BHARAT BALLOT 09: A THAW IN CONGRESS-COMMUNIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000282

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: A THAW IN CONGRESS-COMMUNIST
RELATIONS

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Communist supremo Prakash Karat signaled
that the Left parties could, under certain conditions, return
to a coalition that includes the Congress Party. The
Congress Party was quick to pick up the olive branch, saying
it is ready to join hands with the Left parties to keep the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of power. It will take some
time for the two sides to get past the bad blood over the
U.S.-India civil nuclear deal, but both are reacting to
political realities. They realize the need to keep
post-election options open. The Communists, whose efforts to
forge a Third Front are faltering, fear political irrelevance
if BJP forms the next government. For the Congress, the
Communists offer an important bloc of seats that will make up
for the losses that Congress allies are expected to suffer in
Bihar and Tamil Nadu. Given the fierce ideological
opposition of Karat and the Indian Communist parties to
enhanced U.S.-India relations, any government that excludes
the Communists is as a rule better for U.S. interests than a
government in which the Communists wield influence. End
Summary.

Karat Opens Door to Congress Alliance ...
--------------


2. (U) In a television interview on February 8, Communist
Party India - Marxists (CPM) general secretary Prakash Karat
opened the door on returning to an alliance with the Congress
Party following the April-May parliamentary elections. Karat
told prominent TV interviewer Karan Thapar that he "would not
rule out supporting a secular government of which the
Congress Party may be a part" in order to prevent the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from regaining power in Delhi.
Karat is the powerful head of the CPM, the largest of the
four Communist parties that form the Left front. He was
responsible for the most serious political crisis faced by
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition when he
spearheaded the unsuccessful charge against the US-India
civil nuclear deal and acrimoniously led the Left parties out
of the UPA in July 2008.

.... But Not to a Congress-led Alliance
--------------


3. (SBU) Karat added a proviso that "at no cost" would the
communist parties support a Congress-led government (as
opposed to one in which the Congress is a only a member). In
the event of a Congress-led coalition, he said, "then we will
sit in the opposition." Karat made no distinction between
Congress-led governments with or without Manmohan Singh,
noting that he did not feel betrayed by the Prime Minister
who had always made clear that he intended to move the
US-India civil nuclear deal through.

Karat: Top Priority is Third Front
--------------


4. (U) Karat said that the top priority of the left parties
would be to ensure that the next government is a
non-Congress, non-BJP formation. In this context, he
highlighted the alliances and understandings that the left
parties have forged with Chandrababu Naidu's Telegu Desam
Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh, Jayalalithaa's All India
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIDMK) in Tamil Nadu and
Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. Karat
expressed confidence that other parties will join this "third
front" configuration and block the Congress and BJP from
power.

Congress Picks up Karat Overture

NEW DELHI 00000282 002 OF 002


--------------


5. (U) The Congress Party was quick to pick up Karat's olive
branch. Spokesman Abhishek Singhvi said that the Congress
was ready to join hands with the Left parties and that it was
incumbent on the left parties to keep "communal forces"
(i.e., BJP) out of power. He underscored, however, that the
terms of rapprochement could not be "dictated beforehand."
In his view, it was the Left that had walked out of the UPA
so the onus was on the Left to return and not the Congress to
pursue. Singhvi also took issue with Karat's hope of a
secular third front government, dismissing as unviable any
such left-of-center formation without the Congress Party at
its head.

Comment: Natural Allies
--------------


6. (C) Despite his qualifiers and conditions about
Congress-led coalitions, Prakash Karat's opening to the
Congress Party is not insignificant. Given the bad blood and
harsh words under which Karat and the Left parties stormed
out of the UPA only a few months ago, it was difficult to
imagine they would start talking so soon. They have not yet
buried the past and the bitterness will linger, but both
sides are beginning to react to harsh political reality.


7. (C) For the Communists, the political environment is
particularly challenging as they are bracing for heavy losses
in their traditional strongholds in West Bengal and Kerala.
Their numbers in parliament are expected to decline sharply
from 59 they hold today and that allowed them to play an
influential role in the UPA until their exit last July.
Their effort to stitch together a third front alternative has
made little head way. The TDP and ADMK are allies who could
easily desert the communists -- and probably will -- if the
BJP appeared to have the numbers to form a coalition.
Mayawati of the BSP is congenitally unreliable and will go
wherever she gets the best deal. In such circumstances,
foreclosing a post-election alliance with the Congress Party
could ensure the Left parties are condemned to irrelevance,
as they were in 1999-2004 when the BJP led the coalition
government in Delhi.


8. (C) For the Congress Party, the Communists, even with
their reduced numbers, can make up for the heavy losses that
key UPA allies -- Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar and Karunanidhi
in Tamil Nadu -- are expected to suffer. The Congress will
also hope that the Communists can bring others, such as the
TDP and AIDMK along with them. In the end, the name of the
game after the elections will be forging coalitions, and both
the Congress Party and the Communists realize they must keep
alliance options open instead of ruling them out. Given the
fierce and destructive ideological opposition of Karat and
Indian communist parties to enhanced U.S.-India relations,
any government that excludes the Commmunists is better for
U.S. interests than a government in which the Commmunists
wield influence.
MULFORD