BHARAT BALLOT 09: BJP SWINGS INTO ELECTION MODE,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000298 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: BJP SWINGS INTO ELECTION MODE, CHANNELS AYODHYA REF: NEW DELHI 00109 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani kicked off the party's 2009 national elections campaign unveiling the slogan, "If BJP wins, India wins." Advani heralded the BJP's terror-fighting and governance record, while attacking the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government for failing to address the country's looming security, welfare and development challenges. He attempted to play to the party base, pledging continued support for a hardliner agenda while, at the same time, appealing to moderate voters by touting secular development and governance issues. Advani also projected the BJP as the party of the future, drawing attention to next generation leaders Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and party General Secretary Arun Jaitley. The BJP is clearly gearing up for a hard fight, but it has yet to hit on a winning message. Factionalism and petty infighting within the BJP has distracted the party from refining strategy and honing its message for April-May general elections. END SUMMARY. Tough on Terror --- ¶2. (U) The BJP has sounded the bugle for the 2009 elections campaign over the last several weeks. Touting the party's security credentials while attacking the UPA during a three-day party conference in Nagpur, Maharashtra, the party's prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani criticized the UPA's "soft approach" to tackling terrorism alleging that the country had become more vulnerable under PM Manmohan Singh's watch. Referring to the Mumbai attacks, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi noted that they could not have been carried out without "local help" from inside India. He accused the government of ignoring the "Indian connection" in an effort to appease its Muslim vote bank. Modi reminded party leaders that the former BJP-led government had implemented stricter anti-terror laws, such as the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA),which the UPA reversed in 2004 as one of its first acts in government. ¶3. (U) A political resolution was adopted on the final day of the conclave, which threatened to end ties with Pakistan -- trade, transport, tourism and cultural -- if the GoP failed to deport to India all terror suspects involved in Mumbai and other attacks. The resolution called the UPA a "coalition of opportunism" that had "no moral right" to seek re-election. The Third Front was dismissed as the "product of politics, manipulation and opportunism," noting media speculation of warming ties between the Left-dominated Third Front and the Congress-led UPA ahead of national polls. Hindutva Makes a Comeback --- ¶4. (SBU) Speaking one day after Sonia Gandhi blasted the BJP for divisive politics along "religious lines," Advani played to the party's hardliner base calling for the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, where Hindu chauvinists had demolished the Babri Mosque in 1992. According to press, the top brass of the BJP-allied Rashtriya Swayam Sevak (RSS) had made it abundantly clear the BJP must not sacrifice core ideological issues during the election campaign or face losing RSS cadre support. ¶5. (SBU) Advani, who had been evading the issue, asserted that India would prosper "only when the Ram mandir (temple) is built in Ayodhya." He added there should be "no doubt on the issue" as the Ram temple has been considered a part of India's cultural history. Advani was careful to note that the construction of the temple would take place once the BJP was in the majority in the Lok Sabha -- a distant prospect -- in an apparent nod to the BJP's NDA allies that do not support the issue. Few believe that the Hindutva agenda will NEW DELHI 00000298 002 OF 002 be featured in the party's election campaign. As a telling sign, the political resolution moved by BJP General Secretary Arun Jaitely at the conclusion of the conference made no mention of the Ram temple, despite rising rhetoric by Advani and RSS backers. "If the BJP wins, India wins" --- ¶6. (U) In the run-up to general elections, Advani unveiled a new party slogan, "If the BJP wins, India wins," noting that a BJP-led government would address the country's looming security, welfare and development challenges. He said the UPA had failed in its development promises pointing to delays in rural job creation and neglected road projects nation-wide. The 81-year-old Advani went on to project the BJP as the party of the future, drawing attention to next generation leaders, including: Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Venkaiah Naidu and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Countering media buzz surrounding the Congress "youth wave," Advani highlighted that BJP leaders have risen among the party cadre, while Congress up-and-comers such as Rahul Gandhi and Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah owe their political careers to family connections. Comment: Hindutva, the Latest Buzz Word --- ¶7. (SBU) The BJP has struggled to identify issues that could give the party a leg up in upcoming elections. Party leaders had hoped to gain momentum from the three-day conference on the core ideological issue of building the Ram temple in Ayodhya. However, as many observers have pointed out, the Hindutva agenda has failed to garner support among moderate NDA allies and even within the party itself. The resurfacing of the Ram issue last week continues to suggest petty infighting and factionalism within the BJP (Ref. A). The BJP would lose credibility if it ran on the Ram issue, since the former BJP-led central government did nothing to advance temple construction in Ayodhya. The RSS and other elements within the Sangh Parivar, however, will continue to press party leadership to adopt Hindutva themes in the election campaign. END COMMENT. MULFORD