MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000182 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO PROP MR SUBJECT: MAURITANIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 1-5 REF: A. NOUAKCHOTT 167 ¶B. NOUAKCHOTT 170 ¶C. NOUAKCHOTT 175 ¶D. 08 NOUAKCHOTT 717 ¶E. NOUAKCHOTT 177 ¶F. NOUAKCHOTT 176 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: For the week of March 1-5, the Israelis were asked to leave Mauritania by the MFA. Muammar Qadhafi's planned visit to Mauritania continues to generate excitement in the press, but more tempered reactions among the political class. The government continues planning for June 6 presidential elections, while pro-High State Council and pro-Aziz partisans are beginning to organize political parties. Finally, President Abdallahi is scheduled to depart from Nouakchott March 6 to go to Libya to meet with Qadhafi. End summary. ¶2. (C) Israelis asked to leave: The Israeli ambassador was convoked by the MFA March 1 and asked to close their embassy and leave (Ref A). (Note: In a March 2 message to Secretary Clinton, junta "Foreign Minister" Mohamed Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou said that Mauritania "still maintains relations with Israel." End note.) The Israeli ambassador will quietly leave Nouakchott March 6 or 7, while the rest of the Israeli staff will remain for the time being (Ref F). ¶3. (C) Meeting with Colonel Vall: Charge met with Colonel Ely Ould Mohamed Vall March 1 at his residence. Charge had last met Vall in early December (Ref D) and found Vall even more critical of Aziz than before. Vall said, "I am convinced nobody in the political class -- including his own purported supporters -- has any confidence Aziz will succeed" ("success" being defined as being able to complete a "democratic" transition which sees him elected as a president legitimate in the eyes of both Mauritanians and the international community). That said, Vall believed Aziz would move forward with June elections, "because he has no other strategy available." He saw some Europeans would continue to push for reluctant acceptance of an Aziz government but warned that, "any Aziz government will be repressive -- stamping out any opposition voices. I've seen what happens if you try to suppress expression. If Aziz is president, it is just a question of time before someone -- be it the Islamists, Afro-Mauritanians, or an aggrieved tribe -- responds to that repression with the only option available -- violence." Vall dismissed as "hypocrisy" the argument put forward by Aziz, and accepted by countries like Spain and Germany, that security and stability can only be assured through a firm military hand. "All the weaknesses in our security came under military rule. Aziz accuses Abdallahi of failing to protect Mauritania as president even though Aziz himself had full control of everything security-wise." ¶4. (C) Vall Political Activities: A new internal group offering its services as a mediator made the rounds last week. Ostensibly under the leadership of former minister and former head of the Bar Association Mohfoudh Ould Bettah, the group is largely considered to represent Vall. Charge and PolOff met with representatives of the group on March 1 who said they had met with all political leaders and saw space for a political dialogue without the military -- even as they recognized the departure of the military was the key obstacle to any political resolution. Charge asked Vall whether the group actually represented him. He avoided a response but proceeded to raise the same issues raised by the group for the need to create a political consensus outside the realm of Aziz' influence. FNDD leaders confirm they have met with the Ould Bettah group but all voiced deep suspicion. President of the National Assembly Ould Boulkheir said "Vall is no more a democrat than Aziz." Presidential Chief of Staff Hammoudi said the FNDD still believes Vall and Aziz are working together for their tribal interests -- agreeing that the one most likely to gain permanent power will eventually get the NOUAKCHOTT 00000182 002 OF 002 support of the other. FNDD rotating President Abeidna said that the three powers of the tribe -- Aziz, Vall, and financier Bouamatou had met before the February 20 ICG-M meeting. At the meeting, the tribe's position was that Aziz would have to step aside since he was going to be unable to gain legitimacy. Aziz reportedly agreed "if the international community will accept Vall." Abeidna claims the French signaled that Vall is not acceptable to them, therefore Aziz told the tribe he would continue with his present course of action. Abeidna claims the barbs between Vall and Aziz are meant to give the image of two distinct options while, in fact, "they're a tag-team that agrees whoever is best positioned to win will get the seat." ¶5. (SBU) Qadhafi visit to Mauritania: Numerous local press reports state that Libyan head of state Muammar Qadhafi will visit Mauritania, most likely arriving sometime during the weekend March 7-8. All hotels and auberges in Nouakchott are completely booked for the next 10 days, and several Libyan planes have arrived in Nouakchott carrying vehicles, security personnel, and other equipment to support the "Guide's" visit. Up to 2500 foreign guests have been invited for the prayer that Qadhafi will lead on the Prophet Mohammed's birthday (March 10). ¶6. (U) Election/referendum planning accelerates: While the political crisis unfolds, the government continues planning early elections. This week, the Senate adopted two law projects concerning the requirements to become a presidential candidate and the right to vote for Mauritanians living abroad -- these laws complement the late February creation of an independent national electoral commission (CENI). A list of CENI members is expected to appear soon. The government also signed a convention launching a third administrative census from March 5 to April 5 to establish reliable electoral lists. Le Calame newspaper reported meetings of two interministerial committees to plan the election and the census, stressing that General Aziz is steadily and unilaterally consolidating his election calendar. Finally, the junta's "Human Rights Commissioner" Mohamed Lemine Ould Dadde invited the UN Human Rights Council to send observers to monitor the June election. ¶7. (C) Pro-Aziz political parties: According to local press reports, General Aziz pushed hard on parliamentarians and others to form a single unified party supporting the High State Council before Qadhafi's arrival later in the week. However, due to disagreements within the pro-coup ranks, two political parties supporting the High State Council and "rectification movement" will be formed. One of the parties will unconditionally support Aziz and the HSC (not unlike the monolithic PRDS party under President Taya),while the other party wants to maintain some independence from the HSC. PolOff and PolAsst met March 5 with Cheikh Sid Ahmed Ould Baba, a pro-coup parliamentarian in the process of forming a new political party that falls into the second camp (i.e., will maintain more distance from the HSC). A cable of the meeting will be forthcoming (Septel). ¶8. (C) President Abdallahi visit to Libya: Although the FNDD and Abdallahi put forth numerous conditions for a visit to Libya (Ref B, Ref C) it now appears likely that Abdallahi will visit Muammar Qadhafi in Libya on March 6 (Ref E). Abdallahi will travel without a passport (he refused to travel under a passport designating him a "former President"). HANKINS