BHARAT BALLOT 09: INDIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

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SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: INDIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
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1. (U) Summary: The rolling Indian parliamentary election
moved north as Indian voters cast their ballots in the fourth
round of elections on May 7. In play were several key
battleground states for the Congress Party-led United
Progressive Alliance's attempt to stay in power. In this
fourth of five phases, polling took place in 85
constituencies across eight states. Voting in the fourth
phase was relatively uneventful with the exception of small
skirmishes in Bihar and West Bengal. Preliminary turnout
figures were mixed, varying between weak in Bihar to strong
in West Bengal, Punjab and Haryana. Votes will be counted
and results announced on May 16 when all five phases of
polling have been completed and 714 million voters have had a
chance to cast their ballot to elect a new Lok Sabha (lower
house) of parliament and a new government. End Summary.

Fourth of Five Phases
---


2. (U) Voters in 85 constituencies spread across eight
states headed to polls in the fourth round of the five-phased
election. A total of 1,315 candidates, including 119 women,
were fighting for 85 Lok Sabha seats. More than 94.6 million
people are eligible to vote in the fourth round. In the four
rounds of voting, an electorate of 593 million (out of a
total of 714 million) has made its selection for 457 (out of
543) seats in the lower house of parliament. The next and
last round of polls takes place on May 13. Votes will be
counted and results announced on May 16.

The Contested States
---


3. (U) The 85 parliamentary constituencies going to the
polls in the fourth phase are located in the following states:

-- Bihar (3/40 seats; polling for all 40 seats now completed)
-- Jammu & Kashmir (1/6 seats; polling for 4/6 seats
completed in phases 1-4)
-- Uttar Pradesh (18 /80 seats; polling for 66/80 seats
completed in phases 1-4)
-- West Bengal (17/42 seats; polling for 31/42 seats
completed in phases 1-4)
-- Haryana (10/10 seats)
-- Punjab (4/13 seas; polling will be completed in phase 5)
-- Delhi (7/7 seats)
-- Rajasthan (25/25 seats)

Voter Turnout Better Than in Previous Rounds
---


4. (U) Voting began briskly in election states, but slowed
as the mid-day heat kept voters home. The Election
Commission reported a preliminary turnout number of 57
percent. The turnout varied between high in West Bengal
(75%),Punjab (65%) and Haryana (63%),to low in Bihar (37%).
Overall, the turnout was better than in the first three
rounds.

Peaceful Polls
---


5. (U) The May 7 poll was relatively peaceful and orderly.
There were reports of stray incidents in the southwestern
area of West Bengal resulting in two injuries. In Jammu &
Kashmir, the GOI deployed paramilitary troops throughout
Srinagar and surrounding areas to thwart anti-election
protests prompted by a separatist boycott.

Big Name Contests
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6. (U) Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi is seeking

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re-election from the traditional Nehru-Gandhi constituency of
Amethi, Uttar Pradesh. BJP President Rajnath Singh is
contesting from Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, where he faces
stiff competition from Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party
candidates. Some of the other prominent personalities
contesting during phase four include: Foreign Minister
Pranab Mukherjee from West Bengal; Railway Minister Lalu
Prasad from Bihar; Mines Minister Sis Ram Ola from Rajasthan;
Samajwadi President Mulayam Singh Yadav from Uttar Pradesh;
National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah from Srinagar,
J&K; Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) Chief Ajit Singh from Uttar
Pradesh; and young parliamentarians Sachin Pilot (Congress,
Rajasthan),Manvendra Singh (BJP, Rajasthan); Sandeep Dixit
(Congress, Delhi); and Naveen Jindal (Congress, Haryana).


7. (U) The Election Commission has prohibited exit polls on
grounds that they can be manipulated and could influence
voter behavior in subsequent rounds. It is not possible,
therefore, to get a quick read on any trends or patterns in
how voters cast their ballots today. It will take a few days
before the buzz from internal party surveys and political
pundits' analysis begins to make the rounds on how the
parties fared in this round in the various states.

Eastern India - 20 Seats
---


8. (U) In eastern India, 20 seats were at stake in Bihar and
West Bengal in the fourth round of the polls. Bihar
completed its final phase of voting, while West Bengal has
one more phase to go. Governance and development are the
primary elections issues in both states. Whereas caste plays
a significant role in dictating electoral behavior in Bihar,
ethnicity is a significant factor in northern West Bengal
(where ethnic Gorkhas have campaigned for greater recognition
and statehood) and in the Maoist-influenced southwestern
areas.


