MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NOUAKCHOTT 000414 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM MR SUBJECT: MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 21-25 REF: A. NOUAKCHOTT 406 ¶B. NOUAKCHOTT 408 ¶C. DAKAR 792 ¶D. DAKAR 793 ¶E. NOUAKCHOTT 411 ¶F. NOUAKCHOTT 413 Classified By: CDA DENNIS HANKINS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B AND D) ¶1. (C) Summary: This week, the parties to the crisis traveled to Dakar to negotiate the future of the High State Council (HSC),an issue that has been blocking the implementation of the Accord for the past two weeks. The parties were unable to reach a consensus, obliging President Wade to rush to Nouakchott to try and save the Accord. General Aziz's interim government unilaterally signed a decree convening the electoral college for a July 18 election and the decree was rejected by the Constitutional Council. AQIM claimed responsibility for the June 23 murder of American citizen Christopher Leggett and Taqadoumy journalist Hannavi Ould Daha remained in jail. End summary ¶2. (C) Charge meets with Prime Minister Waghef: Charge met with President Abdallahi's Prime Minister Waghef for the first time since his release from prison (Ref A). ¶3. (C) Charge meets with Ely Vall: Charge met with Presidential candidate Ely Vall to discuss his outlook for the election (Ref B). ¶4. (C) No results after Dakar talks: US Ambassador to Senegal Bernicat and PolOff attended Dakar talks from June 20-23. Parties to the Mauritanian political crisis were unable to find a consensus regarding the status of the HSC (Ref C and D). ¶5. (U) Water shortages in poor Nouakchott neighborhoods: Residents of the "Cinquieme" neighborhood in Nouakchott told PolOff they had not had water since June 22. The price of water barrels has skyrocketed from 300 UM ($1 USD) to 1,500 UM (over $5 USD). ¶6. (U) The government moves forward with unilateral elections: Despite disagreements over the HSC issue and the ongoing negotiations, the interim President of the Republic Ba M'Bare issued a communique on June 24 stating elections will be held on July 18 "in accordance with the Dakar Accord." A decree has been passed convening the electoral college for that date. The deadline for candidacies is June 26 and the electoral campaign will start on July 2. This announcement came as a surprise to the opposition as the Government of National Unity, which according to the Dakar Accord is supposed to oversee the elections, has not been formed. Rumors state that the HSC forced a reluctant M'Bare to sign the decree. The FNDD and RFD published on June 24 a joint press release condemning the passing of the decree as a violation of the Dakar Accord. ¶7. (C) Constitutional Council rejects decree: The Constitutional Council has rejected the June 23 decree convening the electoral college for the July 18 elections. The Council stated the decree is anti-constitutional as the Dakar Accord mandates that the elections be organized by the Government of National Union. The response was well received by opposition parties who were somewhat surprised by the Constitutional Council's willingness to stand up to the regime. ¶8. (C) Ould Maouloud says FNDD and RFD remain united: Charge and PolOff met with FNDD co-President Mohamed Ould Maouloud to seek clarification about the FNDD's position regarding President Abdallahi (Ref E). ¶9. (U) Hannavi still in jail: Mauritanian journalist Hannavi Ould Daha, director of the Taqadoumy website, was arrested on June 18. The police, who did not have an arrest warrant, held him in custody for days without charges and without allowing him to call his lawyer or family. Hannavi has been accused of defamation by AJD presidential candidate Ibrahima Moctar Sarr. Taqadoumy published an article in May accusing Sarr of buying a house with the money General Aziz gave him to run his campaign. ¶10. (U) AQIM claims responsibility for the murder of an American citizen: Christopher Leggett, an American working for Nouakchott-based NGO Noura, was brutally murdered by two gunmen in the morning of June 23. Al-Jazeera TV reported on June 25 they received an audio statement from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claiming responsibility for Leggett's murder for allegedly trying to convert Muslims to Christianity. ¶11. (C) Nouakchott prepares for Wade's visit: Senegalese President Wade is scheduled to arrive in Nouakchott in the afternoon of June 25 for continued talks with the Mauritanian parties to the political crisis. Charge attended a meeting with the Oversight Committee in preparation for Wade's visit (Ref F). ¶12. (SBU) PolOff conversation with Aziz's negotiator Ould Horma: On the flight back from Dakar, PolOff sat next to Ould Horma, who was blunt about negotiation techniques such as stalling and walking away, which were used by his delegation in Dakar. Horma, a campaign strategist for Aziz, also shared his interest in "storytelling" and rumor spreading as campaign weapons. Horma told PolOff Mauritania was interested in increased cooperation with the US but found the US elusive. PolOff brought home the message that cooperation would remain "elusive" as long as the regime insisted on doing coup d'etats, repressing freedom of speech and refusing the basic principle of military accountability to a civilian government. ¶13. (C) Donors getting ready for the future. Both the World Bank and the European Commission have started reaching out to other donors to discuss economic and development priorities should the political crisis be resolved. Most economic observers see the outlook as bleak no matter who wins. Prices for Mauritania's main exports are low and is expected that most mineral and oil companies will limit themselves to exploration now -- holding of investments in production until world prices have risen and a modicum of political stability has been demonstrated. The assumption is that the regime has emptied the government's coffers in an attempt to garner domestic support. Those donors like the EC that had substantial development funds in the pipeline prior to the coup have suspended those programs and transferred the money elsewhere. Most donors assume at least a year-long gap before substantial development funds will be able to come back on stream -- resulting in effectively two "lost years" for Mauritania. HANKINS