BHARAT BALLOT 09: ROUND THREE OF INDIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000864 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: ROUND THREE OF INDIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION REF: NEW DELHI 817 ¶1. (U) Summary: On April 30, Indian voters cast their ballots in several states seen as key to the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) bid to win power from the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. This is the third of five phases of parliamentary elections; polling took place in 107 constituencies across nine states and two federal territories. Voting in the third phase was relatively uneventful with the exception of small skirmishes in Bihar and West Bengal, and a separatist boycott in Jammu and Kashmir. Final voting turnout statistics were not available COB, but it appears that polling in the third phase began slowly due in part to unusually hot weather in many parts of the country. Votes will be counted and results announced on May 16, when all five phases of polling have been completed and 714 million voters have had a chance to cast their ballot to elect a new Lok Sabha (lower house) of parliament and a new government. End Summary. Third of Five Phases --- ¶2. (U) Voters in 107 constituencies spread across nine states and two union territories headed to polls in the third round of the five-phased election. A total of 1,567 candidates, including 101 women, were fighting for 107 Lok Sabha seats. Polling is also underway for the 32-member Sikkim state legislative assembly. More than 144 million people are eligible to vote in the third round. In the three rounds of voting, an electorate of 497 million (out of a total of 714 million) has made its selection for 372 (out of 543) seats in the lower house of parliament. The next round of polls takes place on May 7. After the completion of voting next month, votes will be counted and results announced on May 16. The Contested States --- ¶3. (U) The 107 parliamentary constituencies going to the polls in the first phase are located in the following states: -- Bihar (11/40 seats; polling in state will be completed in phase 4) -- Gujarat (26/26 seats) -- Jammu & Kashmir (1/6 seats) -- Karnataka (11/28 seats; polling for all 28 seats now completed) -- Madhya Pradesh (16/29 seats; polling for all 29 seats now completed) -- Maharashtra (10/48 seats; polling for all 48 seats now completed) -- Sikkim (1/1 seat, concurrent state assembly elections) -- Uttar Pradesh (15/80 seats; polling for 48/80 completed in phases 1-3) -- West Bengal (14/42 seats) -- Dadra & Nagar Haveli (1/1 seat) -- Daman & Du (1/1 seat) Moderate Early Turnout --- ¶4. (U) Voting began on a moderate note, due in part to hot weather throughout the country, and is expected to pick up by the end of day. According to local media, Bihar registered 10-12% voter turnout and Sikkim saw 15% voters in the initial hours. Maharashtra recorded 5-10%, Uttar Pradesh 16% and Madhya Pradesh 10% of polling in the first three hours. The Election Commission will report preliminary turnout a few hours after polls close at 1700 hrs local time. Peaceful Polls --- NEW DELHI 00000864 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (U) The April 30 poll was relatively peaceful and orderly in the Indian context. There were reports of scattered Maoist-linked disruptions to polling in Bihar that resulted in minor injury. Suspected Maoists exploded a landmine in West Bengal's Purulia district injuring one security personnel. Apart from this incident, polling was peaceful in nine districts in the north and Maoist violence-hit western parts of West Bengal. There was no reported violence in Jammu & Kashmir, as the GOI deployed paramilitary troops throughout Srinagar and surrounding areas to thwart anti-election protests prompted by a separatist boycott. Big Name Contests --- ¶6. (U) Congress President Sonia Gandhi is seeking re-election from the traditional Nehru-Gandhi constituency of Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh. BJP Prime Ministerial Candidate L.K. Advani is contesting from Gandhinagar, where he has won with comfortable margins in the last three elections. Some of the other prominent personalities contesting during phase three include: former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda; JD(U) Chief Sharad Yadav; Congress leader Milind Deora; sitting Congress MPs Priya Dutt and Jyotiraditya Scindia; and former Karnataka Chief Minister S. Bangarappa. ¶7. (U) The Election Commission has prohibited exit polls on grounds that they can be manipulated and could influence voter behavior in subsequent rounds. It is not possible, therefore, to get a quick read on any trends or patterns in how voters cast their ballots today. It will take a few days before the buzz from internal party surveys and political pundits' analysis begins to make the rounds on how the parties fared in this round in the various states. Eastern India - 26 Seats --- ¶8. (U) In eastern India, 26 seats were at stake in Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim in the third round of the polls on April 30. Voters in Sikkim also cast their ballots to elect a new state legislative assembly. After the third round, Bihar has one more phase to go, while West Bengal began its first of three phases. ¶9. (U) In West Bengal and Bihar, governance and development are the primary elections issues. Whereas caste plays a significant role in dictating electoral behavior in Bihar, ethnicity is a significant factor in northern West Bengal (where ethnic Gorkhas have campaigned for greater recognition and statehood) and in the Maoist-influenced southwestern areas. The discord within the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in Bihar has thrown the traditional electoral alliances out the window. As a result, regional parties are expected to improve on their 2004 performance in Bihar (Janata Dal-United). In West Bengal, Trinamul and Congress together pose the most formidable threat to the Left Front's 32-year domination of state politics led by the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI-M). Western India - 54 Seats --- ¶10. (U) In western India, an estimated 60 million voters cast their ballots for the final 10 seats in Maharasthra, 16 in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and all 26 seats in Gujarat. In Gujarat and MP, it is largely a straight fight between the Congress and BJP. The Congress performed better than expected in Gujarat in 2004 elections, winning 12 of 26 seats, and hopes to make gains this time around. Given the BJP's dominance in the state, however, Gujarat appears to be more the BJP's to lose. In MP, the Congress is likely to make gains after almost two decades of steady losses. In Maharashtra, six of ten seats fall in India's financial NEW DELHI 00000864 003.2 OF 003 capital, Mumbai, while the remaining four are in adjoining districts. The main national parties, Congress and BJP, are contesting seats with regional alliance partners, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena. Southern India - 11 Seats --- ¶11. (U) Eleven districts in Karnataka will go to polls today in the final phase of polling for 28 Lok Sabha seats. An estimated 15 million people turned out to cast their votes. For the most part, the election is a three-legged race between the BJP, Congress and Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) battling out to win the remaining 11 seats. Initial assessments in the days before the polls are that the BJP is expected to perform well in the state, possibly matching its 2004 performance when it picked up 18 of the state's 28 seats. Northern India - 16 Seats --- ¶12. (U) Fifteen seats representing over 22 million voters went to the polls in Uttar Pradesh (UP). India's largest state, UP sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. Sonia Gandhi's seat of Rae Barlei voted today and will no doubt return the Congress Party President to parliament. Sonia's daughter Priyanka campaigned extensively for her mother over the last several weeks in the largely rural constituency. But the main fight in UP remains between the Bahujan Samaj Party of Chief Minister Mayawati and its archrival, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. Mayawati was among the first voters of the day in the UP capital constituency Lucknow, where her BSP candidate, Akhilesh Das, faces a tough battle with the BJP candidate, Lalji Tandon for former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's seat. ¶13. (U) Voters went to polls for one of six seats in Jammu and Kashmir. There was nearly 15% turnout at 1 pm local time in the Anantnag district of Kashmir, and observers expect numbers to reach 20-25%. This is a substantial increase from 2004 elections, with 15% voter turnout. According to contacts, the election is a two-way contest between the People's Democratic Party and the ruling National Conference. Voting was generally peaceful throughout the south Kashmir constituency despite threats by Pakistan-based terrorist groups to disrupt elections and a separatist call for a boycott. Anantnag is the first of three Lok Sabha districts in Kashmir to go to polls, followed by elections in Srinagar on May 7 and Baramulla on May 13. BURLEIGH