BHARAT BALLOT 09: BULANDSHAHR TAKE TWO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000800 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: BULANDSHAHR TAKE TWO REF: NEW DELHI 710 ¶1. (U) Summary: This is the second in a series of cables on Bulandshahr, a rural market-town of 175,000 two hours southeast of Delhi in the state of Uttar Pradesh (reftel). A series of one-day visits have given us an opportunity to observe the election campaign from the ground up, and to gauge the political climate of a rural constituency, where the election will ultimately be decided. On this trip, Poloffs held a roundtable of party activists and visited the district party headquarters of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Caste combinations dominated the roundtable discussions, as they have dominated the campaign for this "reserved" (for a low caste) parliamentary seat. "Issues" emerged only as an afterthought. Voting will take place on May 7, the fourth and penultimate round of polling in India's parliamentary elections. End Summary. Close to Delhi, but Far Away -------------- ¶2. (U) The panorama of bucolic Bulandshahr seems a far cry from the urban hubbub of New Delhi. Bullock carts hauling used tires and chicken cages replace Delhi's SUV's and minivans. Open-engine, three-wheel auto-rickshaws with rooftop passengers take the place of the city buses. The day of this visit, a big-rig truck had barreled into the median strip of the narrow (and only) road from Delhi, blocking all traffic in one direction. Adding to the gridlock, a sizeable crowd of local residents assembled alongside the truck to gawk at the scene, bringing nearly all traffic to a standstill. Identity Politics Rules -------------- ¶3. (U) At a roundtable with party activists, caste combinations and the sub-caste identity of the candidates dominated the discussion. While the Bulandshahr seat is reserved for so-called Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates, the SC group comprises several distinct sub-communities. None of the party activists mentioned "issues" or "policies" that would influence voters. Forty minutes into the discussion, R.P. Tyagi, a Congress Party district leader, tried to make the case that rural voters would opt for the Congress Party because of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a United Progressive Alliance scheme of guaranteed work and pay for rural workers. The other party activists waved him off; Tyagi did not put up much of a defense. ¶4. (U) Poloff inquired whether international concerns such as relations with the U.S., or Pakistan or terrorism in general would play a role. The general consensus indicated that international relations clearly did not influence voters. Terrorism, however, will at least receive air time during the campaign, particularly from the BJP. After repeating the BJP mantra that the Congress Party was soft on terror, even BJP district leader Pratap Chaudhary, agreed that it was not a major concern among the local electorate. Bulandshahr has not witnessed a terrorist incident nor is it of a size or importance to be a likely target. Muslim Vote Divided -------------- ¶5. (U) Muslims comprise roughly twenty percent of the Bulandshahr constituency. Should they vote en block it would be a powerful force. However, our interlocutors all agreed that the Muslim vote would be divided among the Congress Party, the SP and the Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). While the Congress Party represents the historic political home of Muslims, the religious minority swung to the SP in UP NEW DELHI 00000800 002 OF 002 particularly after the 1992 demolition of the Barbri Mosque. But now that the SP has joined hands with Kalyan Singh, the BJP Chief Minister of the state in 1992, many Muslims voters may be looking for different options, most notably the BSP. Our contacts did not foresee a "wave" towards one of the three parties, and predicted that the split Muslim vote will help the BJP candidate Ashok Pradhan. A Meeting Behind a Motorcycle Repair Shop -------------- ¶6. (U) Poloffs met with the SP campaign manager for Bulandshahr, Kiran Pal Singh, and the party district president, Raghav Suman, at the party's local headquarters. It took us several minutes to find the venue because there were no flags or party emblems to identify the office. We kept missing the "headquarters" because it was tucked away behind an old makeshift motorcycle repair shop, and was, in reality, more of an outdoor courtyard than a conventional office. In the courtyard, a small congregation of SP party workers and leaders sat around a single rusted desk drinking tea and smoking cigarettes. Posters with pictures of the party's leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, hung suspended from the trees with a few streamers with the party's bicycle logo attached. Little indicated that this was any kind of election command center. ¶7. (U) Poloff asked why the SP would win the Bulandshahr seat. Singh argued that a combination of Other Backward Castes and Muslims would deliver the seat to the SP. But when pressed why, he offered little regarding the SP's policies, political ideology or even campaign strategy. He generally confined his comments to trashing the SP's archenemy, Mayawati's BSP, as corrupt and infested with criminals. With a nod to a few Muslim workers he did add that the SP was "secular." When pressed by Poloff, who observed that the BSP too was secular, he stated that Mayawati would align with the BJP after the elections. ¶8. (SBU) Changing topics, Poloff asked for the group's view of SP General Secretary and money man Amar Singh. A noticeably uncomfortable silence fell over the group, followed by half smirks. "Well, he is our leader," one man in the back finally replied, "but only because Mulayam Singh Yadav has decided it best to make him so." The others mumbled agreement and then further praised Mulayam. ¶9. (U) Comment: The second trip to Bulandshahr lent further evidence to the currently held understanding of UP politics. National issues will play almost no role, and local issues will take a secondary role to identity politics. Caste combinations seem to be the only game in town and are almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more the political leadership class obsess over caste, the more political workers, and voters believe it to be the only concern. End Comment. BURLEIGH