BHARAT BALLOT 2009: BJP PROMISES FREEBIES TO THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000755 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 2009: BJP PROMISES FREEBIES TO THE COMMON MAN REF: NEW DELHI: 593 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) struck a populist tone with the release of the party's manifesto ahead of the April-May parliamentary elections. The BJP lays out a range of programs offering something for nearly everyone. The manifesto has its focus, however, on lifting those left behind in the last five years of economic growth. In doing so the BJP appears to be determined to cater especially to the "aam admi" (common man) who, according to conventional wisdom, drove the party from power in 2004. The BJP manifesto offers its own plethora of concessions, such as: increased farm loans, food guarantees, and public healthcare/educational investment. To reassure its party base, the BJP manifesto includes reference to the Hindutva theme, but it is perfunctory. End Summary. Freebies All Around --- ¶2. (U) The BJP pinned its hopes to return to power on a raft of populist promises in its elections manifesto on April ¶3. In a bid to outdo the rival Congress Party, which has been loosening up the public purse strings for more than a year, the BJP took care to address the pocketbook concerns of major Indian voting blocks. It offered a host of initiatives targeting urban voters, who have begun to feel the pinch of the global economic slowdown. For them, it vowed to lower taxes, rationalize employee stock options, offer cheaper home loans and provide additional tax concessions for armed service employees. BJP's "Aam Admi" Appeal --- ¶3. (U) Going beyond these sops to the urban middle class, the major thrust of the manifesto is on the poor, especially in rural India. It calls for the expansion of programs targeting India's lower income classes, including: increased public health and education investment, expanded public housing and discounted food grain for those living below the poverty line. The BJP also announced it would implement a slew of measures to benefit rural farmers -- more farmer loan waivers, guaranteed farm income and crop insurance, and revised minimum wage laws to help landless agricultural laborers. ¶4. (SBU) UPA Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal ridiculed the BJP's proposed largesse, arguing promises of tax relief are the prerogative of the government, and that it is unethical and inappropriate for a political party to make such promises. Some journalists and many in the Congress Party accused the BJP of "lifting" from the Congress Party manifesto, which continues with the "aam admi" (common man) approach that worked in 2004 elections (Ref. A). One Indian daily described the BJP manifesto as "a game of one upping" with the Congress, with the BJP trying to match and then add just a bit more to the Congress's freebies. Watered down Hindutva --- ¶5. (SBU) The BJP's prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani, while releasing the manifesto, played to the party's hardline base. He pledged to "explore all possibilities" to facilitate the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya where Hindu activists had demolished the Babri Mosque in 1992. Advani, however, was careful to note that the construction of the temple would take place once the BJP had worked through all political "negotiations and judicial proceedings," in an apparent nod to the BJP's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies that do not share the BJP's Hindutva agenda. Political observers pointed out that the BJP featured the Ram temple in the party's 1999 election manifesto, but did little to move the issue forward when it was in power from 1999 to NEW DELHI 00000755 002 OF 002 ¶2004. They expect the same inaction on the issue if the BJP returns to power. Signature Issue: Tough on Terror --- ¶6. (U) Emphasizing national security as one its main election planks, the BJP pledged to enact a more stringent anti-terror law, along the lines of the now repealed Prevention of Terrorism Act. Advani declared that terrorists would be punished to the fullest extent of the law if the BJP was voted into office. Advani went on to criticize the UPA's "soft approach" to tackling terrorism, alleging that the country had become more vulnerable under PM Manmohan Singh's watch. "National security is the most worrisome issue before us today," he claimed. Comment: BJP Banks on Populist Giveaways --- ¶7. (SBU) The BJP strategy appears to be based on the much tested Indian political truism that populist schemes win votes. In the recent past, opposition parties have toppled incumbents in many assembly elections - Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu - with the help of populist pledges. In any event, there are few risks to such a strategy and little chance of a backlash in the near term. Conventional wisdom is that the BJP was voted out of office in 2004 after its "India Shining" campaign failed to resonate with rural poor. Not wanting to repeat the same mistake five years later, the party has focused its elections manifesto on winning over this section of the electorate - the slice that the Congress labeled the "aam admi" or common man. Whether or not it was the poor rural voter who tipped the balance in 2004, it is evident that BJP is going after this voter relentlessly in 2009. End Comment. BURLEIGH