MAURITANIAN ELECTION CHRONICLES FOR JULY 8 --

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000443 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MR SUBJECT: MAURITANIAN ELECTION CHRONICLES FOR JULY 8 -- ATTACKS AND COUNTER-ATTACKS ¶1. (U) The OIF will send observers: The Organisation internationale de la francophonie (OIF) confirmed on July 8 it will send an observer mission headed by former President of Burundi Pierre Buyoya. ¶2. (U) Aziz comes forward as the real author of the 2005 coup: During a political rally in Atar, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz declared "he is the real artisan of the 2005 coup d'etat." According to Aziz, Vall was "sound asleep when the coup happened." ¶3. (U) Zeidane endorses Daddah: Former Prime Minister Zeine Ould Zeidane came out of his usual silence to announce his support of RFD's Ahmed Ould Daddah. In 2007, Zeidane was the third runner up to the presidency with 15 percent of the vote. In that election's second tour, Zeidane gave his support to Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, precipitating Daddah's defeat. Zeidane is a political figure closely tied to former dictator Ould Taya. Rumor has it that Ould Taya's Smasside tribe, formerly an enemy of Daddah, is backing the RFD in this election. ¶4. (U) Aziz is richer than General Powell: Presidential candidate Messaoud Ould Boulkheir highlighted in a rally in Selibaby that American General Colin Powell retired modestly after serving for decades in important positions whereas General Aziz has "castles and an immense fortune." Messaoud stated this fortune certainly did not come from his modest Mauritanian officer salary. ¶5. (U) Aziz TV: According to press reports, private TV channel DAVA belongs to Aziz. The channel broadcasts 24-hour music and Aziz's electoral campaign activities. Rumor has it that the equipment was provided by Qadhafi and that the studios are located at state-television TV Mauritania. Mauritanians are puzzled at the emergence of this new channel as the law calling for the liberalization of television in Mauritania has not been passed. The High Authority of the Press and the Audiovision (HAPA) stated it never authorized this new channel. ¶6. (U) Aziz states the HCE still exists: During an appearance in TVM, a stressed out Aziz stated: "the High State Council is still around. No, it's not dissolved. And the government, the Prime Minister, were appointed by me. It's the same government of the period following August 6. That is the government that directs the 18-day government. And the international community, which did not recognize me, came to implore me to accept an arrangement. I did not have any money. But now I do. I have money." ¶7. (U) Mansour calls for an anti-Israel charter: Jemil Ould Mansour, presidential candidate for the moderate Islamist party TAWASSOUL, called presidential candidates to sign a charter against re-establishing relations with Israel. ¶8. (C) Comment -- Aziz' Outbursts: During the July 8 meeting of the ICG, the European Commission noted with concern General Aziz' Atar speech (para. 3) that implicitly threatens another coup if he does not get elected. Aziz' televised comments (para. 5 and 6) portray even further evidence of a tough guy approach to the elections. In discussions with local staff, Mauritanian's note Aziz is using "fear" as a strategy -- signaling to his opponents and to the vested political class that he will come after them as part of his "campaign against corruption" if they do not fall in line. Discussion of possible future coups threaten the political class that he will not give up without a fight no matter what the voters might say. It is extremely difficult to divide fact from rumor in the highly charged political atmosphere of the campaign; however, some observers say Aziz is "losing it." He is said to be blowing up at his staff as he begins to question whether he can win the elections despite his ten months of preparation. The international community witnessed this trait in his yelling match with President Wade at the close of Wade's mediation trip to Nouakchott. Every campaign speech is a new litany of threats against his opponents. Serious debate revolves around Aziz' probable reaction if he does not win. Most assume he would NOUAKCHOTT 00000443 002 OF 002 try to take power back by force but many question whether he would gain support for a third coup. His own tribe can side with his cousin Col. Vall who emerged from the 2005-2007 political transition with general praise from the international community (despite his rather voracious corruption). The strongly anti-coup Taqadoumy website claims that Aziz had tried to order the arrest of Ould Boulkheir's and Ould Daddah's campaign managers only to be counter-manded by General Ghazwany. We do not know if this report is true -- but cite as an indicator that the military and security forces may not follow Aziz again. ¶9. (C) Comment Continued -- Crystal Ball: A focus group of local staff had mixed views of how the election would advance though almost all saw Aziz moving forward to the second round. Our senior Public Affairs LES (who the rest of the group said was "spot on" in his predictions during the 2007 election tends to discount the importance of both Col. Vall and Ahmed Ould Daddah -- saying Vall has more respect abroad than in Mauritania and that Ould Daddah will be hard pressed to improve on his intelligensia and home province-based results of 2007 (when he polled 21% in the first round). This LES (with most of the others agreeing) expects an Aziz - Ould Boulkheir runoff. It is expected that Ould Boulkheir (or Ould Daddah if he should get into the runoff instead) will receive the support of his anti-coup partners. Interestingly, LES staff suggest that Afro-Mauritanian candidate Ibrahima Moctar Sarr (who polled 8% in 2007) will likely not support Ould Boulkheir who, while black, is an Arab black, not African. Vall's support is then seen as key with the key question being whether tribal interests will lead him to support his cousin Aziz or whether the blood is so bad between the two that he will support an opposition candidate. LES believe he will follw what is being called the TSA movement (Tous Sauf Aziz) and support anyone who is not Aziz. BOULWARE