CODEL DURBIN DISCUSSES CYPRUS SOLUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000135

SIPDIS

H FOR SENATOR DURBIN'S OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV CY TU
SUBJECT: CODEL DURBIN DISCUSSES CYPRUS SOLUTION

Classified By: AMB F URBANCIC FOR REASONS 1.5 (B AND D)


1. (C) During February 15-17, Senator Richard Durbin led a
Codel of six persons to Cyprus to discuss progress towards a
solution to the island's division. In their meetings with
Greek Cypriot leaders, including President Chrisotfias, Chief
Negotiator Iacovou, Foreign Minister Kyprianou, and
Opposition leader Anastassiades, two points were repeatedly
made to the Codel:
- The obstacle to a solution is Turkey and especially the
Turkish military. They prevent the Turkish Cypriots from
making the concessions necessary to arrive at negotiated
settlement. As Christofias told the Senator, "the Turkish
military creates problems for Talat; he's not free to
negotiate."
- The only role the United States can usefully play to
generate progress in the talks is to utilize its good
relationship with Turkey, and especially its ties to the
Turkish military, to convince them that continued Turkish
military occupation of Cyprus is unacceptable and will
prevent Turkey's accession to the EU, therefore they should
end the limits they impose on the Turkish Cypriot's ability
to negotiate.


2. (C) During the Codel's meetings with Turkish Cypriot
"president" Talat and Chief Negotiator Nami, the Senator
asked whether they were constrained in the talks by Turkish
pressure. Both acknowledged that northern Cyprus is highly
dependent on Turkey due to the "isolation" imposed by the
ROC. "We can't make an international phone call unless it
goes through Turkey. You can't send me a postcard unless it
has an address in Turkey" said Nami. Talat acknowledged that
if Turkey insisted that the talks end, he would have no
choice but to do so given the "TRNC's" economic and security
reliance on its large neighbor and key donor. However, both
also insisted that Turkey is giving them all the room they
need to negotiate, and that GC insistence that the
negotiations are slow because of Turkish pressure on Talat
is, simply wrong: "when I say no to Christofias, it's because
I say no" Talat told the Senator with some emotion.


3. (C) Interlocutors from both communities agreed that the
two leaders are sincerely pro-solution and offer an historic
opportunity for progress given their similar left-wing
background and years of cooperation when they were both party
leaders. Illustrating this point, GC Chief Negotiator
Iacovou told the Codel that in order to improve Talat's CTP
Party's chances in April 18 parliamentary elections, the two
leaders would drop the current discussions of property issues
due to their difficulty and contentiousness, and move on to
economic governance; an area in which considerable steps
forward can be announced. Also, Iacovou said that a joint
business event is being planned in advance of the TC
elections to further highlight "progress" in the talks.


4. (C) UN Special Representative Downer told the Codel that
the odds of an agreement this year are "50/50." He emphasized
that US and UK influence on events on Cyprus "should not be
exaggerated" and that what would be most helpful to him would
be for the US to continue to play a quiet supportive role
behind the scenes and to "keep Ankara's feet to the fire." He
strongly opposed the idea of a US Special Representative to
Cyprus, arguing that it would be a distraction to the
negotiators and potentially diminish his own influence.


5. (C) Comment: The consensus on both sides is that a
conclusion to the talks is possible this year, in advance of
the EU's report on Turkey's progress towards accession, but
that it will take considerable good will from the other side
and increased momentum/frequency of the talks to realize this
timetable. The fact that considerable pressure was applied in
Washington by Cyprus Ambassador Kakkouris and in Nicosia by
Vice Foreign Minister Emiliou for Durbin not to meet with
Talat does not bode well for such good will, although the
visit with Talat had no negative effect on Durbin's meetings
on the GC side. The Senator and Illinois State Treasurer,
Alexi Giannoulias, who accompanied the Codel, stressed that
the US understands that any solution must be reached by and
between Cypriots, but that the US stands ready to provide any
assistance requested. They also stressed the urgency of the
matter and strongly encouraged all sides to not let this
historic opportunity slip away. The fact that the delegation
has close personal ties with President Obama ensured that the
Codel's message was heard, even if virtually all Cypriots
continue to believe that the onus for progress continues to
rest with the other side.


6. (U) Codel Durbin did not have an opportunity to clear this
message before departing.

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