NIGER: OPPOSITION MEMBERS PAY CALL AT EMBASSY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NIAMEY 000935

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W AND AF/RSA; PLS PASS TO USAID FOR AFR/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI PREL ASEC NG
SUBJECT: NIGER: OPPOSITION MEMBERS PAY CALL AT EMBASSY

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Classified By: Ambassador Bernadette M. Allen, Reason: 1.4 (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: On November 20, opposition Nigerien Party
for Democracy and Socialism (PNDS) Vice President (VP) Bazoum
Mohamed and PNDS Deputy Secretary General (DSG) Assoumi
Massaoudou provided a read-out of the November 11-13 meetings
that Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS)-appointed mediator Abdoulsalami Abubakar held with
Opposition members and a Government of Niger (GON) delegation
in Abuja. The PNDS is the primary opposition party. PNDS
leaders stated willingness to negotiate with the GON,
provided basic civil liberties are restored in Niger and the
current constitution (Sixth Republic) is annulled. Bazoum
stated the Opposition would even consider agreeing to
President Tandja's staying in power for a brief transition
period to permit the scheduling and holding of elections, but
added the condition that President Tandja not contest for
re-election. End summary.

Diversity of Opposition Possibly Distraction
--------------

2. (SBU) On November 20, PNDS VP Bazoum and DSG Massaoudou
called on Ambassador Allen; the Deputy Chief of Mission and
Political Officer (note taker) also participated in the
meeting. The discussion covered the November 11-13 ECOWAS
meeting in Abuja, current developments in Niger and a way out
of the current political impasse.


3. (SBU) Bazoum voiced concern that the broad diversity of
opposition members may create confusion and give the
impression of an incoherent argument to contest the political
status quo. The Coordination of Forces for Democracy and the
Republic (CFDR),a coalition of political parties, civil
society organizations, and trade unions represented the
Opposition in Abuja. Bazoum noted that four principal
leaders representing the Opposition were present, including a
former Prime Minister (PM)/current Movement for the Defense
of Democracy of the Republic (MDDR) president Mahamane
Ousmane, Front for the Defense of Democracy (FDD) president
Mahamadou Issoufou, Front for the Restoration of Democracy
(FRD) president Elhadj Mahamane Hamissou, former PM/ruling
party National Movement for a Society of Development (MNSD)
president Hama Amadou, and Labor Confederation leader
Soumaila Bagna.

Opposition Outlines Genesis of Crisis; Negotiation
Pre-conditions
--------------

4. (SBU) Bazoum stated that on the first day of meetings in
Abuja, the Opposition submitted a communique containing the
genesis and status of the political crisis in 2009. He
stated that he was "pleased with the fact that their
delegation was able to stay on message and leave a good
impression at the Abuja meeting." He added the Opposition is
pleased with, respects and trusts the ECOWAS-designated
mediator for Niger, former Nigerian head of state General
Abdoulsalami Abubakar. He praised Abubakar for "having left
office in Nigeria gracefully."


5. (SBU) Bazoum laid out the conditions under which the
Opposition would negotiate with the GON. He stated the GON
must restore citizens' rights, including freedom of speech,
freedom of assembly and the right to obtain permits to hold
rallies or political demonstrations. He added that the GON
must stop its intimidation, such as detention of opposition
members, arrests of journalists, threats to close media
outlets and other menacing acts.


6. (SBU) Bazoum insisted that the GON must return to the
constitutional order of the Fifth Republic, annul the results
of the October 20 legislative elections and reinstate the
members of the dissolved Constitutional Court. Bazoum
contended that "Article 53 of the previous constitution was
interpreted erroneously." He reiterated that actions taken
by President Tandja under the Sixth Republic must not go
forward. He called for new legislative elections, but did
not insist that the former National Assembly (Fifth Republic)
be reinstated.

