BHARAT BALLOT 09: INDIA'S MARATHON ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000969 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: INDIA'S MARATHON ELECTION REACHES FINISH LINE REF: NEW DELHI 927 ¶1. (U) Summary: Indian voters cast the final ballots in the country's marathon elections on May 13. In this fifth and final phase, polling took place in 86 constituencies across seven states and two territories. Voting was relatively peaceful with the exception of small skirmishes in West Bengal. Preliminary turnout figures were varied from moderate in Himachal Pradesh to strong in Tamil Nadu and Punjab. Votes will be counted and results announced on May 16 for all 543 constituencies for which 714 million eligible voters have had a chance to cast their ballot to elect a new Lok Sabha (lower house) of parliament and a new government. End Summary. Fifth and Final Phase --- ¶2. (U) Voters in 86 constituencies spread across seven states and two territories headed to polls in the fifth and final round of polling. A total of 1,432 candidates, including 93 women, were fighting for 86 Lok Sabha seats. More than 107 million people are eligible to vote in the fifth round. In the five rounds of voting, the eligible electorate of 714 million has made its selection for 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. Votes will be counted and results announced on May 16. The Contested States --- ¶3. (U) The 86 parliamentary constituencies going to the polls in the fifth phase are located in the following states: -- Tamil Nadu (39/39 seats) -- Jammu and Kashmir (2/6 seats) -- Uttar Pradesh (14/80 seats) -- West Bengal (11/42 seats) -- Himachal Pradesh (4/4 seats) -- Punjab (9/13 seats) -- Uttarakhand (5/5 seats) -- Chandigarh (1/1 seat) -- Pondicherry (1/1 seat) Good Early Turnout --- ¶4. (U) There was moderate to heavy polling in 86 Lok Sabha constituencies. Local media reported the following as of 1500 hrs: Punjab 50%, Uttarakhand 46%, Tamil Nadu 46%, Himachal Pradesh 39%, West Bengal 45%, Uttar Pradesh 41%, Pondicherry 52%, Chandigarh 53% and Jammu and Kashmir 34%. The Election Commission will report preliminary turnout a few hours after polls close at 1700 hrs local time, and many expect voter turnout numbers to rise. Peaceful Polls --- ¶5. (U) The May 13 poll was peaceful, calm and orderly. There were reports of scattered violence in Kolkata that resulted in one reported death and 17 injuries. Security was heavy in Jammu and Kashmir, and there were no reports of violence. Big Name Contests --- ¶6. (U) Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram is seeking re-election from Tamil Nadu. Varun Gandhi, until recently the lesser known grandson of Indira Gandhi, is the BJP candidate from Uttar Pradesh. Some of the other prominent personalities contesting during last phase include: Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker Charnjit Singh Atwal from Punjab; Trinamool Congress President Mamata Banerjee from West NEW DELHI 00000969 002 OF 003 Bengal; BJP Vice President Mukthar Abbas Naqvi from Uttar Pradesh; Maneka Gandhi, Varun's mother, from Uttar Pradesh; cricketer-turned-BJP MP Navjot Sidhu from Amritsar; and actress-turned-Samajawadi Party MP Jaya Prada from Uttar Pradesh. ¶7. (U) The Election Commission had prohibited the media from airing exit polls until voting had been completed in all 543 constituencies over the five phases on grounds that such polls can be manipulated to influence voter behavior in subsequent rounds. As polls closed at 1700 hrs today, the media began to furiously air exit polls that compiled the results from all five phases. Embassy will report a survey of these polls tomorrow but cautions that the value of exit polls and opinion polls in India is extremely limited as they tend to be notoriously inaccurate. Eastern India - 11 Seats --- ¶8. (U) West Bengal: 11 seats were at stake in West Bengal in the fifth round of the polls. Governance and development are the primary elections issues in the state. In West Bengal, Trinamool and Congress together pose the most formidable threat to the Left Front's 32-year domination of state politics led by the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI-M). All eyes are on South Kolkata and the ten other seats spread across urban and semi-urban areas to see whether the Trinamool-Congress alliance can capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the Left Front over it acquisition of land for industry, or whether they will be held accountable for the departure of the high profile Tata small car factory from the