KANSAI ECONOMIC RECOVERY OUTLOOK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OSAKA KOBE 000045 TREASURY FOR FOSTER AND WINSHIP STATE PASS USTR FOR CUTLER AND BEEMAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV JA SUBJECT: KANSAI ECONOMIC RECOVERY OUTLOOK SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. CONTAINS PROPRIETARY INFORMATION. ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Kansai-based business people and experts are generally optimistic on the mid to long term outlook for Kansai's economic recovery. In the short term, they cite lack of economic confidence and the uncertainty over Japan's leadership and political outlook are the biggest obstacles to recovery. As elsewhere in Japan, there is a tendency to look to the U.S. for action to resolve the current global economic crisis and a sense that a number of Japanese companies are using the situation to execute restructuring decisions that might not be possible in more prosperous times. End summary. -------------- Bank of Japan -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Meeting with Embassy Tokyo EMIN March 10, a top BOJ Osaka Branch official identified public disappointment with the political leadership and the mass media's negative economic reports as primary contributors to record low consumer confidence. Still, the BOJ official was generally optimistic about the long term prospects for economic recovery in the region that includes Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto, saying the economic downturn is cyclical in nature and that the dramatic global economic stimulus efforts will have equally dramatic effects after the inevitable lag between action and effect. ¶3. (SBU) The BOJ Osaka Branch official does not believe that Kansai's and Japan's model of export-led growth has been discredited and is in need of replacement. With a greater percentage of Kansai's economy in manufacturing, the shocks are heavier and more apparent, especially in the auto and consumer electronics industries, he says, but China and India will begin to recover within a year and resume buying Japan's exports. Kansai manufacturing levels may not completely return to prior levels, but they will revive to a large extent. It is neither reasonable nor fair, he continued, to suggest Kansai manufacturers should have been more proactive in diversifying from the export oriented manufacturing model that was so successful over the past years. The currently popular argument that former Prime Minister Koizumi, Minister of State for Privatization of the Postal Services Heizo Takenaka, and President of the Council for Promoting Regulatory Reform Yoshihiko Miyauchi were wrong to deregulate the economy is "really stupid" as are the media articles equating the reforms with succumbing to USG pressure. Koizumi's direction was correct and the USG does not need to worry that Japan will reverse course, opined this BOJ official. ¶4. (SBU) Citing the the most recent BOJ survey of consumer sentiment (seikatsusha ishiki chosa),the BOJ Osaka official said 86 percent of respondents answered that the current economic situation is "bad." When asked why they thought so the two most popular responses were that "the Mass Media says the economy is bad" and "statistics show it is bad." The result is surprising, he continued; one would have expected more responses such as reductions in salary or lay-offs. -------------- Proctor & Gamble -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Osaka BOJ branch's generally optimistic outlook was echoed by Proctor and Gamble President Hatsunori Kiriyama. While noting some cost cutting efforts including a shift away from television and toward web-based advertising, slight dips in consumer OSAKA KOBE 00000045 002 OF 003 consumption and increased price competition from store brand products, P&G continues to do well, says Kiriyama. Following a decade or more of recession since the 1990s, Japanese consumption of beauty and skincare products is unlikely to contract much from the current levels. Demographic shifts will likely mean a shrinking market for some P&G items like diapers, but an increase in consumption in skin care and hair coloring among Japan's aging population. ¶6. (SBU) Ms. Yukiko Tsujimoto, P&G Director for External Relations raised concerns with the "overly protective nature" of the GOJ on regulatory issues. In particular, P&G is concerned with restrictive consumer protection limitations on advertising, the potential for new, more constraining rules on employment, and protectionist sentiment emerging out of the current economic climate. Approximately half of P&G products sold in Japan are imported or use imported raw material and some Japanese regulatory requirements have been constraints, added Kiriyama. -------------- Short Term Pain for SMEs -------------- ¶7. (SBU) While generally agreeing the long term outlook for Kansai's economy is good, an advisor to small and medium sized enterprises, Nobutaka Uenaka of the Higashi-Osaka Creation Core, wonders whether many of the SMEs he advises can survive long enough to be part of the recovery. One larger SME he advises, an automobile parts supplier with operations in the Nagoya area as well as China and Malaysia, has cut salaries by 50 percent and taken other steps such as moving offices out of Nagoya to a cheaper location. Without new orders, says Uenaka, the company cannot survive for more than about six more months. ¶8. (SBU) Takumi Hirai, an economic commentator and associate professor at Poole Gakuin University, notes an additional strain on SMEs. As large Japanese companies have gone to commercial banks to boost liquidity, the SMEs have been crowded out. Hirai cautions, however, that the special credit guarantee program for SMEs could create "zombie" companies. While recognizing that many "SMEs may be fading quietly away", like the BOJ's Matsuda, Hirai believes the biggest obstacle to recovery is psychological, overcoming the widely-held perception that the economy is bad. -------------- Politics Lags the Economy -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Panasonic Vice Chairman Masayuki Matsushita commented that while the economic situation remains severe, Japan's politicians and politics are failing to provide policy solutions. Neither he nor Kansei Economic Federation Chairman Hiroshi Shimozuma were positive on the GOJ's actions taken thus far to stimulate the country's economy. Matsushita noted, however, companies are taking actions to restructure and to come out of the current crisis more competitive. Panasonic's founder, Matsushita told EMIN, "Bad economic times -- like booming economies -- can be good times for a company." Panasonic too is making changes during the downturn; he would not, however, discuss company thinking regarding the laying off of employees. -------------- Pro-Business Policies Needed -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Kankeiren Chairman (and Sumitomo Metals President) Hiroshi Shimozuma did indicate he would prefer the continuation of a Liberal Democratic Party- OSAKA KOBE 00000045 003 OF 003 led government after the general election. Above all, strong pro-business policies that stimulate the economy, including through tax cuts, are needed. While government policies to strengthen the safety net for the unemployed are important, it is not a wise course for the government to mandate job-sharing to try to staunch unemployment. "Job sharing might work in a department store, but not on the factory floor," he said. ¶11. (U) This cable was cleared with Embassy Tokyo. DONG