SENATE ELECTIONS: MAJORITY AND OPPOSITION COMPETE

UNCLAS NOUAKCHOTT 000664 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MR SUBJECT: SENATE ELECTIONS: MAJORITY AND OPPOSITION COMPETE FOR FIFTEEN SEATS REF: NOUAKCHOTT 659 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: One third of the senate -- fifteen seats -- is up for election on November 8 before the opening of the next ordinary parliamentary session in mid-November. These elections will be the first for the majority party Union Pour la Republique (UPR),which hopes to assert its control over most of the electoral districts at stake. In an unexpected alliance, UPR is presenting a joint list with Islamist party and former Front National pour la Defense de la Democratie (FNDD) member Tawassoul. The opposition's FNDD and Rassemblement des Forces Democratiques (RFD),which have decided to participate despite their unwillingness to recognize the new government, will field separate lists. Stakes are not high given the senate's limited role in parliament but these elections are an opportunity for the opposition to carve itself a place in the new political environment. Their outcome will throw further light into the new power alliances following Aziz's July 18 win. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Elections to renew one third of the senate are scheduled for November 8. Fifteen seats are up for election in eleven electoral districts, namely Hodh Al Charghi, Hodh Al Gharbi, Assaba, Gorgol, Trarza, Dakhlet Nouadhibou, Tagant, Guidimakha, Tiris Zemmour, Inchiri, and Nouakchott. Senate elections are via indirect suffrage with candidates lobbying for the votes of members of the Municipal Councils in their district. Mauritanian citizens do not cast votes for senators directly. ¶3. (SBU) These elections are the first for majority party UPR, formed in May on the eve of the canceled June 6 election. UPR is submitting a joint list with former FNDD member Tawassoul, whose candidates head the lists in Nouakchott, Boutilimit and Ouad Naga. Comment: This unexpected alliance has elicited strong reaction from the opposition as many in the majority, including Aziz, cited President Abdallahi's inclusion of the Islamists in the political process as a justification for the coup d'etat. End comment. UPR hopes to control a majority of the seats as many of the municipal advisors left their former parties to join UPR. The UPR/Tawassoul alliance confirms Tawassoul's new orientation closer to the presidential majority. ¶4. (SBU) The opposition -- FNDD and RFD -- is participating despite its rejection of the July 18 election results. The FNDD, an umbrella organization of parties opposed to the coup that includes main opposition parties UFP (Mohamed Ould Maouloud) and APP (Messaoud Ould Boulkheir),has decided to present a common list. Despite initial rumors pointing to a joint FNDD and RFD list, both will field separate lists but have decided to support each other where one has a majority of municipal advisors (reftel). ¶5. (SBU) Comment: The stakes are not high given the senate's limited role in parliament. Nevertheless, these elections are an opportunity for both the opposition and the majority. After the July 18 debacle, the opposition has now a chance to carve a place for itself in the new political order. For Daddah's RFD, it is an opportunity to confirm its place as the main opposition party in parliament. The future fate of the FNDD, which is still around despite the end of the constitutional crisis and the expectation that it would wither away, will likely be decided by its performance in this election. For UPR, the election is an opportunity to consolidate itself as a single majority party. The results of the election are likely to shed some light on tribal and regional politics following Aziz's win. BOULWARE