MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NOUAKCHOTT 000238 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KPAO KDEM MR SUBJECT: MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK MARCH 29-APRIL 2 REF: A. NOUAKCHOTT 229 ¶B. NOUAKCHOTT 235 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: For the week of March 29-April 2, General Aziz went to Doha to attend the Arab League Summit, while other members of the ruling High State Council traveled around the country to "educate" the population about the "rectification movement" (coup d'etat). The election calendar was set, and fallout continued from President Sarkozy's comments regarding the lack of political opposition to the coup. More secret recordings of President Abdallahi made while he was under detention surfaced, while Ahmed Ould Daddah finally came out and made strong public comments against the coup. The FNDD has pledged to continue with a march planned for April 2, despite the authorities' refusal to grant a permit. End summary. ¶2. (C) "Passive humanitaire" follow-up: In a follow-up to last week's roundup, PolOff visited Afro-Mauritanian and human rights groups over the past week to determine Mauritanian public response to Aziz's effort to "resolve" this sensitive issue (Septel). Additionally, during Aziz's visit to the South to resolve the "passif humanitaire," several mayors refused to welcome him. The mayors of Boghe, Aleg, Koudel, and Tokomadji refused to receive "a dismissed general who maintains power by force through the Presidential Security Battalion." ¶3. (SBU) Aziz goes to Doha: General Aziz attended the March 30 Arab League Summit in Doha, Qatar. In his speech before the assembly, Aziz highlighted the importance of Arab cooperation, particularly in the economic sphere, and called on Arab countries to come and invest in Mauritania. Afterwards, Aziz met with the Emir of Qatar, Iraqi PM Nouri Al-Maliki, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and Sudanese President Omar El-Bashir. State-run media did not elaborate on the substance of the meetings. On his return to Mauritania, Aziz made a brief stop in Algeria (a country that has opposed the coup up to now) but it is unknown for now who he met with. ¶4. (SBU) HSC members travel: Several members of the High State Council traveled around the country to speak to towns and villages about the "rectification movement" and exhort the populations to vote in the upcoming elections (in an attempt to give the elections some legitimacy). Comment: Sending members of the HSC to the interior of the country is a frequent tactic used by Aziz when he is traveling abroad. It keeps the Colonels busy, and more importantly, serves to disrupt any possible counter-coup planning that may be in the works. End comment. ¶5. (SBU) Election calendar set: The High State Council issued a decree March 29 specifying important dates for the upcoming elections. The final list of candidates will be determined April 30. The campaign will start May 21 and end June 4, while the first round of the election will be June 6. A second round, if necessary, will be held June 20. ¶6. (SBU) Disagreements over CENI membership: The junta is holding consultations to designate a President for the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). Former Minister of the Interior Mohamed Ahmed Ould Mohamed Lemine, brother of current Minister of Defense Mohamed Mahmoud Ould Mehamed Lemine, is a likely candidate. Sociologue Cheikh Saad Bouh Camara, an Afro-Mauritanian who participated in the 2005-2007 CENI, could also be nominated (although Camara is reportedly upset over the release of a taped conversation between him and President Abdallahi while the President was being held under house arrest). The FNDD and Ould Daddah's RFD party refused to take part in these consultations as they do not recognize the June 6 election. ¶7. (SBU) RFD defections: On March 29 over 500 RFD members NOUAKCHOTT 00000238 002 OF 003 announced their resignation from Ould Daddah's party in favor of Aziz's candidacy. They said they were impressed with the General's achievements in his short time in the Presidency. Aziz was welcomed by high-level RFD party members during his visit to the Brakna and the Gorgol regions, further highlighting schisms within the party. ¶8. (SBU) Sarkozy fallout: Fallout continued from French President Sarkozy's comments stating there were "no demonstrations" against the coup in Mauritania (Ref A). The FNDD and National Assembly President Messaoud Ould Boulkheir strongly condemned his statements, while state-run media wasted no time in highlighting his remarks and using them to their own advantage. ¶9. (C) Singing the praises of Taya: On March 31, TV Mauritanie broadcast 15 minutes of chants (in Pulaar) praising former President Maaouiya Ould Taya. An investigation into the incident has been opened. Comment: A PAO LES with sources at TV Mauritanie said this was a mistake, not a sign of Taya support within state-run media. PAO LES