9. (U) The discord within the United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) in Bihar has thrown the traditional electoral alliances
out the window. As a result, regional parties are expected
to improve on their 2004 performance in Bihar (Janata
Dal-United). In West Bengal, Trinamool and Congress together
pose the most formidable threat to the Left Front's 32-year
domination of state politics led by the Communist Party of
India-Marxist (CPI-M). All eyes are on Singur (Hooghly) and
Nandigram (Tamluk) constituencies to see whether the
Trinamool-Congress alliance can capitalize on voter
dissatisfaction with the Left Front over it acquisition of
land for industry, or whether they will be held accountable
for the departure of the high profile Tata small car factory
from the state.

Northern India - 65 Seats
---


10. (U) Uttar Pradesh: Eighteen seats representing over 25
million voters went to the polls in northwestern Uttar
Pradesh (UP). India's largest state, UP sends 80 members to
the Lok Sabha and will see voting in all five phases. The
main fight in UP remains between Yadav's SP and the Bahujan
Samaj Party of Chief Minister Mayawati, though embassy
contacts recently reported a perceived uptick in support for
the BJP and the Congress Party among the UP electorate.
Media reported peaceful polling with a relatively low 31
percent turnout through midday.


11. (U) Delhi: While Delhi boasts the second highest number
of candidates per seat - 23 on average for each of its seven
seats - the contests are generally straight Congress
Party-BJP fights. Embassy contacts report the Congress Party
looks strong in all constituencies and could win six, if not
seven of the seats. This comes just weeks after party
leaders dropped candidates Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar
due to sustained protests by the Sikh community over the two

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men's alleged role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots. Also
contesting from Delhi is Minister of Science and Technology
Kapil Sibal. The Congress Party is hoping to ride the
coattails of Chief Minister Shiela Dikshit's November 2008
assembly victory in which a high turnout of 59 percent from
Delhi's 11 million voters returned the veteran politician for
a third straight term.


12. (U) Haryana: An estimated twelve million voters cast
their votes for ten parliamentary seats. For the most part,
the election is a two-way competition between the Congress
and the Indian Lok Dal Party. Many expect Congress to
perform well in the state backed by the party's strong
economic and development record, but it is not likely to
match its 2004 performance when it picked up nine of the
state's ten seats. Identity politics is also expected to
play a prominent role in these elections, as parties vie to
project appropriate candidates to gain the support of
strategic ethnic/caste vote banks.


13. (U) Punjab: Four districts went to polls in the first of
two phases of polling for thirteen Lok Sabha seats. The
remaining nine seats will see polling on May 13. An
estimated 5.3 million voters turned out to cast their
ballots. The Bathinda constituency in Punjab's Malwa region
has emerged as a battleground between the state's two
political elite families. Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the wife of
Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal, is the Shiromani Akali
Dal (SAD) candidate. Harsimrat faces off with the Congress
candidate and former Chief Minister Captain Amrinder Singh's
son, Raninder Singh. The election is largely a two-way
contest between the incumbent SAD-BJP coalition and the
Congress Party. Many believe that a growing anti-incumbency
sentiment, together with the SAD-BJP's poor governance
record, will provide a boost for Congress. The Congress
Party is expected to pick up five to seven seats, where it
currently holds only two of the state's thirteen Lok Sabha
seats.


14. (U) Rajasthan: Voters in Rajasthan will elect 25 members
of parliament in a mostly head-to-head election between the
Congress Party and the BJP. The Congress Party in the state
is riding the momentum from the state assembly elections in
December 2008 when it ousted the BJP from power in the state,
but the BJP is fighting back hard. Both parties have
recruited their star campaigners -- Sonia Gandhi, Rahul
Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, L.K. Advani, Narendra Modi -- to
visit the state in the closing days of the campaign. As
things stood last week, the race was neck and neck with each
party favored in nine seats, two expected to go to
independents and five too close to call. As the Congress is
working from a low base in 2004 -- it won only four of the 25
seats -- it stands to pick up some seats in Rajasthan. Seats
swings in Rajasthan are doubly important because head-to-head
BJP-Congress contests mean that a win for a party is
accompanied by a corresponding loss for its main competitor.


15. (U) Jammu and Kashmir: Despite a boycott call by the All
Party Hurriyat Conference separatists, turn out at 24% was
better than the 18.5% registered in 2004. The polling was
peaceful amid a tight security presence. Farooq Abdullah,
former Chief Minister and father of current Chief Minister
Omar Abdullah is contesting the seat.
BURLEIGH