MAURITANIA'S 2009 AGOA ELIGIBILITY REVIEW

UNCLAS NOUAKCHOTT 000658 SIPDIS FOR AF/WA, AF/EPS FOR GABRIELLE MALLORY, USTR FOR CONSTANCE HAMILTON, DEPT. OF COMMERCE FOR KEVIN BOYD, DEPT. OF TREASURY FOR ANTHONY IERONIMO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EAID ECON ENRG ETRD PHUM MR SUBJECT: MAURITANIA'S 2009 AGOA ELIGIBILITY REVIEW REF: STATE 97769 Country: Mauritania Country Background Summary: The Islamic Republic of Mauritania has an estimated population of 3.12 million. Real GDP in 2008 was USD 3.0 billion and grew by 3.0%. Forecasts for 2009 indicate an economic contraction with real GDP expected to decline by 1.2-1.8% due to political instability and the global financial crisis. Mauritania ran a 9% budget deficit in 2008. Mauritania was suspended from eligibility for AGOA benefits in 2008 following the August 6, 2008 coup d'etat that unseated democratically elected President Abdallahi. The 2008 coup d'etat drew widespread condemnation from the international community and resulted in a decrease in economic activity and international aid in Mauritania. Many western countries, as well as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund halted their assistance programs with Mauritania following the coup d'etat. Following a Senegalese brokered political agreement in July 2009, former General Mohamed Abdel Aziz, the leader of the 2008 coup d'etat, won the presidential elections that were recognized by the international community. Many international organizations, including the IMF and World Bank, have since re-engaged with Mauritania. Bilateral sanctions imposed by the United States following the coup have been removed following the constitutional transfer of power. ¶I. MARKET-BASED ECONOMY ¶A. Major Strengths Identified - Mauritania offers a small, under-developed market with room for potential growth. Large-scale private foreign investments are occurring in the petroleum, mineral, telecommunications and fishing sectors. - Copper, gold, and uranium mining, which commenced in 2007 are potential revenue generating activities. Following the 2009 presidential elections there has been increased investment from foreign mining companies in Mauritania. -The African Development Bank recently signed a USD 175 million loan agreement with Mauritania's largest parastatal company, SNIM (Societe Nationale Industrielle et Miniere de Mauritanie),to invest in a new iron ore mine, which hopes to increase production from a current 11 million annual tons of iron ore to 14 million tons/year. -A six-year 2006 EU-Mauritanian Fisheries Partnership Agreement valued at 86 million Euros per year provides a source of foreign currency revenue for the Mauritanian government. -Oil, gas and mineral exploration permits continue to be granted to foreign companies. Mauritania has no discriminatory policies regarding foreign investment or imports and there is significant interest in pursuing business agreements with U.S. companies and investors. -Trade with the United States, while not numerically large, is growing rapidly, with Mauritania importing USD 106 million worth of American products in 2008; mostly industrial equipment for the mining and oil exploration industries. -Mauritania reached its "completion point" under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in 2002. After the government took remedial actions on its macroeconomic performance in 2006, Mauritania was declared eligible for nearly USD 550 million in debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in June 2006. -A number of prominent Mauritania businessmen have inquired about the status of Mauritania's AGOA eligibility, viewing AGOA as an opportunity to strengthen U.S.-Mauritanian relations, while helping their businesses to explore the relatively untapped American market for Mauritanian goods. ¶B. Major Issues/Problems Identified -Real GDP is forecast to decline by 1.2-1.8% in 2009. -Political isolation during the 12-months of the coup d'etat, coupled with recent security issues, severely damaged Mauritania's international standing, developmental assistance and foreign investment in Mauritania. -The global financial crisis and the resulting decline in commodity prices have damaged Mauritania's primary export industries in the fishing, iron ore and petroleum extraction industries. -While Mauritania successfully engaged with the IMF and World Bank in the past, the IMF's 2007 Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PGRF) program review stated that all 2007 performance criteria and benchmarks were met, the 2008 coup d'etat halted Mauritania's relationship with the IMF for nearly 12 months. -The IMF conducted a brief visit to Mauritania in September 2009 to announce its re-engagement with Mauritania. The IMF team noted that Mauritania's 2008 budget deficit of 9% exceeded the previously agreed upon IMF