December 22 Fast Approaching
--------------

7. (C/NF) Bazoum suggested that the best way out of the
political quagmire is to establish a transitional government,
containing Opposition and GON members, to draft a new

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constitution to protect the rule of law and democracy. He
acknowledeged that it is already too late to hold
presidential elections in December; consequently, he said
many within the Opposition would accept President Tandja's
remaining in office up to six months during a transitional
period leading up to new elections. Bazoum argued that Niger
is used to transition periods, and cited as examples Nigerien
history during the years of 1992, 1997 and 1999. He opined,
"this would be a way for President Tandja to save face." He
suggested that President Tandja could sign a "judicial
ordinance" to remain as Chief of State and, concluded that
ECOWAS could ensure that President Tandja honored any
potential agreement.


8. (C/NF) Ambassador Allen pressed Bazoum for further details
regarding a possible "transition period" and whether
President Tandja would be allowed to contest in the proposed
Presidential election. Bazoum emphatically replied that it
would under no circumstances be acceptable for President
Tandja to contest in a future Presidential election. (Note:
Bazoum added that the idea of a transitional government with
President Tandja remaining in power an additional six months
had not been discussed with the ECOWAS-mediator because not
everyone in the opposition had agreed to such a possibility.
End note.) Bazoum said the Opposition members could live
with President Tandja's remaining in office up to six more
months, a shorter time period would be preferable. When
asked about the October 20 National Assembly results, Bazoum
responded that the Opposition does not recognize the
elections and want the results annulled.


9. (SBU) Bazoum noted the impasse on finding a venue for
possible future negotiations between the Opposition and the
GON. The GON insists that negotiations take place in Niger;
the Opposition wants negotiations held in Abuja, but is
willing to hold meetings in a neutral site, preferably in
neighboring West African state. Bazoum contended that the
GON would manipulate any negotiations held in Niger. He
added that the two international arrest warrants issued
against for PM Hama Amadou and former National Assembly
President Mahmane Ousmane had yet to be rescinded. He
stated, "If they (Amadou and Ousmane) returned to Niger, the
GON would be quick to arrest them." He said ECOWAS-Mediator
Abubakar had broached the idea of a ceremony in Niger to
launch negotiations with the plan to hold them outside of
Niger and responded that the Opposition may find that
acceptable.

Pressure from International Community Must Continue
-------------- --------------

10. (SBU) Bazoum stated that pressure from the international
community should continue. He stressed that President Tandja
must realize that the international community is serious, and
would not be manipulated. Bazoum called on the international
community at large to dissuade President Tanja from any
attempt to maintain power beyond December 22, his term in
office prior to the newly adopted constitution. "The
international community should not just look on," he added.
If the European Union and other donors discontinued aid, he
acknowledged that President Tandja would bank on alternative
financial donors (e.g., Libya, China, Venezuela and Iran),
but believed it would be a blow to see traditional partners
restrict assistance.

PM Manipulated; GON Lacks Respect for Peace Process
-------------- --------------

11. (C/NF) When the Ambassador asked Bazoum his views on
newly-appointed PM Ali Badjo Gamatie and his efforts to
negotiate with the Opposition, Bazoum responded that he
believes Gamatie is a kind individual. He said Gamatie
initially embarked on a "noble cause, but is now being
manipulated by President Tandja and is nothing more than a
mouthpiece for President Tandja." Bazoum stated Gamatie
wanted to use the National Commission for Political Dialogue
(CNDP) as a platform to negotiate with ECOWAS and to
demonstrate that Niger could solve its own problems. Bazoum,
however, rejected the proposal, stating that CNDP's mandate
is useful when there is cohesion between the GON and the
Opposition, which currently is not the case.


12. (SBU) Bazoum expressed disappointment in the delegation
that President Tandja sent to Abuja, calling it a clear
indication that President Tandja is not taking negotiations
seriously. He stated that President Tandja purposefully

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chose to send representatives to Abuja without a clear,
official mandate, knowing that they would have very little
room to negotiate, much less authority to make official
commitments. He added that President Tandja continues to
multiply obstacles for the opposition.


13. (C/NF) Comment: Bazoum's meeting provided insight on the
possible avenue to launch negotiations and areas to negotiate
agreement between the two sides, but there is no indication
of when negotiations would begin. Exploring possibilities,
such as a transitional government, would involve risks for
both sides; however, it does offer a potential way out of the
current political impasse. End comment.
ALLEN