BHARAT BALLOT 09: HIMACHAL POLITICS SPLIT THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000730 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: HIMACHAL POLITICS SPLIT THE APPLE BELT ¶1. (U) Summary. Himachal Pradesh accounts for only four seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, but given the neck-and-neck national race between the Congress Party and the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP),every seat counts. Himachal voters, on average more educated and prosperous than other Indians, cast their ballots according to local issues; development tops the agenda. Both Congress and the BJP claim credit for the infrastructure and social security improvements in Himachal, as Congress argues the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government funded all the prestigious development projects and BJP counters that the current BJP Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal lobbied the central government and secured the projects for the state. The party that successfully convinces the electorate it deserves credit will likely rule the ballot box. Both parties continue to woo the two main voting blocks of the apple lobby and government employees. Local politicians and journalists had predicted Congress and BJP would split the four seats. However, after Congress pulled an uninspiring candidate from one of the seats and replaced him with a former BJP rising star, there is a small glimmer of hope for a Congress sweep. The race in Himachal has "finally become interesting." End Summary. Himachal Pradesh - Apple of India's Eye -------------- ¶2. (U) Poloff and PolFSN traveled to the northern hill state of Himachal Pradesh March 31 to April 3 to assess the political climate ahead of May 13 parliamentary elections. With a population of only 6 million, Himachal Pradesh ranks as one of the smaller Indian states. However, the small Himalayan hill state has prospered, boasting the highest per capita incomes in India and the second highest literacy rate. The economy of the state depends upon hydroelectric power, tourism, and agriculture. The abundance of rivers in the state accounts for 25 percent of the total national potential for hydropower and Himachal sells hydropower to Delhi, Punjab, and Rajasthan. Agriculture contributes over 45 percent of the net state domestic product and over 93 percent of Himachal residents rely on farming for their livelihood. Apple farming is one of the largest revenue generators in Himachal and the apple lobby wields considerable power. ¶3. (U) Himachal Pradesh has a unicameral legislature with 68 seats. Like the rest of India, anti-incumbency has characterized Himachal politics as the governments alternate between the BJP and Congress parties. During the last state assembly elections in December 2007, BJP wrested power from its rival, winning a thumping 41-seat majority. Commentators give the current BJP Chief Minister, Prem Kumar Dhumal, positive marks for his accessibility and his moves to increase daily wages and pensions for government workers. Himachal has four Lok Sabha seats: Hamirpur, Mandi, Shimla, and Kangra. Congress won 3 seats in the last parliamentary elections in 2004. Himachal politics have little room for regional or caste-based parties. In 2007, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) attempted to establish a presence in Himachal, but a complete lack of grassroots support spoiled its strategy, leading many party candidates to jump ship and join the two national parties. Journalists estimate the BSP currently has four percent of the votes, mainly among the lower castes. "Low-tech" Himachal Enjoys a Personal Touch -------------- ¶4. (U) Himachal's polling date falls during the final phase of elections on May 13; consequently the campaigns are not yet in full swing. Journalists told Poloff Himachal is "not a high tech state," and campaigns with a personal touch enjoy NEW DELHI 00000730 002 OF 004 the most success. It is standard operating practice for party luminaries to make appearances at weddings and funerals to connect with voters. Hindustan Times' reporter Gaurav Bisht predicted that overall voter turnout will be lower than during local assembly elections, underscoring the importance of local issues to the electorate. However, Bisht observed higher literacy levels have led to greater awareness among women and young voters, especially in Kangra, where turnout is expected to be high. ¶5. (U) Indian Express stringer Ashwani Sharma predicts the BJP will use a strategy of bombarding the state with visits by high-level politicians who will fan out across the hills. BJP State President Jai Ram Thakur confirmed that party heavy-hitters L.K. Advani, Narendra Modi, and Sushma Swaraj will campaign in Himachal beginning May 6. He also detailed the party's three phase strategy: local level village meetings, door-to-door campaigning for 20 days, and large public meetings. Commentators agreed that BJP's organization in Himachal far outstrips Congress'. The journalists observed that infighting has plagued Congress in Himachal, preventing the party from "getting its act together." The state's Congress Party General Secretary Kuldeep Singh Rathore rebutted this charge, noting the party's campaign is quietly underway and thriving in Mandi and Kangra. National Issues are Non-Issues -------------- ¶6. (U) Commentators and politicians unanimously agreed Himachal voters cast their ballots based on local issues, especially development. As a small state, Himachal Pradesh depends on the central government funding of costly road and rail projects, which are priorities for agriculture and tourism sectors, the state's big revenue generators. Although funded by the UPA-led central government, voters largely credited BJP Chief Minister Dhumal for infrastructure improvements, praising his effective "personal touch" with New Delhi politicians. Dhumal also increased average government employee daily wages from USD 1.53 to USD 4.09, winning favor with this substantial pool of voters. As a largely homogenous state that has avoided terrorism and communal violence, these local concerns completely eclipse national issues. ¶7. (U) Both the BJP and Congress parties claim