WORKING LUNCH WITH FRENCH AMBASSADOR TO DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 000467


DEPT FOR AF BUREAU A/S CARSON FROM AMBASSADOR ALLEN
PARIS FOR AF WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SOCI NG
SUBJECT: WORKING LUNCH WITH FRENCH AMBASSADOR TO DISCUSS
THE NIGERIEN POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

REF: A. NIAMEY 466

B. NIAMEY 381

Classified By: Ambassador Bernadette M. Allen, Reason: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. On June 24, French Ambassador Alain
Holleville and I discussed the political environment in
Niger, notably the Government of Niger's (GON) posture after
the June 12, 2009 Constitutional Court ruling that President
Tandja's proposed constitutional referendum is not in
conformity with the Constitution. We concluded that Tandja's
signing the decree to permit the legislative election on
August 20, as proposed by the National Independent Election
Commission (CENI),may be the only official act to mark
Tandja's recognition that his proposed constitutional
referendum cannot go forward. Holleville noted that without
donor partner support for the August legislative election,
the GON could use the lack of funding as a pretext to
postpone the election. He also disclosed that "his capital"
asked him to pass a message indirectly to Tandja, as opposed
to the more visible U.S. demarche, to emphasize the
Government of France's (GOF) position that Tandja should
respect the Nigerien Constitution. He probed for information
on my May 27 demarche on Tandja (ref b). End summary.


2. (C) French Amb. Holleville phoned me on the morning of
June 24 to state he wished to speak with me about the
political environment in Niger. I invited him to the
official residence for a working lunch that same day. We
opened the discussion noting the GON silence since the
Court's June 12 ruling that Tandja's proposed referendum is
unconstitutional. We concluded that the long silence may
equate to Tandja's acquiescence that his constitutional
referendum is no longer viable. Highlighting the various
demarches from within the subregion and from outside the
continent, we deduced that Tandja may have finally come to
the realization that all avenues to move forward with his
constitutional referendum may be blocked. We agreed that the
longer the GON remained silent on the matter the better the
chance the announced, now advanced legislative elections
would go forward, especially since Tandja had signed the
decree to endorse CENI's proposed legislative election date.
We also believe that Tandja may have signed off on the
legislative election date because of his inability to conduct
some state business without the approval of a legislative
body. We did not rule out, however, that Tandja may continue
to maneuver in search of a loophole to go forward with his
referendum plan. We agreed that while GON Prime Minister had
stated on June 23 at the Ecowas Summit in Abuja that the GON
would respect the constitution, that we didn't expect that
Tandja would consider the referendum issue finished. (Note:
Later, on the evening of June 24, our suspicions were
confirmed when GON Spokesperson Ben Omar announced on state
television a request from Tandja that the Constitutional
Court review its June 12 decree, to be reported septel. End
note.)


3. (C) We both spoke of the current unease in the donor
partner community with regard to election support because of
the cloud of the referendum hovering over the election
timetable. Until such time as the referendum is completely
ruled out, the community remains concerned that some election
support might be diverted to conduct the referendum.
Holleville raised the concern that donor partner failure to
provide election support could be used as a pretext for the
GON to postpone elections. I opined that I suspect Tandja
can't make too bold a move until after the legislative
elections and added that donors may wish to disperse support
in three blocks, starting with the imminent legislative
election. That way, if a constitutional referendum somehow
materialized, we could wash our hands of that matter, and
only return with blocks of support, respectively, for the
subsequent local and Presidential elections. Holleville
stated he is scheduled to make a brief visit to Paris next
week and that he plans to inquire about how the GOF election
support plans. I replied that the USG is still working on
election support, as we want to see the legislative elections
launched.


4. (C) Holleville mentioned there were "echoes" about my
demarche on Tandja, after the population saw images of my
visit, without commentary, on state television (Tele-Sahel)
and in the state newspaper (Le Sahel). He said he heard that
the Foreign Minister and others were scolded for not having
warned Tandja about the reason for the demarche. I responded
that the Foreign Minister was not in country on the date of
my demarche, as she had been dispatched to Sirte, Libya, as
part of the GON advance team for the CENSAD Summit. I added
that perhaps the "echoes" came from Tandja's Chief of Staff
or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Secretary General, as I
had requested they leave the room to permit me to speak with
the President one-on-one. Holleville then stated he wanted
to reaffirm that the GOF is on the same page as the USG and
other donor partners, but it is using a different approach.
He informed me that his headquarters asked him to pass a
message to Tandja, but to deliver the message in a low-key
manner because the situation was a bit delicate for the GOF.
He said he passed the message from Paris to one of his
contacts who is close to Tandja, and that while he is hopeful
the message was conveyed, he has no way to confirm whether it
actually had been delivered. He commented that a recent
conference call between Paris and Washington on the Nigerien
political environment was a good thing, that he hopes it
continues. He also suggested he and I continue to meet
periodically to discuss the political situation in Niger, but
not too frequently, so that we can't be accused of plotting
against Tandja.

ALLEN