CYPRUS/NATO: EP REPORT PUTS GOVERNMENT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000148

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR CY TU
SUBJECT: CYPRUS/NATO: EP REPORT PUTS GOVERNMENT ON
DEFENSIVE OVER PFP

Classified By: DCM Jonathan Cohen, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)



1. (C) SUMMARY: A recently-approved European Parliament (EP) report
on EU-NATO relations has sent Cypriot President Demetris Christofias
and his Communist AKEL party into another anti-Alliance tizzy. Of
concern to the government was a last-minute amendment, tabled by a
right-leaning Cypriot European Parliamentarian (MEP),calling on
Cyprus to review its opposition to, and apply for membership in, the
Partnership for Peace (PfP). Government spin-control began
immediately after the report's approval on February 19, with
Christofias claiming that PfP membership for Cyprus ran counter to
his vision of a demilitarized island. All parties save AKEL have
restated their support for PfP. Politically cornered, Christofias
and AKEL's opposition to the Alliance likely will spike, making a
Cypriot application to PfP even more remote in the short- to medium
term. END SUMMARY.

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Parliamentary Procedure Leaves Government Fuming
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2. (U) News of the pending European Parliament report broke locally
on February 19. Brussels-based Cypriot journalists wrote that the
study, penned by French MEP Ari Vatanen, concerned the role of NATO
within the security framework of the EU. The EP's Foreign Affairs
Committee had adopted an amendment proposed by Cypriot MEP Yiannakis
Matsis that called on the RoC to reconsider its current stance and
apply for membership in NATO's Partnership for Peace. Pundits
predicted a close fight in the EP plenary; Cypriot MEPs were divided,
the two AKEL parliamentarians opposing adoption of the report and the
remaining four supporting it.


3. (SBU) Vatanen's report was endorsed on February 19 by a vote of
293-283 with 60 abstentions. An accompanying EP press release
deplored that "the Turkey-Cyprus dispute continues to badly impair
the development of EU-NATO cooperation, given that Turkey refuses to
allow Cyprus to participate in European Security and Defense Policy
(ESDP) missions involving NATO intelligence, while Cyprus refuses to
allow Turkey to engage in the overall development of ESDP to an
extent commensurate with Turkey's military weight and strategic
importance."

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Delight in Being Odd Man Out -- A Bit of Background
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4. (C) President Demetris Christofias's AKEL is Europe's
pound-for-pound champion Communist party. As AKEL Secretary General,
a post he abandoned only in January, Christofias displayed a passion
for NATO-bashing, blaming the organization for many of the world's
ills. Rhetorical levels dropped only slightly his election to the
presidency in February 2008; in a November official visit to Moscow,
the Soviet-educated President basked in declaring himself "Europe's
Red Sheep," promised to promote in EU fora Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev's proposal for a new European security architecture, and
told the press that Cyprus would have no links with NATO as long as
he was around. Despite Moscow's own membership in PfP, AKEL dogma
remains rigid towards the Alliance. In fact, in a 2007 meeting with
PolChief, newly-elected Secretary General Andros Kyprianou claimed
that AKEL's two strongest "OXIs" were NO to casino gambling and NO to
PfP. Kyprianou told media on February 24 that NATO violates
international law and the UN charter, and is "an aggressive
organization that has scattered death and destruction in many corners
of the world."


5. (C) AKEL stands alone among mainstream Greek Cypriot parties in
its opposition to all things NATO. Coalition mate EDEK, for example,
long has included PfP membership among its party priorities, while
DIKO and opposition DISY also voice support. In the run-up to the
February 2008 elections, party leaders and staff of both
then-incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos and challenger Ioannis
Kasoulides's campaign teams promised us that, if elected, a PfP
application would come in the first six months in office -- although
both men predicted Turkey would veto it. Senior Greek Cypriot
National Guard officers as well as Ministry of Defense officials also
favor accession to PfP, seeing the Partnership as vital to improve
their force's capabilities and inter-operability with European
militaries.

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No Hesitation in Opposing
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6. (C) In the face of the Vatanen report's adoption, Government
Spokesman Stephanos Stephanou on February 19 said that the
government, "confronted with the ongoing Turkish invasion and

occupation and engaged in settlement talks," preferred to pursue
demilitarization to filing an application to join a "military
organization." (Note: Christofias's visible appearance February 20
at Russian Armed Forces Day calls into question his ideological
commitment to demilitarization.) Stephanou further claimed that the
government would not seek PfP membership because the President had
not included the step in his election program. Responding two days
later to critics of his Partnership stance who claimed that Cyprus
was isolated in Europe and AKEL isolated in Cyprus, Christofias
argued the he felt no pressures. "PfP is not a European institution,
but a NATO one. We are not bound to join." His ideologically-distant
predecessors Papadopoulos and Glafcos Clerides had opted not to bring
Cyprus closer to the Alliance, the President added.


7. (U) Opposition DISY and EUROKO as well as pro-government EDEK and
DIKO all shot back. DIKO leader and House President Marios Karoyian
called for Cyprus's PfP application soonest, although he acknowledged
the decision belonged solely to the government. EUROKO spokesman
Rikkos Erotokritou called on "stubborn" AKEL to realize that Cyprus's
non-participation in the Partnership excluded it from exploiting
strategic advantages that arose from the island's geographic
location. EDEK faced a more difficult task in convincing the Cypriot
electorate that it continued to favor PfP even though it apparently
had not lobbied for the Vatanen report with fellow European
Socialists. DISY House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Averof
Neophytou was pushing for plenary discussion regarding Cyprus's
stance, according to media reports.

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Comment
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8. (C) Googling Christofias or Kyprianou's pre-2008 public
statements, one finds a trove of "NATO equals death," "Down with
imperialism," and "Yankee go home." While its rise to power has
tempered that message slightly, AKEL has not gone the way of East
Bloc Communist parties to become a Social Democratic force -- the
hammer-and-sickle still flies proudly outside party HQ and East-West
ideology remains square in the party mantra. We therefore doubt AKEL
would abandon its anti-PfP stance even if overwhelming public opinion
demanded an application.


9. (C) Christofias's backbone has proven soft before, however, most
visibly during AKEL's flip-flop over support for the 2004 Annan
Plan. As for the party itself, AKEL not only dropped its opposition
to Cyprus's EU accession early in the decade, but on two other
occasions when it took "principled" stands to satisfy the bases --
its 2007 campaign against adopting the Euro, and its 2008 rejection
of the Lisbon Treaty -- the party did so knowing the measures would
pass regardless, owing to other parties' support for them. There can
be no such passing the buck on PfP, since responsibility to file a
membership would fall solely on Christofias and his government.


10. (C) The Euros plausibly could up the pressure on Cyprus to
become a Partner, a la Vatanen, in hopes of improving EU-NATO
coordination. Even Cyprus ally Russia might want another friend in
PfP and urge Christofias to file. Were Christofias to do a 180 and
apply, and were Turkey to do the currently unthinkable -- holster its
veto and allow the bid to succeed -- it would beg our honest
assessment of whether Nicosia's membership truly would improve
cooperation between the EU and NATO. The answer would surely depend
on the status of the Cyprus Problem talks and offers intriguing food
for thought.
Urbancic