OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL MAURITANIAN VIEWS ON GUINEA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000655

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2019
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV MR GV
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL MAURITANIAN VIEWS ON GUINEA

Classified By: CDA Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: On October 8, African Affairs Director for
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ambassador Mohamed Habib Ball
shared with PolOff Mauritania's official position on the
Guinean crisis as well as his personal insights. According
to Ball, Mauritanians, who have not yet issued an official
statement, will follow the African Union (AU),the
Organization of the Islamic Conference (OCI) and the
International Organization of the Francophonie's (OIF) lead.
Mauritania welcomes Burkinabe President Blaise Campaore's
mediation but at the same time calls for the respect of
Guinean sovereignty. On a personal level, Ball said he was
disgusted by the events and thought Dadis Camara should not
be a candidate. He thinks international intervention may be
necessary -- preferably under the United Nations (UN) and the
European Union (EU) rather than the AU -- given the potential
for full blown conflict within the military and violence
against civilians. In his view, Dadis Camara is "finished"
and the crisis will be solved quickly, most likely through
Camara's assassination at the hands of his fellow coup
companions. Although he avoided drawing parallels between
the Mauritanian and Guinean situation, Ball stated the recent
wave of coups and the international community's approach to
them has had a destabilizing effect on the continent.
Mauritanian opposition, much less circumspect in its remarks,
has stated that the Mauritanian coup and the role played by
the international community in legitimizing it, have set a
negative example for people like Camara to follow. End
summary.


2. (C) Ball stressed that Mauritania has not yet issued a
statement or taken an official position. However, as an AU,
OIC and Francophonie member, it will adopt these
organizations' posture. Nevertheless, Ball stated that
Mauritania respects other countries' sovereignty and does not
wish to meddle in their affairs. Mauritania supports
Campaore's mediation and hopes the outcome will be positive.
When asked about what Mauritania's position would be if Dadis
Camara decided to run for office, a cautious Ball stressed
that was not yet the case. PolOff also pressed him about
what Mauritania's role would be in the crisis if it were
asked to play one and he said Mauritania would likely
facilitate dialogue between both parties to the crisis to
help bring back peace and stability.


3. (C) After stating the official position, Ball said "off
the record" that he was disgusted with the massacres and
rapes and that for him Dadis Camara was worse than Idi Amin.
In his view, the real bone of contention is whether or not
Camara will run as he has already agreed to the formation of
a transitional government of national unity and to an
investigation of the massacres. Ball thinks Camara should
not run for office and hopes President Campaore will dissuade
him. In his view, the crisis will be solved in the next two
weeks but the situation right now is potentially explosive.
First, Camara is desperate and could unleash unprecedented
chaos and violence as he feels he has nothing to lose.
Second, the possibility of an internal war within the
military should not be ruled out. He stated he had already
heard reports of quarrels between Camara and elements of the
Army and that a skirmish took place at the barracks on
October 7. Ball thinks that Camara is "as good as dead."
Camara's murder at the hands of the Commander of the
Presidential Guard should not be ruled out. Camara's coup
companions could then negotiate with the international
community to save themselves and turn over power to the
civilians. Many in the military, said Ball, no longer
support Camara now that the international community has
turned its back on him. According to him, they want to calm
the situation as they do not want to be judged for abuses
unleashed by Camara's nothing to lose attitude. Ball
believes no country would welcome Camara if he decided to
leave, except for one which he said, tongue in cheek, he
would not name.


4. (C) When asked about international intervention, Ball
said he thought it would be necessary but the AU, despite its
principled position, did not have the means to intervene.
For Ball, the most appropriate and effective intervention
would be by the UN and EU. He stated the international

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community needed to act quickly and decisively as empty
statements and unenforced resolutions would lead the country
into chaos. He believes the Guinea Conakry crisis could also
have a spillover effect in Guinea Bissau and Senegal.


5. (C) Comment: Ball carefully avoided drawing comparisons
between Mauritania and Guinea. Nevertheless, it is not
difficult to guess what he really thinks as he stated that
the new wave of coup d'etats in Africa was sending the
continent on a downward spiral. The Guinea massacre and
crisis has drawn strong condemnation from Mauritanian
opposition leaders, who have stated the Mauritanian coup and
its outcome have set a bad example for the continent as well
as the role played by the international community --
particularly Spain and France -- in legitimizing it. End
comment.
HANKINS