credit for Himachal's development success, while throwing barbs at the other party for failing to focus on the issue. BJP State President Jai Ram Thakur told Poloff the BJP's "tremendous efforts" resulted in safe drinking water in every Himachal village and increased road connectivity. BJP also touted the party's opening of the hydroelectricity sector to private enterprise, increasing competitiveness to meet the aim of an energy self reliant Himachal by 2020. The Congress Party, however, views this power sector initiative as a BJP fundraising vehicle to channel kickbacks for awarding contracts. Thakur relayed that BJP views government employees as the most important segment of the electorate, evident by the 36 percent pay hike the party pushed through during its first year in power. ¶8. (U) Congress State General Secretary Kuldeep Singh Rathore countered that the BJP cannot take credit for the achievements of the UPA government in Himachal. He claimed Congress should enjoy the credit for water and road improvements. Rathore argued that Congress initiatives, such as the 2005 National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and establishment of more educational institutions, are aimed at the state's two main voting blocks of apple growers and government employees. The battle over which party can claim credit boils down to how voters perceive the role of Chief NEW DELHI 00000730 003 OF 004 Minister Dhumal versus the UPA government in winning prestigious development projects for Himachal. Analysts commented that while the UPA government funded 95 percent of the improvements, Congress must educate the electorate on the funding process if it hopes to win them over. The Congress Party also hopes to make corruption a major campaign issue, pointing to alleged irregularities in certain procurement agreements during the BJP's tenure. Hamirpur - How Do You Like Them Apples, BJP? -------------- ¶9. (U) In Hamirpur, commentators -- and the Congress Party's General Secretary -- agreed the BJP candidate and son of the Chief Minister, Anurag Thakur, would likely trounce the Congress candidate, Madan Lal. Lal, a 58 year-old former cricketer, joined Congress in mid-March and his candidacy did not spark the positive electoral buzz the party had hoped. Instead, voters and media dismissed Lal as a Delhite who has done little for his native state. On April 1, Madan Lal admitted himself into the hospital complaining of high blood pressure and a backache. Reporters divulged that Lal's sudden illness was "a little too convenient." Two days later, Congress announced Lal's replacement with Narender Thakur, a move roundly supported by party workers. Thakur, son of very popular BJP stalwart and former Minister Jagdev Singh Thakur, switched from the BJP to Congress only six months ago. Analysts suggested that the Hamirpur race has "finally become interesting" as Thakur tries to make a dent in this BJP stronghold. Mandi - Cakewalk for Congress -------------- ¶10. (U) Congress leader and five-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh will face BJP three-time member of parliament Maheshwar Singh for the Mandi seat. Although Maheshwar has represented Mandi in the Lok Sabha in 1989, 1998, and 1999, commentators largely expect the race to be a "cakewalk" for Virbhadra, a highly popular politician. In a meeting with EmbOffs, the former maharaja and favorite of the apple lobby praised the UPA government's contributions to Himachal and blasted BJP propaganda claiming credit for the UPA's achievements. Virbhadra noted that the central government funds all the programs cited by BJP, from health to employment schemes. He added, "what has the BJP done in Himachal but indulge in favoritism?" When asked if Congress would repeat its 3-1 victory of 2004, he became defensive, remarking that he was not responsible for the statewide campaign. He conceded that his party would not win a clean sweep, indicating that Congress had given up on Hamirpur (Note. The meeting occurred before Congress replaced Lal with Thakur for the Hamirpur seat. End Note). Virbhadra expects the positive trend in Indo-U.S. relations will continue, as India looks to President Obama to restore peace and stability in the world with India as a "crucial partner" in this struggle. Shimla and Kangra - A Draw -------------- ¶11. (U) Analysts were divided in their predictions for Shimla and Kangra, the remaining two seats in Himachal. Shimla has been the Congress party's pocket borough for over five decades and reporters believe the party still maintains a slight advantage over BJP. Pratibha Chauhan of The Tribune asserted the BJP will fight for "the prestige seat," for otherwise Chief Minister Dhumal cannot "hold his head high" in the state capital. According to Chauhan, Himachal's "very sensible" electorate will remember that the BJP will rule the state for another 4 years in the local assembly, thus NEW DELHI 00000730 004 OF 004 bolstering BJP's chances in Shimla. Freelance journalist, Virendra Thukhral remarked Congress could receive a needed boost if Mandi's Virbhadra Singh, "the most popular Himachal politician," campaigned in Shimla. The Kangra seat is a wild card and commentators were evenly split in their predictions. Voters in this constituency tend to cast their ballots along caste lines and former Congress legislator from Dharamsala, Surinder Kakor, observed that the caste equation favors the Congress party. He predicts the large Other Backward Caste (OBC) population in Kangra will vote for the Congress and the BJP candidate, an upper class legislator, will face an adverse caste configuration. He also believes that dissent within the BJP will hurt the party in Kangra. Comment: Congress Could Sweep -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Most analysts predict a 2-2 split for Himachal with Congress taking Shimla and Mandi and BJP winning Hamirpur and Kangra. However, Congress' effective, albeit suspicious, move to replace Lal with Thakur could open the door for a victory in the BJP stronghold of Hamirpur, although it will be a challenge. The Kangra seat continues to stump analysts and with over four weeks left in the campaign, either party could break the tie. End Comment. BURLEIGH