BHARAT BALLOT 09: BULANDSHAHR TAKE TWO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000800

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: BULANDSHAHR TAKE TWO

REF: NEW DELHI 710


1. (U) Summary: This is the second in a series of cables on
Bulandshahr, a rural market-town of 175,000 two hours
southeast of Delhi in the state of Uttar Pradesh (reftel). A
series of one-day visits have given us an opportunity to
observe the election campaign from the ground up, and to
gauge the political climate of a rural constituency, where
the election will ultimately be decided. On this trip,
Poloffs held a roundtable of party activists and visited the
district party headquarters of the Samajwadi Party (SP).
Caste combinations dominated the roundtable discussions, as
they have dominated the campaign for this "reserved" (for a
low caste) parliamentary seat. "Issues" emerged only as an
afterthought. Voting will take place on May 7, the fourth
and penultimate round of polling in India's parliamentary
elections. End Summary.

Close to Delhi, but Far Away
--------------


2. (U) The panorama of bucolic Bulandshahr seems a far cry
from the urban hubbub of New Delhi. Bullock carts hauling
used tires and chicken cages replace Delhi's SUV's and
minivans. Open-engine, three-wheel auto-rickshaws with
rooftop passengers take the place of the city buses. The day
of this visit, a big-rig truck had barreled into the median
strip of the narrow (and only) road from Delhi, blocking all
traffic in one direction. Adding to the gridlock, a sizeable
crowd of local residents assembled alongside the truck to
gawk at the scene, bringing nearly all traffic to a
standstill.

Identity Politics Rules
--------------


3. (U) At a roundtable with party activists, caste
combinations and the sub-caste identity of the candidates
dominated the discussion. While the Bulandshahr seat is
reserved for so-called Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates, the
SC group comprises several distinct sub-communities. None of
the party activists mentioned "issues" or "policies" that
would influence voters. Forty minutes into the discussion,
R.P. Tyagi, a Congress Party district leader, tried to make
the case that rural voters would opt for the Congress Party
because of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a
United Progressive Alliance scheme of guaranteed work and pay
for rural workers. The other party activists waved him off;
Tyagi did not put up much of a defense.


4. (U) Poloff inquired whether international concerns such as
relations with the U.S., or Pakistan or terrorism in general
would play a role. The general consensus indicated that
international relations clearly did not influence voters.
Terrorism, however, will at least receive air time during the
campaign, particularly from the BJP. After repeating the BJP
mantra that the Congress Party was soft on terror, even BJP
district leader Pratap Chaudhary, agreed that it was not a
major concern among the local electorate. Bulandshahr has
not witnessed a terrorist incident nor is it of a size or
importance to be a likely target.

Muslim Vote Divided
--------------


5. (U) Muslims comprise roughly twenty percent of the
Bulandshahr constituency. Should they vote en block it would
be a powerful force. However, our interlocutors all agreed
that the Muslim vote would be divided among the Congress
Party, the SP and the Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
While the Congress Party represents the historic political
home of Muslims, the religious minority swung to the SP in UP

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particularly after the 1992 demolition of the Barbri Mosque.
But now that the SP has joined hands with Kalyan Singh, the
BJP Chief Minister of the state in 1992, many Muslims voters
may be looking for different options, most notably the BSP.
Our contacts did not foresee a "wave" towards one of the
three parties, and predicted that the split Muslim vote will
help the BJP candidate Ashok Pradhan.

A Meeting Behind a Motorcycle Repair Shop
--------------


6. (U) Poloffs met with the SP campaign manager for
Bulandshahr, Kiran Pal Singh, and the party district
president, Raghav Suman, at the party's local headquarters.
It took us several minutes to find the venue because there
were no flags or party emblems to identify the office. We
kept missing the "headquarters" because it was tucked away
behind an old makeshift motorcycle repair shop, and was, in
reality, more of an outdoor courtyard than a conventional
office. In the courtyard, a small congregation of SP party
workers and leaders sat around a single rusted desk drinking
tea and smoking cigarettes. Posters with pictures of the
party's leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, hung suspended from the
trees with a few streamers with the party's bicycle logo
attached. Little indicated that this was any kind of
election command center.


7. (U) Poloff asked why the SP would win the Bulandshahr
seat. Singh argued that a combination of Other Backward
Castes and Muslims would deliver the seat to the SP. But
when pressed why, he offered little regarding the SP's
policies, political ideology or even campaign strategy. He
generally confined his comments to trashing the SP's
archenemy, Mayawati's BSP, as corrupt and infested with
criminals. With a nod to a few Muslim workers he did add
that the SP was "secular." When pressed by Poloff, who
observed that the BSP too was secular, he stated that
Mayawati would align with the BJP after the elections.


8. (SBU) Changing topics, Poloff asked for the group's view
of SP General Secretary and money man Amar Singh. A
noticeably uncomfortable silence fell over the group,
followed by half smirks. "Well, he is our leader," one man
in the back finally replied, "but only because Mulayam Singh
Yadav has decided it best to make him so." The others
mumbled agreement and then further praised Mulayam.


9. (U) Comment: The second trip to Bulandshahr lent further
evidence to the currently held understanding of UP politics.
National issues will play almost no role, and local issues
will take a secondary role to identity politics. Caste
combinations seem to be the only game in town and are almost
a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more the political
leadership class obsess over caste, the more political
workers, and voters believe it to be the only concern. End
Comment.
BURLEIGH