President Tandja Dissolves National Assembly

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SUBJECT: President Tandja Dissolves National Assembly


1. (SBU) On May 26, President Tandja signed a decree to dissolve the
National Assembly. Although disturbing, the move is not entirely a
surprise. President Tandja has suffered a series of recent
setbacks. On May 18, an ECOWAS advisory body urged him to not seek
a new constitution, and warned the him about possible economic
sanctions if he continued with the referendum (septel). On May 23,
the Constitutional Court issued an unfavorable opinion against
President Tandja's proposal to have a constitutional referendum
(septel).

Tandja Strikes First, Facing Mounting Pressure
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2. (SBU) On May 25, the National Assembly set up a committee of 15
to analyze President Tandja's proposal to hold a constitutional
referendum to delete presidential term limits. Given President
Tandja's dissolution of the National Assembly, it is now not clear
what role, if any, this committee will play. President Tandja does
not have majority backing in the National Assembly; his party, the
MNSD (National Movement for a Society of Development),has only 48
deputies out of 113. Thus, it would have been difficult for him to
gain the necessary 4/5 vote of parliamentarians necessary for a
referendum bid to gain approval. Additionally, in light of the
ruling made by the Constitutional Court on May 23, if President
Tandja had continued to press for a referendum, the National
Assembly could have leveled a motion of censure.

What's His Next Move?
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3. (SBU) According to Article 48 of the Constitution, President
Tandja can dissolve the National Assembly after consultations with
the Prime Minister and the President of the National Assembly. It
is too early to know whether President Tandja did in fact seek the
advice of these two officials. Nevertheless, according to Article
48, elections for a new National Assembly must take place within
45-90 days of the dissolving of the parliament. If President Tandja
is to follow the Constitution, he will have to set up these new
elections in the near future.

Comment
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4. (SBU) President Tandja's decision to dissolve the National
Assembly is not entirely surprising. It comes as divisions widen
between "pro-Tazartche" and "anti-Tazartche" (Note: Hausa for "let
it continue." End note.) This move allows President Tandja to buy
time, and pursue a mechanism that allows him to stay in power. End
comment.


5. (U) Minimize considered.

Allen