MAYAWATI DEPUTY FORESEES NO CHANGE IN INDIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000960 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL IN SUBJECT: MAYAWATI DEPUTY FORESEES NO CHANGE IN INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY SHOULD MAYAWATI BECOME PM Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter Burleigh for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Shashank Shekhar, Cabinet Secretary to Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mayawati, told Ambassador Burleigh on May 4 that he foresees no change in Indian foreign policy should Mayawati become Prime Minister. He further commented that what little the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati has said about foreign policy issues - particularly, not supporting the Indo-U.S. Civil Nuclear Initiative last summer - was just rhetoric, and driven by the fact that her local political rival, the Samajwadi Party (SP),had supported the deal. Shekhar said he did not think Mayawati would become Prime Minister after the current elections, but noted that 25-30 seats in the Lok Sabha would make a big difference in government formation. His mention of only 25-30 seats is instructive. Several months ago the BSP was hoping to win 40 plus seats. With 25-30 seats Mayawati would be a player in post-poll coalition negotiations, but not necessarily a kingmaker. End Summary. Trusted Bureaucratic Advisor -------------- ¶2. (U) During a two-day trip to Uttar Pradesh, Ambassador Burleigh met with Shashank Shekhar, the Cabinet Secretary to Chief Minister Mayawati. Shekhar is Mayawati's chief bureaucratic deputy and runs the machinery of the state government. Originally seconded from the Indian army several years ago, Shekhar has worked his way up the bureaucratic ladder. He held slightly lower level positions during Mayawati's three previous stints as Chief Minister. No Change in Foreign Policy Should Mayawati Become Prime Minister -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador Burleigh noted that Mayawati had not made many statements on foreign policy issues, save her opposition to the Civil Nuclear Initiative. During the debate over the Civil Nuclear Initiative in July 2008, Mayawati termed the deal "anti-Muslim" in a blatant effort to appeal to Muslim voters unhappy with U.S. policies in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Shekhar dismissed any anti-American statements Mayawati has made and told Burleigh there would be "no change" in Indian foreign policy if Mayawati came to power. Burleigh pressed Shekhar to elaborate but he wouldn't go any further. BSP's Diminished Electoral Hopes -------------- ¶4. (C) While Shekhar didn't mention a vote tally for the BSP, he told the Ambassador that 25-30 seats would make a difference in government formation. He then observed that both the national parties, the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),would do better in UP than initially suspected. He attributed this to the voters' realization that this was a "national" poll. Because of the increased support for the national parties, he did not think Mayawati would become Prime Minister. The Congress Party, Shekhar predicted, would double its current nine seats from UP while the SP would only win about half the 36 seats they won in the 2004 parliamentary polls. Infrastructure Plans -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Most of the conversation concerned Mayawati's development plans for UP. Shekhar described plans to build highways from Delhi to Varanasi and Delhi to Dehradun in Uttarakhand as well as a new airport between Delhi and Agra. He did not mention the numerous statues and parks that seem to constitute the bulk of Mayawati's building program. Mayawati Wouldn't Alter Indian Foreign Policy, NEW DELHI 00000960 002 OF 002 Though She's Unlikely to Get the Chance -------------- ¶6. (C) Comment: Shekhar is one of Mayawati's top three or four deputies, but he is not a pure political advisor. Still, his assertion of no change in Indian foreign policy should Mayawati become Prime Minister has real credibility and gives some reassurance. His sense of an uptick in support for the Congress Party and the BJP, and his electoral forecast of 25-30 seats for the BSP, largely track with the views of the Post's other UP contacts. However, Shekhar's explanation that the diminishment of the BSP's prospects is due to a feeling among the voters that this is a national election rings somewhat hollow. This may be the sentiment of the urban middle class, but that does not describe the vast majority of UP's rural poor. All elections are local elections. More likely, fatigue with regional parties that don't deliver - both the BSP and the SP - has set in among the broader electorate. Additionally, Mayawati's reach to communities beyond the Dalits is showing its limitations. End Comment. BURLEIGH