state. ¶9. (SBU) Senior CPI-M MP told Poloff today that CPI-M would likely support a Congress-led government. However, Trinamool Chief Mamata Banerjee has explicitly ruled out her support for Congress if it entered an alliance with the Left to form a government. Southern India - 40 Seats --- ¶10. (U) Tamil Nadu: Polling brought out 54 million eligible voters to fill 39 Lok Sabha constituencies. The DMK-Congress alliance fielded candidates in all constituencies, as did the AIADMK in its "rainbow coalition" with smaller parties such as the PMK, MDMK, CPI and CPM. The BJP fielded candidates in only 26 seats. In the 2004 elections, the DMK-led alliance swept all 39 of the state's constituencies. There will likely be a reversal in this election; the consensus is that the AIADMK alliance will win a substantial majority of the state's seats. Turnout is estimated to be close to 70 percent statewide, but as low as 45 percent in Chennai. We passed several polling stations in the city around mid-day and found no long lines. Journalists and party workers expect turnout to be fairly low. We also witnessed several incidents of disappointed voters who turned up at polling stations only to find out that their names were not on voting lists. Northern India - 34 Seats --- ¶11. (U) Uttar Pradesh: Fourteen seats representing nearly 20 million voters went to the polls today. The most prominent name contesting was BJP candidate Varun Gandhi, son of the late Sanjay Gandhi. Gandhi caused a stir on the campaign trail several weeks ago for alleged anti-Muslim remarks. Muslims make up roughly 25 percent of the electorate in eleven of the fourteen constituencies. Over the last several years, this configuration would have favored the Samajwadi Party. But Mayawati's BSP has made inroads in the Muslim votebank. Additionally, Embassy contacts report increasing numbers of Muslim voters returning to their historical NEW DELHI 00000969 003 OF 003 political home, the Congress Party. ¶12. (U) Himachal Pradesh: The contest for Himachal Pradesh's four Lok Sabha seats representing 4.5 million voters is a straight fight between the Congress Party and the BJP. While the BSP and the CPM have fielded candidates, they are extremely marginal players. Currently the Congress holds three seats and the BJP one. Media report both parties are confident of winning one seat, while the other two remain up for grabs. ¶13. (U) Punjab: Nine districts in Punjab went to polls in the second and final phase of polling for 13 Lok Sabha seats. The election is largely a two-way contest between the incumbent SAD-BJP coalition and the Congress Party. Many believe that a growing anti-incumbency sentiment, together with the SAD-BJP's poor governance record, will provide a boost for Congress. Contacts from across the political spectrum agreed that former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh retained popular support among rural and urban voters, and would enhance the Congress Party's elections prospects in the state. The Congress Party is expected to pick up five to seven seats, where it currently holds only two of the state's thirteen Lok Sabha seats. ¶14. (U) Uttarakhand: With five parliamentary seats up for grabs, job creation and economic development are the primary election issues. The competition is primarily a binary race between the Congress and BJP. Voters will in large part be holding a referendum on the current BJP-led state government and what they think of its efforts, or lack thereof, to develop the state. The conventional wisdom of pundits in the state is that the BJP and Congress will hold on to two seats. The one seat that is most likely to change hands is Haridwar, but whether Mayawati and her candidate will be able to convince the Dalit and Muslim communities to vote en masse for the BSP remains to be seen. ¶15. (SBU) Jammu and Kashmir: Of the two districts going to the polls, the Ladakh contest is a mere formality because it is a Congress stronghold. The eagerly watched contest is in Baramulla in the valley where separatist leader Sajjad Lone has defied separatist calls for a boycott and entered the fray. He is competing against candidates of the valley's two mainstream parties -- the National Conference and the People's Democratic Party. Poloff contacts say that Sajjad Lone is attracting heavy support in his home base of Handwara and Kupwara. A Lone win could have far reaching implications within the separatist movement in Kashmir if it encourages more separatists to enter the political arena. The voting in the valley was free of violence. BURLEIGH