By: CDA James T. Heg for reasons 1.4(d) ¶1. (SBU) Norway's Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg (Labor Party - AP) and his two coalition partners, the Socialist Left (SV) and Center Party (SP) held on to their parliamentary majority in nationwide elections September 14, winning 86 of 169 seats in Parliament. Stoltenberg himself, as well as the Labor Party more broadly, came out strengthened by the relatively strong showing of AP compared to pre-election polls and to the party's 2005 numbers, and the weak showing of his far-left-leaning SV coalition partner headed by current finance minister Kristen Halvorsen. On the morning after, media focused on the tactical victory for PM Stoltenberg - who is being compared to great statesmen and Labor Party giants like Einar Gerhardsen and Gro Harlem Brundtland. This is the first majority government to win reelection in Norway since 1949. (The last minority government to do so was in 1993.) ¶2. (C) The three coalition parties now head into negotiations on a new common governing platform for 2009-2013, where decisions will also be made about adjustments in the allocation of ministers based on the final vote tally. Post does not expect major changes in the cabinet, including Foreign Minister Stoere or Finance Minister Halvorsen. Unlike in 2005, when foreign and defense policy were major campaign issues, especially for SV, these issues were largely absent from the 2009 campaign. Norway will likely remain a steadfast partner on issues related to NATO and ISAF/Afghanistan, and will continue to look forward to engagement with the United States on important issues such as Climate Change/COP-15, nuclear security, and the fight against global poverty. Interestingly, two of the SV MP's most noted for their opposition to Norway's deployment in Afghanistan from 2005-2009 are now out of the Parliament. SV's relative weakening in the Red-Green coalition can only lead to status quo or slightly better for U.S. interests. In practice, there will likely be little change in the near term to Norway's participation in Afghanistan. ¶3. (SBU) The four main center right opposition parties couldn't muster a viable alternative government, and their infighting likely led to their defeat as a bloc. That being said, Erna Solberg's Conservative Party (Hoyre) came out much stronger than their 2005 numbers and pre-election polls, with the end result that they gained seats to win a total of 31 seats in the new parliament. Siv Jensen's controversial right-leaning Progress Party (FrP) did not do as well as they expected to do, but nevertheless pronounced great satisfaction at having produced their greatest election result ever, with a total of 40 seats (compared to 38 in the last parliament). ¶4. (SBU) While Labor, FrP, and Hoyre scored impressive gains, the moderate center Liberal Party (Venstre) suffered an unexpected and almost total defeat, going from 10 to 2 seats. As results became clear on election night, Venstre's party leader Lars Sponheim announced he would resign as party leader at the party's next convention. In the final count, he did not even win his own seat. It was Sponheim who had made a major campaign issue out of refusing to contemplate cooperation with any government that included Siv Jensen's FrP. This infighting, while based on principled differences such as opposition to FrP's anti-immigration and weak environmental protention stand, appears to have turned off many potential Venstre voters. In the post election party leader debate after midnight and in morning media, Sponheim is being portrayed as the biggest loser in the election; some are scapegoating him as the cause of the opposition parties not being able to unseat the Red-Green coalition. ¶5. (SBU) With 99.9 percent of the votes counted as of September 15, turnout was at a historic low at roughly 74 percent (a low last matched in 1927). This could be explained by a lack of defining issues and the party infighting, but the pundits and researchers will be pondering that question for months to come. ¶6. (U) New faces: The only minority-background candidate to win a seat in this new parliament is Hadia Tajik (Labor Party),who was nominated for an IV by Embassy Oslo in 2008-9 and who attended the Iftar dinner hosted by the Charge last week. (Tajik becomes only the second minority background MP to win a seat , after Afshan Rafiq (Conservative Party) , who was in parliament from 2001-2005. Both are women. Other current and former Embassy IV candidates also won seats. ¶7. (U) Post will report septel on developments in coalition OSLO 00000561 002 OF 002 platform negotiations and any changes in ministerial portfolios, as well as on longer term trends as a result of this election that might affect U.S. interests. HEG