reports that technicians frequently reuse tapes, and neglected to erase the tape completely before reusing it. End comment. ¶10. (C) Haidallah wants stability: PolAsst met March 30 with former President Haidallah, who emphasized the importance of stability, provided tacit support to Aziz, and clear support for June 6 elections (Ref B). ¶11. (C) Leaked recordings continue: The popular news site "Taqadoumy" continued to post recordings made during President Abdallahi's detention in the Palais de Congres after the August 2008 coup. This brings the total number of recordings released so far to three. The first recording between Abdallahi and Colonels Hadi and Meguett caused a sensation in the press. The second and third recordings involved Abdallahi and human rights organizations and Qatari mediators, respectively. Taqadoumy Editor-in-Chief Cheikh Tijani Ould Isselmou (protect) stated to PolAsst and PAO in a March 26 meeting that the recordings were sent anonymously to Taqadoumy Publisher Mohamed El Hanefi Ould Dahah (who currently lives in the US). Comment: Rumors are swirling as to the source of the leak. The three main theories are: (1) Aziz (or one of his close associates) leaked the recordings in an effort to discredit and embarrass General Hadi. The theory is that Hadi has shown himself to be a little too power-hungry for Aziz's liking, so he is looking for ways to discredit him and remove him as head of DGSN to head off any counter-coups. (2) Vall orchestrated the leaks to embarrass the High State Council. Supposedly Hadi's office was broken into a few weeks before the recordings were released; the theory is that Vall wanted to demonstrate that he still wields significant influence in the security services. (3) Someone at a very high level in the High State Council with access to the recordings acted on their own initiative to leak the recordings. Some more off-the-wall conspiracy theorists see either the CIA or Mossad behind the leaks -- in punishment for the Israeli expulsion. End comment. ¶12. (SBU) Daddah finally comes off the fence: Ahmed Ould Daddah's RFD party held its first ever anti-coup rally April 1 at Capital Stadium in Nouakchott. Attendance estimates placed the crowd at several thousand people. The rally was well-organized, with buses bringing in supporters (particularly young supporters) from the poorer neighborhoods of Nouakchott. Police were stationed around the stadium to prevent supporters from taking to the streets and marching, but did not intervene in the rally. In his speech, Daddah stated publicly that the events of August 6, 2008 were a "coup d'etat" (not a "rectification movement") and that he would not participate in the upcoming elections. He praised the FNDD leaders, several of whom were in attendance, including National Assembly President Messaoud Ould Boulkheir, UFP President Mohamed Ould Maouloud, and Tawassoul President Jemil Ould Mansour. (Interestingly, the mayor of Nouakchott Ahmed Ould Hamza was in the front row as well. NOUAKCHOTT 00000238 003 OF 003 Hamza has changed positions regarding the coup in the past, but appears to be firmly in the anti-coup camp for now). Furthermore, Daddah said it was time to "take to the streets" to stop the military's agenda, and called on his supporters to attend an FNDD march planned for the afternoon of April 2. ¶13. (C) FNDD march planned: As noted in Para 12, the FNDD has planned an anti-coup march in Nouakchott for April 2, and Ahmed Ould Daddah has encouraged his RFD supporters to attend as well. The municipal authorities have refused to grant a permit for the march, but the FNDD has said it will proceed anyway. RSO has learned that the Wali of Nouakchott has already received authorization to directly command the Gendarmerie to maintain civil order. RSO FSNI states that this is the first time the Wali has been granted authorization prior to an event. (Normally, the Wali must formally request Gendarmerie assistance from the Chief-of-Staff after a situation has spiraled out of control.) Post will follow the situation closely. ¶14. (C) European visits: Charge met with several of his European counterparts this week to obtain reactions to Sarkozy's recent comments and gauge the current sentiment among the European countries (Septel). ¶15. (C) Imam provides information: PolOff met April 2 with Imam Abdallahi Ould Cheikh Sid Mohamed at his request. The Imam said Aziz planned to transition the presidency before elections to Rosso Senator and Ouled Bisbaa tribesman Mohcen Ould El Hadj instead of Senate President Ba Mamadou M'Bare. He stated that a contact at the presidential palace had provided him with the information. He also said that Colonel Ely Ould Mohamed Vall told him he intended to run for president but would not announce his candidacy until the last minute. The Imam warned the Embassy that Mattel and Mauritel cell phone and telephone networks are tapped by the regime. The reliability of the information provided by the Imam has not been established. HANKINS