parameter of 3%. The official 2009 budget deficit is estimated to be at least 5-6% of GDP, although many fear the actual deficit may be higher. -There remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding Mauritania's financial situation. During the coup d'etat all communication with the IMF and other financial institutions was severely curtailed, leading many to speculate about the true status of the Mauritanian financial situation. -Average oil production fell considerably from a high of 54,000 barrels/day in February 2006 to approximately 11,000 barrels/day in September 2009. Estimates of Mauritanian oil reserves have been revised downward to 53 million barrels of oil equivalent, from an initial estimate of 123 million barrels. -Inflation has been a major problem in Mauritania, with consumer price inflation of 7.3% in 2008. Significant increases in basic food good prices in 2008 lead to food riots and political instability. While price increases were brought under control in 2009, there are indications inflation could become a problem in the 4th quarter of 2009 or early 2010. -During the fall of 2009, Nouakchott was plagued by daily power outages due to lack of capacity and aging equipment at the only power production facility in the capital. The frequent and lengthy power outages placed severe strains on Mauritanian citizens and businesses operating in Nouakchott. -According to the World Bank's 2009 Doing Business Report, Mauritania was ranked 160 out of 181 countries surveyed in terms of ease of doing business. II. POLITICAL REFORMS/RULE OF LAW/ANTI-CORRUPTION ¶A. Major Strengths Identified -One of President Aziz' main election promises was to engage in a fight against corruption at all levels of the government. Some prominent arrests for corruption have taken place since President Aziz took office. -The Abdallahi government, in conjunction with UNHCR, began repatriating Mauritania refugees living in Senegal. Of the estimated 24,000 refugees, approximately 11,000 have been repatriated. This program has continued under the Aziz government, and the UNHCR hopes to complete the repatriation program by January 1, 2010. ¶B. Major Issues/Problems Identified -Many of the good governance initiatives began under the Abdallahi government were halted after the coup d'etat. President Aziz has continually stressed the importance of good governance, but it remains too early to measure his administration's performance in this domain. -Preferential treatment remains common in government procurement and allocation of resources. -The executive branch exercises significant influence over the judiciary through its ability to appoint and remove judges. In addition, poorly educated and trained judges are susceptible to social, financial and tribal pressures, limiting the judicial system's fairness. -Favoritism and corruption remain widespread. Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index ranked Mauritania 115th out of 180 countries in 2008. -Government officials reportedly receive frequent favors from authorities, such as unauthorized exemption from taxes, special grants of land and favorable treatment during bidding on government projects. III POVERTY REDUCTION ¶A. Major Strengths Identified -In September 2009 the IMF agreed to a re-engage with Mauritania and plans to commence a new three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Program in January of 2010. -In September of 2009 the World Bank agreed to restart their Country Assistance Strategy (CAS),which had been canceled due to the coup d'etat. The World Bank agreed to release USD 16 million of frozen funds for the CAS, which will focus on strengthening economic governance, building public sector capacity, helping to improve the investment climate and fighting both rural and urban poverty. -Following the certified elections in July 2009, many foreign governments and international organizations are restarting their foreign assistance programs in Mauritania. ¶B. Major Issues/Problems Identified -The World Bank projects that Mauritania will not be able to meet all of the Millennium Development Goals by 2015, particularly in the area of health. -The Global Fund for the Prevention of AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria suspended Mauritania from the Global Fund program in September of 2009 when a financial audit indicated over USD 4 million in funds were unaccounted for or fraudulently spent. The Mauritanian Government moved quickly to promise restitution of misappropriated funds and arrested the senior Mauritanian officials responsible for the alleged fraud. -Poverty rates remain high and approximately ONE third of the rural population faces food insecurity. -The government estimates that unemployment is at least 32%. -Mauritania lost eligibility for AGOA and an MCC Threshold Program following the August 