INDIAN FOREIGN SECRETARY URGES SPEEDY POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000913 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER NP IN SUBJECT: INDIAN FOREIGN SECRETARY URGES SPEEDY POLITICAL PROGRESS IN NEPAL; SEES INTERNAL SPLIT AMONG MAOISTS Classified By: CDA Peter Burleigh for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) In a May 6 meeting with Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon, Charge sought the GOI's views on recent events in Nepal and suggestions for ways the U.S. and India could coordinate on responding to the political crisis. Menon explained that Prime Minister Dahal had been backed into a corner, first by opposition from coalition partners to his move to sack Chief of Army Staff Katawal, then by leaders of the People's Liberation Army who had drawn their own line in the sand over asserting control over the military. Menon believed there was a power struggle taking place among the Maoists, which led Dahal to abandon the premiership rather than expose Maoist fault lines. He agreed with the Charge that Maoist hardliners were questioning whether the Dahal government had been able to change from the old ways of politics, causing a rift in the party. ¶2. (C) Maoist leaders Baburam Bhattarai and Dahal had each reached out to the GOI to ask for an envoy to come to Kathmandu and mediate the crisis, Menon stated, with the caveat that Katawal's dismissal was non-negotiable. The GOI declined the invitation, according to Menon, reasoning it had nothing to gain with such involvement, as after Katawal's departure the relevant issues were not for India to decide and India would only then be a target for criticism. "They wanted us to cobble together a peace process," Menon said, citing instances in recent years where India had played the honest broker role, but adding that India did not see the needed flexibility from the Maoists. ¶3. (C) In terms of the way forward, Menon said the GOI has chosen now to encourage political parties in Nepal to form a new government quickly, with a goal of getting the political process back on track as soon as possible. It is also encouraging the remaining parties to keep the door open to the Maoists to participate in the government. Menon said he worried that should a new government not form quickly and put the focus back on moving ahead with the political process, Nepal could slide back into the self-destructive political behaviors which have plagued it in the past. ¶4. (C) Menon said he did see a silver lining to these recent events: "If there's a good side to what happened, it's that we've broken the cycle of the Maoists moving one issue at a time toward a one-party system." Because the other parties stood up to the Maoists on the Chief of Army Staff issue, the Maoists were finally denied one of the items on their checklist toward consolidating power, Menon reasoned. Furthermore, as the resistance was internal, the Maoists would not be able to blame outside influences such as India and the U.S., like they had in the past. Menon said he was unsure of whether the Maoists would be able to play the role of an opposition party in a new government, but pointed out that the Maoists first will look to sort out their internal issues. He warned against underestimating Dahal's political skills and assuming the Maoists would remain splintered. ¶5. (C) Menon praised the "sensible" statement the U.S. had made in the UN Security Council on Nepal, agreeing that the emphasis now needed to be on keeping all parties involved in moving Nepal's democracy forward. He welcomed the Charge's suggestion that we continue to coordinate, particularly on what mid- and long-term goals the U.S. and India shared for Nepal. BURLEIGH