BHARAT BALLOT 2009: MUSLIM VOTE DIVIDED IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000988 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 2009: MUSLIM VOTE DIVIDED IN WESTERN UTTAR PRADESH ¶1. (SBU) Summary: PolOff and PolFSN traveled to western UP to visit five parliamentary districts where Muslims make up a large minority, and in some cases, the majority, of voters. These five districts voted on May 13, the final phase of the election for the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament). Our Muslim interlocutors' primary concern seemed to be to ensure the defeat of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),reflecting long-lasting memories of the Hindutva-inspired demolition of the Babri Mosque. They were divided, however, as to which party -- Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP),or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) -- can beat the BJP. They were also divided as to what they were looking for in a party, beyond this capability. For those thinking primarily about local concerns, it came down to either the BSP or the SP. For those thinking about India as a whole, the pick was the Congress as the party that would bring stable government, economic prosperity, and respite from communal tensions. End Summary. Amroha: Caste Politics Trumps All -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In Amroha, a market town in northwest Uttar Pradesh renown for its mangoes, we met with a large group that included Muslim community leaders, businessmen, and local leaders for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The consensus among the group was that caste would trump concerns about development when it came time for people to vote. The participants blamed the parties for perpetuating caste as the basis of votes because that was the criteria the parties used to pick their respective candidates. They claimed that potential candidates are not asked about their previous political experience when they apply for their ticket, but rather what caste group they come from and what percentage of the electorate that group represents in the relevant parliamentary district. Not one of our Muslim interlocutors wanted Navendra Nagpal, the candidate of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the ally of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),to win. ¶3. (SBU) Later in the meeting there was a boisterous debate between supporters of the two regional parties, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BSP, as to the merits of each party's leader, rather than the qualifications of its candidates. SP supporters said that electricity rates had risen dramatically since Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati had taken office in 2007 and that it was hurting local businesses. They also noted rampant corruption in her administration and the lack of development during the two years of her rule. In contrast, our interlocutors pointed out that SP leader and former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav was friendlier to small businesses because he had refused to collect a central government-mandated value-added tax. SP supporters also alleged that Mayawati and the BSP really couldn't be considered secular because of past alliances with the BJP. BSP supporters responded that it was their civic duty to pay taxes. They defended Mayawati by noting her promise to build a 10,000 megawatt power plant - of which UP would only need 6,000 megawatts with the excess being sold to surrounding states. ¶4. (SBU) When asked about former BJP leader Kalyan Singh leaving the BJP and allying with the SP so that his son Rajveer would have a chance to run for Parliament under the SP banner, Muslim SP supporters saw it as a tactical move designed to entice one of the BJP's prominent leaders in UP away and weaken the BJP. They made it clear, however, that they did not forgive Kalyan Singh, who was the Chief Minister of UP during the destruction of the Babri Masjid (mosque) in 1992, for his part in its destruction. They justified their continued allegiance to the SP by pointing out that it was Raveer Singh and not Kalyan who had formally joined the party. It makes it a little more palatable for them that Kalyan is running as an independent, albeit with SP backing. NEW DELHI 00000988 002 OF 003 Rampur: Native Royalty versus Outsider Actress -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although officially there are 16 candidates running for the Rampur seat, the contest seems to be a two-way race between the Congress and SP candidates in this district where Muslim outnumber Hindus. The Congress Party is represented by the wife of the former head of the princely state of Rampur, Begum Noor Bano, who previously held the seat for two terms. The SP banner is being carried by the incumbent actress-turned-politician Jaya Prada, who had defeated Bano in 2004. A prominent local SP supporter told us that the Begum would win because the poor would vote for her. He had seen Prada investing a lot of money in advertising for her campaign, but she hasn't accomplished much for her district in the last five years. Our interlocutor said that four out of the five local state legislators, including one from the BJP, were supporting the Begum. According to him, resentment is building toward outsiders, noting that Prada is from the southern Indian of