CYPRUS:UNSG SPECIAL ADVISER DOWNER UPBEAT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000402 DEPT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV TR UNFICYP CY SUBJECT: CYPRUS:UNSG SPECIAL ADVISER DOWNER UPBEAT ON PROCESS AND HOPEFUL ON LIMNITIS/YESILIRMAK OPENING REF: A. URBANCIC-BRYZA JUNE 19 E-MAIL ¶B. NICOSIA 327 ¶C. NICOSIA 306 ¶D. NICOSIA 257 Classified By: Ambassador Frank C. Urbancic for reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) "There has a been a (positive) sea change in attitude in the negotiations," UNSG Special Adviser Alexander Downer confided to the Ambassador in a June 19 meeting. Downer said that both Greek Cypriot Leader Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot Leader Mehmet Ali Talat were "feeling their mortality" and edging towards a mental decision that an agreement is "inevitable." Regarding the stalled opening of the Limnitis/Yesilirmak crossing point, Downer said that both sides had made concessions and that the Leaders' representatives (George Iacovou and Ozdil Nami) had reached an "Ad referendum" agreement that the leaders, both of whom were off island, still had to sign off on. Consequently, the deal was "not completely agreed, but probably agreed", according to Downer. The Ambassador said that USG would work to assist in financing the opening, to which Downer expressed much appreciation. Downer asked the Ambassador to identify short-term, non-USG, AMCIT experts, preferably with experience in the Balkans, to work on issues of security, fiscal federalism, and the economy, adding that the Greek Cypriots had already responded favorably to a US property expert. The Ambassador said that the Embassy would work with Washington to accommodate his request. Downer, who plans to be in the US in mid-September, hoped to meet EUR A/S Gordon. Downer also queried the Ambassador regarding the possible appointment of a US Special Envoy for Cyprus. The Ambassador said that no decision had been reached regarding an envoy. He also encouraged Downer to speak with A/S Gordon before his planned Washington trip. End Summary. -------------- "Sea Change in Attitude" -------------- ¶2. (C) Downer said that there had been a positive "sea change in attitude" in the negotiations over the past ten days, half joking that the sides had starting to feed back his (Downer's) own arguments to him. In response to the Ambassador's question, he said that both Talat and Christofias had begun to think that indeed a solution "was inevitable" given that the cost of "failure" would be immense. The blunt, former politician said that "Talat and Christofias need this deal, or they are screwed politically." Although he warned that "random" factors could intervene, he said that the Greek Cypriots had starting to rethink their strategy of pressing Turkey on implementation of the Ankara Protocols at the end of 2009. In fact, the Greek Cypriots had begun to seek more advice, which Downer dubbed a "complete" change over their past behavior. As proof, he pointed to the positive welcome both sides gave to the recent arrival of a US lawyer and expert on property, Jeff Bates. In response to the Ambassador's question, he said that he thought the G/Cs wanted a "practical deal" on property. He praised T/C negotiator Ozdil Nami, adding that he was "as determined as himself" to forge a solution. -------------- -------------- Limnitis/Yesilirmak: "Not Completely Agreed, Probably Agreed" -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Downer, just back that day from negotiations with Iacovou and Nami over the opening of the Limnitis/Yesilirmak crossing point, said that the issue had reached "critical mass" and must be solved, adding, however, that going forward he did not want to spend excessive time on CBMs. He said both sides had made concessions and had reached an "ad referendum" agreement that the leaders, both of whom were off island at the time, still needed to approve. He said that the T/Cs had backed off an "extravagant claim" to allow any T/C vehicle at any time, not just scheduled buses under UNFICYP escort, to use the crossing to enter the T/C enclave/military base at Kokkina. In turn, the G/Cs dropped their demand for full inspection of all non-lethal goods to be shipped to Kokkina and agreed, upon Downer's suggestion, that it would be sufficient if the Turkish Army presented a manifest to UNFICYP, which reserved the right to inspect the shipments in the buffer zone. This compromise was also acceptable to the T/Cs, he said. The Turkish Cypriot demand to ship a limited amount of fuel overland remained on the table, however, and Downer hoped they would eventually withdraw this. (Note: Talat's Spokesman Hasan Ercakica, as well as T/C negotiating team member Mehmet Dana, told us last week that the only real "deal breaker" at present is the inspection of goods to Kokkina. End Note) 4 (C) Downer said that Nami and Iacovou would meet again on June 23 and 24 to work on territory as well as make sure the Limnitis deal was "hunky dory." In short, Downer said the deal was "not completely agreed, (but) probably agreed." Should the leaders agree to the "Ad referendum" agreement, Downer said Christofias and Talat will announce the opening at their up-coming June 26 meeting. He added that, although the road construction will take 6-12 months, ambulances in emergency situations could use the opening as early as the following week. Ambassador met again with Downer on June 21, shortly after Downer had breakfast with Talat. Downer believed Talat had secured agreement to open the crossing and that it would be announced June 26. ¶5. (C) The UNSG Special Adviser expressed genuine appreciation when the Ambassador said that the USG was working to contribute approximately $900,000 to finance the opening. Downer said that around 5,000,000 euro was needed to upgrade the road, both in the buffer zone and on the T/C side, with about half the work to done in the buffer zone. He said that the Greek Cypriots certainly were able to pay for all of it, but, given T/C sensitivities, their money would have to first be "laundered" through the UNDP. The Ambassador agreed that using UNDP as a focal point for donations had worked in the past with other projects and would be a wise step. -------------- Downer Seeks US Experts -------------- ¶6. (C) The irrepressibly pro-American Downer asked the Ambassador if the USG could assist in identifying short-term, non-USG AMCIT experts on security, fiscal federalism, and the economy. He said that he wanted to capitalize on the recent G/C positive shift to the utilization of outside experts and needed "ideas, ideas, and ideas." Downer dubbed the recently engaged AMCIT property lawyer a "mine of ideas" and said that the process needed a "common law" approach, not a "civil law" one as had been embodied by previous EU experts, one of which he dubbed "terribly narrow." Downer said it was especially important to try to find an alternative to the "Treaty of Guarantees", adding, however, that,"between me and you", there was likely no alternative in fact. The G/Cs, he said, would, at the end of the day, likely have to accept its continuation, albeit with a "sunset clause", presumably pegged to future Turkish EU accession. The Ambassador said that the U.S. was looking for ways to be constructive, and seconding experts to the UN for work with the two sides made sense. He pledged to work to find candidates. (Note: Downer's Assistant Sonja Brachman later told the Ambassador and Poloff that it would be better if any candidates did not have Annan Plan experience. End Note) Downer emphasized that any U.S. experts must also be from the private sector or leading academic institutions. The GCs would accept no USG links. ¶7. (C) Downer, in what has by now become a routine question, asked the Ambassador about the possible appointment of a US Special Envoy for Cyprus. The Ambassador said that there were no developments and no serious discussion, but that the issue was being examined. The Ambassador informed Downer, who will be off island until around the second week of July, that DAS Matt Bryza was tentatively planning a trip for June 29-30. He also encouraged him to talk to EUR A/S Philip Gordon as soon as possible and said that the Embassy would work to set up meetings in the government for him should his September 2009 trip to Washington materialize. Urbancic