BHARAT BALLOT 09: A VIEW FROM THE GROUND LEVEL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000710 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: A VIEW FROM THE GROUND LEVEL REF: BHARAT BALLOT 09 SERIES ¶1. (SBU) Summary: As part of Embassy New Delhi's coverage of the 2009 Indian general elections, we will provide a series of reports from a rural constituency in Uttar Pradesh to give some feel for how the election looks from the ground level. Bulandshahr, a market town of 175,000 located 40 miles from New Delhi, reflects many of the challenges that a modernizing India faces, as a largely agricultural country becomes increasingly urbanized and voters' expectations of improved governance collide with long-established ways of doing business. Politics in this constituency still largely revolve around calculations of caste and religion. But there are signs of a more demanding electorate as educational levels increase, communications with the neighboring Delhi metropolis quicken and voters expect more from the political class. As the campaign season progresses, we will describe what retail politics look like in at least one corner of India, what the voters see and hear before making their decisions, and what the politicians and their managers do to get their votes. End Summary. As Bulandshahr Goes, So Goes ? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Leaving the main Delhi-Lucknow road and the urban fringe of Delhi's National Capital Region, the massive apartment blocks under construction soon give way to fields of irrigated wheat and sugar cane. Bullock carts and overloaded trucks crowd the heavily rutted and pot-holed road. A new factory producing tiles for export on the outskirts of town is one obvious example of the economic changes overtaking the constituency. The chaotic center of Bulandshahr City looks a lot like many similar market and administrative towns that dot the Doab, the fertile alluvial tract between the Ganges and Yamuna rivers. Bulandshahr's history is not particularly distinguished -- it grabs a brief mention in the great Hindu epic the Mahabarata and was the scene of some fighting during the 1857 Rebellion against the British, but little of note has happened here in the intervening 150 years. ¶3. (SBU) In several important ways, the Bulandshahr constituency mirrors demographically both Uttar Pradesh and India as a whole. Like both, three quarters of the population of 2.3 million are considered rural. Hindus make up 79 percent of the population, Muslims are 20 percent. But there are differences that reflect the greater poverty in UP. Like the rest of the state, members of the so-called Scheduled Castes (21 percent) and Other Backward Castes (OBC)(56 percent) form a larger proportion of eligible voters. An overall literacy rate of 67 percent and female literacy of 52 percent are similar to other Uttar Pradesh constituencies, but are lower than India as a whole. Only 22 percent of children are fully immunized and 43 percent of the population has electricity at home. Average annual household income in 2007 clocked in at USD 2,000, about average for UP, but 20 percent lower than the rest of India. ¶4. (SBU) Bulandshahr is not a political bellwether in the sense that the results here forecast the final tallies in India as a whole or even UP. The country is far too diverse to find any one constituency that has that sort of predictive value. In the 2004 election, the constituency elected former BJP UP Chief Minister Kalyan Singh, who presided over the state during the 1992 Ayodhya Temple controversy. However, the redrawing of the constituency's boundaries as part of India's massive "delimitation" exercise last year and its designation as a reserved seat from which only Scheduled Caste members can compete as candidates have shaken up the political scene. Political parties have had to rejigger formerly successful polling formulas and field new candidates. Meet the "Incumbent" MP -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Four-term MP Ashok Pradhan, the BJP's 2009 candidate for the seat, stakes a claim as the incumbent, since he hails from a nearby pottery making town and has close ties to Bulandshahr City. In Parliament since 1996, Pradhan was confident that his daily outreach to constituents and his reputation as a successful local NEW DELHI 00000710 002 OF 003 businessman who comes from a very humble background will appeal to voters. He and his advisors argued to us that as a member of a lower caste with connections made while serving as Union Minister for Labor, Human Resources and Communications and IT during the NDA Coalition government in Delhi from 2001-04, he would be able to pull together a winning combination of upper caste Brahimins, members of the Bania trading community and Jat farmers to win this reserved seat. Caste of Mind -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Pradhan's focus on caste considerations reflects the way politics have been played in UP ever since the collapse of Congress' hegemony more than twenty-five years ago. When we spoke in late March to representatives from the BJP, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (a BJP ally),the Samajwadi Party, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP),each tried to pitch us on the likelihood that their likely candidate would be able to hit on a formula that would unite sufficient caste groups to win the election. Sarvesh Agrawal, a member of the Traders' Federation and representative of the BSP, headed by UP Chief Minister Mayawati, claimed that the party would be able to repeat its success in the 2007 UP Legislative Assembly elections by uniting Dalits (lower caste members),upper caste Brahmins and even Muslim voters. Irfan Khan, a Muslim who heads the Minorities Cell of the BSP, seconded Agrawal's claim that the BSP would rack up Muslim votes. Kiran Pal Singh, a lawyer who serves as the State General Secretary of the Samajwadi Party which bitterly opposes the BSP, disagreed sharply. He insisted that Muslim voters and OBCs would be the winning combination for his party and attacked CM Mayawati for doing little for the average voter while building monuments and parks to celebrate her accession to power as a Dalit Chief Minister. Congress Party nominee and former Union Petroleum Secretary Devi Dayal was the sole politician who did not make a caste argument; he claimed that secular and educated middle class voters would form his electoral base. (Comment: This well-connected former civil servant was one of the more thoughtful politicians we spoke to, but his personal political calculations seemed unrealistic, given the political considerations that have driven UP politics for many years.) All Politics Are Local -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Other than the Congress Party nominee, few of the political figures we met raised any national political issues. Hot button topics in Delhi like the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement or Pakistan-Afghanistan were ignored. The BJP candidate touched on the threat of terrorism and the need for a stronger national security policy in vague terms, but the overwhelming focus was on electricity and better roads and the law and order situation (either sharply deteriorating, according to opposition Samajwadi Party members, or better than ever, if you listen to the ruling BSP party). Even the economy, a touchstone in most Indian elections, was barely discussed, although several political managers noted that rising food prices were a voter complaint. Lackluster Electioneering So Far -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In the drive into town, we saw few signs that an election would take place in less than two months. While there were Bollywood posters advertising the next coming attraction and announcements everywhere for a popular Hindu guru who was making a limited appearance in Bulandshahr, we saw no political ads until we returned to the outskirts of Delhi. Some of this may be a function of the electoral calendar: the last date for filing nominations will be April 18 and the polling date for this constituency is May 7. ¶9. (SBU) At this point, most of the focus for our interlocutors was on organizing and motivating party cadres. All insisted that a successful get-out-the-vote effort depended on grass roots organization building, but most were critical of Election Commission restrictions on campaigning, arguing that it could depress turnout and reduce the enthusiasm of party workers. A local ban on NEW DELHI 00000710 003 OF 003 wall-writing and posters was the subject of much hand wringing. ¶10. (SBU) While party work was paramount at this stage, campaigning is beginning to take shape. Parties are handing out handbills to voters and organizing processions of sound trucks that fly party flags as they drive through neighborhoods and broadcast political appeals. Contacts predicted that door-to-door campaigning and nukkad (street corner) meetings would begin once candidates had been selected. Most thought that big party rallies, where voters are bussed in and often receive a meal or small gratuity for attending, were one of the most effective ways to reach voters. Few saw any benefit from more sophisticated voter outreach techniques - many thought the SMS messages parties have begun to send out to the growing number of voters with mobile phones were annoying. One party strategist noted that the local cable channel allowed political advertisements, but was skeptical about the benefits of electronic advertising. BURLEIGH