BHARAT BALLOT 09: MAYAWATI HOPES TO DOMINATE UTTAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000484 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI PINR KISL IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: MAYAWATI HOPES TO DOMINATE UTTAR PRADESH ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Caste combinations and identity politics, rather than development or governance are the key drivers as Uttar Pradesh (UP) heads into parliamentary elections in April-May. National issues appear to play little or no role in voting decisions. This poor, largely rural state of 185 million holds the largest number of Lok Sabha seats (eighty) and will be crucial to any coalition hoping to govern after elections. Two regional parties, the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of current UP Chief Minister Mayawati, both look to win about thirty to thirty-five seats with an edge to the BSP. Neither of the two national parties, the Congress Party nor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),enjoy a solid position in UP. They will have to rely on alliances, most likely with the SP and BSP respectively, though none of the parties have formally aligned yet. Mayawati remains the most dominant politician in UP and is contesting - and spending - in every district. ¶2. (SBU) In Poloff's conversations with politicians, academics, journalists and religious leaders in a four day swing through the state in early March, contacts agreed the BSP operates the largest and most organized grass roots network in the state. Thus far no large issue has resonated in the voters' minds. This should augur well for the organized and disciplined BSP. Mayawati deeply wants to become Prime Minister, and with thirty plus seats, she will be a player at the center. With fifty seats (an outside possibility),the unpredictable Chief Minister could be a major player and could stand an even better chance of fulfilling her burning ambition. However, of her natural allies, the BJP is faltering in its national campaign while the Third Front remains fragile and seemingly unviable at this early stage. End Summary. Identity Politics Rules -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As parties jockey for advantage in the run-up to polls, each will chose candidates based entirely on the caste make-up of each constituency. In this regard, the BSP seems the furthest along. A BSP worker told Poloff candidates are selected based on intricate caste calculations, though BSP candidates still pay for the privilege. Dalits (about 20% of the electorate) will support the BSP and their Dalit heroine Mayawati, despite the fact that she has wasted huge sums of money on parks and statues instead of building much needed public infrastructure. Brahmins will support the BSP if the party runs a Brahmin candidate in their constituency. Muslims (also about 20% of the electorate) will support Muslim candidates, or if there isn't a Muslim candidate, whichever candidate will defeat their archenemy, the BJP. Tight contests with candidates from the same identity group will come down to personality, and money. ¶4. (U) When asked, "What do people think about PM Singh?" one journalist replied, "Not much, he hasn't turned off any groups, so that is good." National issues such as the overall economy - much less relations with the U.S. - do not factor into the lives or thinking of UP's predominately rural poor. Local issues such as water, roads and electricity matter, but even less so than the caste/religious background of the candidates. Mayawati Still Powerful -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Embassy contacts consistently reported that only Mayawati's BSP seems to have put a serious effort into the campaign thus far. Her main rival, the SP, remains locked in acrimonious seat-sharing talks with the Congress Party. According to journalists, the BSP operates the most extensive grass roots network in UP. Campaign funds will not be a problem. Mayawati basically "sells" the right to contest a NEW DELHI 00000484 002 OF 003 district for the party. Journalists estimated the minimum cost at roughly half a million dollars. If a higher bidder enters the market after a seat has been sold, Mayawati - in a high-minded act of "fairness" - requires the higher bidder to repay the original bidder, and then collects the higher bid. She thus sells the same seat twice, or more. Near unlimited funding for the grass roots network, combined with her cult of personality and complete control of the state government, make the BSP competitive for all eighty Lok Sabha seats. ¶6. (U) The BSP currently has seventeen Lok Sabha seats. Political observers generally agreed that total will rise to about thirty to thirty-five. Mayawati sees herself as a future Prime Minister, and even thirty seats will make her a player in post election coalition scenarios. However, it would likely take a minimum of forty-five to fifty seats for her to lay a genuine claim to the top spot. Mayawati aligned three times in the past with the BJP to form UP state governments, and it would likely be within a BJP-supported coalition that she could become Prime Minister. If the BJP surpasses the Congress Party to cobble together a coalition, the BSP would support the BJP-led coalition, but Mayawati would remain UP Chief Minister and wield veto-like influence from the UP capital, Lucknow. SP Benefits from Being in Opposition -------------- ¶7. (U) The SP, led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, relies predominantly on the Yadav and Muslim vote banks. The party, which played savior to the UPA during the July 2008 trust vote, currently holds thirty-three Lok Sabha seats and represents the toughest opposition to the BSP. Embassy contacts report the SP will likely remain at about thirty to thirty-five seats. Mulayam Singh Yadav resoundingly lost to Mayawati in the 2006 state elections due to corruption, government/police highhandedness and anti-incumbency. Now because Mayawati has focused her two year tenure on wasteful park and statue building - as well as centralizing corruption in her own hands - instead of development, the BSP will likely suffer somewhat from anti-incumbency. This should buoy the SP to some degree against Mayawati. ¶8. (U) Also helping in the struggle against the BSP will be a general feeling in the electorate that the UPA is coming back to power, according to embassy contacts in Lucknow. Despite Mayawati's courting of the Muslim community, the SP remains the traditional political home of Muslims in UP. An SP worker told Poloff that the BSP's three former alliances with the BJP will be oft-mentioned in the SP's campaign. The BSP-SP ground battle will be intense with each party doing, and spending, whatever they think necessary to win. Congress and BJP Vie for What's Left -------------- ¶9. (U) The Congress Party and the BJP, both once powerful parties in UP, have atrophied in the Hindi heartland. The BSP and SP will likely win about sixty to sixty-five seats, leaving fifteen to twenty for the two national parties. The SP partnered with the Congress Party to save the UPA over the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear, but the two remain stalled in seat sharing talks. Both parties need each other and are natural allies, but both refuse to budge. The Congress Party is demanding some twenty-five seats and the SP offering fifteen. Both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are Lok Sabha members from UP and will be campaigning is the state. Several contacts mentioned that campaigning by Priyanka Gandhi could invigorate the Congress Party workers, but just as many felt it was too late. Most embassy contacts put the Congress Party at ten seats. ¶10. (SBU) The BJP shares the Congress Party's minor status in UP. In the 1998 national election the BJP won fifty seats in NEW DELHI 00000484 003 OF 003 UP. Today it holds only eight. Political observers put the BJP about even, with eight to ten seats. Former BJP Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee will not contest from his Lucknow constituency. Without a rousing issue or inspiring leader, the BJP is in danger of total irrelevance in UP. Political Inertia Favors Mayawati, UPA -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Comment: So far, average voters in UP haven't focused intently on the national elections. Many of the parties have yet to announce all their candidates and party leaders are still negotiating alignments and seat sharing agreements. Mayawati runs the state like a fiefdom, but most voters take corruption in UP politics as a given. While these are national elections, Poloff detected no sense that the UP electorate wants to "send a message" to Chief Minister Mayawati. Likewise, there does not seem to be any overwhelming desire for change at the national level from UP voters. In UP, as in the rest of India, Prime Minister Singh commands respect for his honesty and competence. This political inertia would seem to bode well for the UPA and for Mayawati. With the likely increase in BSP Lok Sabha seats, Mayawati's national profile will be raised considerably, but probably not high enough - despite her singular desire - to become Prime Minister. End Comment. WHITE