Andhra Pradesh and the BJP candidate is from Allahabad in eastern Uttar Pradesh, whereas the Begum is from a local, well-respected family. The Muslim constituency is also against the BSP candidate because he is from the same family as Kalyan Singh, the former BJP leader. The BJP candidate, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, is the vice president of the national party, but that does not seem to be helping him with the voters. ¶6. (SBU) When we visited the large gated compound of Begum Noor Bano later that evening, she was not as upbeat about her chances, claiming that the SP was throwing lots of money around to buy people's votes. She alleged that SP general s ecretary Amar Singh and BJP President Rajnath Singh were colluding across party lines to back Prada for the seat because they come from the same caste. Bano claimed the Congress Party had saved several lives in her district through its loan waiver program for farmers. She said that her primary concern was to make the lives of her constituents better by bringing in a steady supply of power, water, and infrastructure, but was noncommittal on how she planned to do so. Her son, who has a degree in urban planning and architecture from Columbia University, is a member of the BSP in UP's legislative assembly, but his mother hoped that some day he would return to the Congress Party fold. ¶7. (SBU) The spartan BJP campaign headquarters in Rampur was quiet with only a few days to go before voting day on May 13. The Indian Election Commission's limits on campaign funding, including campaign posters, made for a disappointing lack of color around the office. The signage was limited to several images of the party's lotus symbol and some Hindi script painted in orange and green on the white-washed walls of the small compound. The BJP secretary for the district, B. P. Singh, said they were using a grassroots approach to their campaign. One party member would have ten or so volunteers under him or her working to get out the vote in each of the district's 1339 voting stations. Singh noted that he had helped with his party's campaign after phases 1 and 2 of the voting in eastern UP and said that percentages of voters were down and that many people were apathetic. This helped the BSP's cause because the Dalits, formerly known as untouchables, were committed to helping their fellow Dalit, Chief Minister Mayawati. Moradabad, Nagina, and Bijnor: National versus Local Interests -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In Moradabad, PolOff and Pol FSN met with a small group of educated Muslim urbanites. The first group's primary concerns were communal harmony, government stability, opportunities for economic prosperity, and recognition for India on the world stage. They assessed that Congress would be the most likely to help meet these aspirations. The room was divided as to how qualified the Congress candidate, Mohammed Azharuddin, is. This is his first time running for NEW DELHI 00000988 003 OF 003 office, but he is well known throughout India and the district because of his successful career as a cricket player. Our interlocutors hoped that Azharuddin's fame would make Moradabad a VIP constituency and bring in much needed investment into the area. They had no problem with him being an outsider because all of the main parties are running candidates from outside Moradabad. ¶9. (SBU) PolOff and PolFSN later met with a large group of Moradabad's Muslim community leaders and businessmen. The group was split between Congress, the SP, and the BSP. On concerns whether a split vote would open the door to a BJP victory, they responded that they would confer with one another and unite their votes behind one party to block the BJP. ¶10. (SBU) In Chanpur, a part of the Bijnor parliamentary district, a group of Muslim community leaders emphasized the importance of peaceful communal relations and stable government, saying they placed India's national interests before their local interests. They saw Congress as the party most likely to meet those criteria. One of our interlocutors made it clear that they had yet to receive any benefit from the Congress Party for their support, but they still saw the party as the best choice. They were also concerned that the BSP and SP would take votes away from the Congress Party because they were more plugged into the local community and its concerns. ¶11. (SBU) In a gathering of local community leaders and Muslim intelligentsia in Dhampur, part of the Nagina district, many of our interlocutors, most of them former SP supporters, criticized the SP for allying with Kalyan Singh. Many were choosing to vote for the BSP instead because the high percentage of Dalits in the constituency made it likely that the BSP would win. ¶12. (SBU) Comment: The majority of our Muslim interlocutors, caught in Uttar Pradesh's caste-driven politics, are often compelled to base their vote on who they think will win based on the candidate's caste rather than who they judge to be the best candidate. It was encouraging, however, to see that some were looking beyond parochial concerns and thinking about what was best for India as a whole, no doubt judging what was good for the country was good for them. The unity that our Muslim interlocutors displayed against the BJP reflects how strong the memories of the destruction of the Babri Masjid remain in this community. BURLEIGH