2008 coup d'etat. -Mauritania has received only a small percentage of the USD 2.1 billion pledged at the 2007 Mauritania Consultative Group meeting in Paris, France. Following the coup, many donors did not fulfill their pledges. The new Government has suggested the need for a new conference based on a new development plan. IV. WORKERS' RIGHTS/CHILD LABOR/HUMAN RIGHTS ¶A. Major Strengths Identified -The right to organize labor unions was recognized in 1993 and a number of unions exist. Most workers may form and join unions of their choice without authorization or excessive requirements. Unions may organize workers freely without government or employer interference. -The minimum age for the employment of children is 14 in the non-agricultural sector and 13 in the agricultural sector. -Mauritania has ratified all eight core ILO conventions, including Conventions 182 on the worst forms of child labor and 138 on the minimum wage. -The labor code includes criminal penalties for human trafficking in all of its recognized forms and includes increased penalties for cases dealing with forced labor. -The government enacted a new law in 2008 criminalizing the practice of slavery, which included a budget of approximately USD 7.5 million for a national antislavery campaign to eradicate all forms of slavery, but the law has not been actively enforced since the 2008 coup d'etat and nobody has been convicted under this law. -UNICEF, the World Food Program and other international NGOs are active and instrumental in providing programs that enhance children's welfare in Mauritania. -The governments of Mauritania and the UAE established a repatriation and reintegration program in 2007 for child camel jockeys from Mauritania working in the UAE. The program compensated 497 child jockeys with amounts between USD 1,000-USD 6,000 per child. ¶B. Major Issues/Problems Identified -According to the Department of State's 2009 Trafficking in Persons Report, Mauritania is a Tier 3 country primarily due to issues related to the remaining vestiges of slavery in Mauritanian society. -Following the August 2008 coup d'etat, the military junta restricted freedom of assembly by denying demonstration permits to groups opposed to the coup and using tear gas and clubs to disburse anti-coup demonstrators. -During and after the August 2008 coup d'etat the military arrested a number of political figures and journalists without charge or hearings. Arbitrary arrests and detention were noted in 2008 and 2009. -The government inconsistently and ineffectively enforces labor laws, including child labor laws. -Mauritania does not have a national policy or program of action for the elimination of the worst forms of child labor. Children continue to work in the informal sector, primarily in agriculture in rural areas and driving donkey carts in the urban areas. Young boys known as "talibes" commonly beg in the streets as part of a "work-study" arrangement with religious teachers called marabouts. -Although slavery is illegal, slavery-related practices, including voluntary servitude continue to occur. -Discrimination against women and female genital mutilation (FGM) occur in Mauritania. -Trafficking in persons and the political marginalization of the largely southern-based African ethnic groups are problems. ¶V. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM/U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY ¶A. Major Strengths Identified -Mauritania is a part of the Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Partnership, a U.S.-led regional counter-terrorism program. -President Aziz used the fight against terrorism in Mauritania as a major campaign pledge. Despite political difficulties between the U.S. and Mauritania following the 2008 coup d'etat, cooperation on counter-terrorism issues remains strong and the Mauritanians have devoted substantial resources in building their counter-terrorism capabilities. -Mauritanian authorities continue to be committed to arresting suspected terrorists. They are currently holding a number of suspected terrorists who are awaiting trial. Several have been tried and are serving prison sentences. -The government has made several seizures of drugs being trafficked through Mauritania. ¶B. Major Issues/Problems Identified - On August 8, 2009 there was a suicide bombing near the French Embassy in Nouakchott, in which two French guards and one Mauritanian citizen were injured. - On June 23, 2009, a private American citizen was shot and killed in Nouakchott in an apparent kidnapping attempt by individuals sympathetic to, or directly tasked by Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). -There have been four other terrorist attacks in Mauritanian since December of 2007 carried out by groups affiliated with AQIM. -The justice system is ill-equipped to handle security cases. HANKINS