Ambassador Meets with Nigeria's ChargQ d'Affaires

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000439 DEPT FOR AF/W AND AF/RSA PLS PASS TO USAID FOR AFR/W ACCRA ALSO FOR USAID/WA PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SOCI NG SUBJECT: Ambassador Meets with Nigeria's ChargQ d'Affaires Ref: a) Niamey 406 b) Niamey 344 NIAMEY 00000439 001.2 OF 002 Classified by Ambassador Bernadette M. Allen, Reasons: 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: On June 9, Ambassador Allen and Political Officer (notetaker) met with Muhammad Sani Yunusa, Nigeria's ChargQ d'Affaires (CDA),to obtain his views on the ongoing political developments in Niger. (Note: The Government of Nigeria has had a CDA in Niger for the last 18 months; a new Ambassador is anticipated before the end of June. End note.) Ambassador asked him to share his views from a bilateral perspective and a regional perspective in light of Nigeria's chairmanship of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Mr. Yunusa responded that President Tandja is adamant in his ways, and unlikely to adhere to the advice of the international community. He also expressed his concern that political instability in Niger could cause massive migration of Nigeriens into Nigeria. End Summary. Government of Nigeria Will Issue Statement -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador Allen asked CDA Yunusa for the Government of Nigeria views on the ongoing political developments in Niger. He stated that the government of Nigeria has yet to take an official stance, but added, "we will have to take a stand soon, and something is in the works." Mr. Yunusa said that ECOWAS has called for an emergency summit in Abuja to discuss the political developments in Niger, date to be determined. He alluded that no official comment from the government of Nigeria will come until after the proposed summit. President Tandja Remains Defiant -------------- ¶3. (C) Mr. Yunusa mentioned that in meetings between President Tandja and ECOWAS representatives in Niamey on June 5, President Tandja was resolute in his "tazarche" (Note: Hausa language for "Let it continue." End note.) plan and professed that Niger is a sovereign country and other countries should not try to dictate what Niger should do. CDA Yunusa opined that President Tandja is circumventing the constitution and that he should adhere to the Constitutional Court's May 25 opinion. He found it incredulous that Tandja, who approached former Nigerian President Obasanjo about the need to respect democratic principles when Tandja was ECOWAS chairman, would now hold disdain for ECOWAS. Niger's Minister of Communication Acting Very "Undiplomatic" -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) According to Yunusa, in an interview with BBC on June 6, President Tandja's Minister of Communications, Mohammed Ben Omar, was furious with those opposed to President Tandja's plan for a third term. Stating, "to hell with everyone who says that Niger should not amend their constitution." In regards to ECOWAS' condemnation of the constitutional referendum, Minister Ben Omar responded, "Niger made ECOWAS, ECOWAS did not make Niger." He added, "we know how ECOWAS members conduct their elections; they can't preach democracy on us." Niger's Economy Could Suffer from Political Instability -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Yunusa expressed concern that the political instability in Niger could have harmful effects on the Nigerien economy. He believes that if civil unrest develops in Niger, there could be mass migration into Nigeria. This potential development would be problematic for the government of Nigeria. He suggested, "If I had the power, I would close the border between Niger and Nigeria for three weeks; he asked facetiously I wonder what the effect disrupted services, such as the lights not coming on for a few days, might have." (Comment: This is a reference to most of Niger's power being imported from Nigeria. He was making the point that Nigeria has levers to push that could make life difficult for Tandja. End comment.) He then softened his tone stating, "we hope the situation doesn't degrade to that level." Role of Traditional Chiefs in Politics -------------- ¶6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about the clash in Dosso (ref a) and the role of the traditional chiefs, Yunusa responded that traditional chiefs are "fathers of the nation" and should be neutral in politics. He expressed his dissatisfaction with the fact that the government has co-opted traditional chiefs. He believes that Tandja and his cohorts are willing to employ any means necessary to ensure that their plan stays on course. NIAMEY 00000439 002.2 OF 002 Economic Motivations, International Observers Lend Credibility -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Yunusa stated that President Tandja's motivation for staying in power was more economic than anything. He cited the recent Areva mining contract and Chinese oil deals that Niger recently secured. He believes that future profits from these natural resources have motivated President Tandja to stay in office. ¶8. (C) Ambassador asked Yunusa his thoughts on the GON's motives for responding that observers would be allowed to monitor results of the constitutional referendum; asked whether he thought it a ploy to lend legitimacy to the process. Yunusa replied that even though President Tandja has not objected to international observers, it didn't sound like an open invitation for observers to him, that the Foreign Minister delivered the message (ref b) to the diplomatic community more in the form of "come if you want, but we won't invite you." Yunusa believes that sending observers would lend credibility to President Tandja's plan and legitimacy to the constitutional referendum. He said, if invited, he did not expect Nigeria to participate. Mr. Yunusa added that the constitutional court already advised that the referendum is unconstitutional, thus the presence of international observers would give the referendum semblance of legality. He also concluded that international observers would most likely not be protected by the government, were civil unrest to unfold. He expressed concern over the European Union's continued support for President Tandja, noting that in recent weeks, the EU publicly gave substantial development assistance to the GON. He believes that these actions, although seemingly innocuous, ultimately help to support President Tandja. Yunusa ended the meeting by informing Ambassador Allen that he would keep her advised of developments on the ECOWAS special summit on Niger. ¶9. (U) Minimize considered.