Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09NEWDELHI588
2009-03-27 08:19:00
SECRET
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
FOR LET, IT'S ALL IN THE TIMING
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S E C R E T NEW DELHI 000588
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK IN
SUBJECT: FOR LET, IT'S ALL IN THE TIMING
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Lesslie Viguerie for Reasons
1.4 (B, D)
S E C R E T NEW DELHI 000588
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK IN
SUBJECT: FOR LET, IT'S ALL IN THE TIMING
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Lesslie Viguerie for Reasons
1.4 (B, D)
1. (S) Summary: Recent terrorist activity in Jammu and
Kashmir (J&K) is in line with the annual increase in
infiltrations during the spring thaw. The upcoming national
elections may also be a factor in the increase. At least 17
militants and eight Indian soldiers were killed in a March 20
battle on the Line of Control. Lashkhar-e-Toiba (LeT)
claimed responsibility for the attempted infiltration and
announced plans to intensify its activities in Kashmir.
Senior intelligence officials have confided that they also
expect LeT to target political candidates and rallies during
the upcoming national election, but shared no specifics on
where or when. End Summary.
'Tis the Season
--------------
3. (U) Spring is coming to Kashmir, and with it the annual
increase in infiltration attempts and skirmishes along the
Line of Control. Melting snows and slightly warmer weather
have enabled LeT and other groups to resume operations that
historically decrease during the winter months. The five-day
skirmish that began March 20 has been billed as the biggest
infiltration attempt this year by Indian officials. (Kupwara,
at 10,273 feet, is currently still covered by snow and ice,
but has recently become traversable.) Army officials have
said they found this group of militants to be exceptionally
well-trained and outfitted. There had been at least three
smaller infiltration attempts earlier this month in other
areas. The Army Chief has been quoted as saying he believes
300 militants are waiting to infiltrate from 40-50 terror
camps across the Line of Control, now that the thaw has
started.
Perhaps Compounded by Upcoming Elections
--------------
2. (S) LeT may be even more intent on activity in Kashmir to
end the relative calm that has prevailed since the state
elections last November. The upcoming national elections,
which will run from April 16 to May 13, no doubt offer
another tempting target period to stir the pot. In a meeting
with FBI Director Mueller in early March, Intelligence Bureau
Director Rajiv Mathu, Home Minister Chidambaram, and National
Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan all said they had credible
intelligence to suggest LeT would attack politicians during
the upcoming elections. They did not specify whether they
had intelligence about specific events or candidates, but the
press has reported heightened security is planned for major
figures such as Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister.
Comment
--------------
4. (C) Indian security officials are compelled to highlight
the strength and sophistication of its nemesis, just as LeT
is compelled to make the point that it has not forgotten
Kashmir even while it is active elsewhere. LeT needs to
"deliver" to advance its recruitment and financing efforts.
The next few months will likely see an increase in incidents
on the Line of Control and in the Valley itself as some
infiltrators make it through. Indian security officials
believe they can absorb the sporadic and scattered
small-scale encounters with the terrorist in Kashmir. Their
big worry is that the LeT manages to pull off some
spectacular incident within Kashmir to reassert its relevance
in the state after several years of steadily improving
security situation.
WHITE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK IN
SUBJECT: FOR LET, IT'S ALL IN THE TIMING
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Lesslie Viguerie for Reasons
1.4 (B, D)
1. (S) Summary: Recent terrorist activity in Jammu and
Kashmir (J&K) is in line with the annual increase in
infiltrations during the spring thaw. The upcoming national
elections may also be a factor in the increase. At least 17
militants and eight Indian soldiers were killed in a March 20
battle on the Line of Control. Lashkhar-e-Toiba (LeT)
claimed responsibility for the attempted infiltration and
announced plans to intensify its activities in Kashmir.
Senior intelligence officials have confided that they also
expect LeT to target political candidates and rallies during
the upcoming national election, but shared no specifics on
where or when. End Summary.
'Tis the Season
--------------
3. (U) Spring is coming to Kashmir, and with it the annual
increase in infiltration attempts and skirmishes along the
Line of Control. Melting snows and slightly warmer weather
have enabled LeT and other groups to resume operations that
historically decrease during the winter months. The five-day
skirmish that began March 20 has been billed as the biggest
infiltration attempt this year by Indian officials. (Kupwara,
at 10,273 feet, is currently still covered by snow and ice,
but has recently become traversable.) Army officials have
said they found this group of militants to be exceptionally
well-trained and outfitted. There had been at least three
smaller infiltration attempts earlier this month in other
areas. The Army Chief has been quoted as saying he believes
300 militants are waiting to infiltrate from 40-50 terror
camps across the Line of Control, now that the thaw has
started.
Perhaps Compounded by Upcoming Elections
--------------
2. (S) LeT may be even more intent on activity in Kashmir to
end the relative calm that has prevailed since the state
elections last November. The upcoming national elections,
which will run from April 16 to May 13, no doubt offer
another tempting target period to stir the pot. In a meeting
with FBI Director Mueller in early March, Intelligence Bureau
Director Rajiv Mathu, Home Minister Chidambaram, and National
Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan all said they had credible
intelligence to suggest LeT would attack politicians during
the upcoming elections. They did not specify whether they
had intelligence about specific events or candidates, but the
press has reported heightened security is planned for major
figures such as Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister.
Comment
--------------
4. (C) Indian security officials are compelled to highlight
the strength and sophistication of its nemesis, just as LeT
is compelled to make the point that it has not forgotten
Kashmir even while it is active elsewhere. LeT needs to
"deliver" to advance its recruitment and financing efforts.
The next few months will likely see an increase in incidents
on the Line of Control and in the Valley itself as some
infiltrators make it through. Indian security officials
believe they can absorb the sporadic and scattered
small-scale encounters with the terrorist in Kashmir. Their
big worry is that the LeT manages to pull off some
spectacular incident within Kashmir to reassert its relevance
in the state after several years of steadily improving
security situation.
WHITE