VALIDATION STUDY OF NEW DELHI'S M1 APPLICANTS

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 002408 SIPDIS CA/FPP FOR JILL NYSTROM, PLEASE PASS TO DHS DS/CR/CFI FOR NICK SABRUNO DS/CR/VPAU FOR TIM LONGACRE AND YVETTE COLMAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KFRD CVIS CMGT ASEC EAIR ELAB SCUL IN SUBJECT: VALIDATION STUDY OF NEW DELHI'S M1 APPLICANTS REF: 08 CHENNAI 227 ¶1. SUMMARY: New Delhi's Fraud Prevention Unit recently completed a validation study of M1 visas issued to applicants during the first half of FY08. Historically, post has viewed M1 applicants as poor visa risks, and the refusal rates for M1 visas have been higher than those for most other non-immigrant visa (NIV) classes. The study showed a very low overstay rate of 0.4 percent, validating current adjudicators' approach to these cases. The study also shows that recent years' rapid rise in the numbers of M1 applicants described in reftel has been reversed. END SUMMARY. ¶2. Post reviewed all 506 M1 visas issued from 1 October 2007 through 31 March 2008, over 90 percent of which went to flight academies. During that period, the overall refusal rate for the visa class was 44 percent for 887 total applications, compared to a 28 percent overall NIV refusal rate for the same period, and a 32 percent refusal rate for 1938 total F1 applications. Of the 506 M1 issuances, we found only two applicants who appear to be clearly out of status -- a 0.4 percent overstay rate. Of the other 24 who appear to still be in the United States, 15 are still in M1 status (though several have transferred to a different school since arriving),four appear to have received legal permanent residence, and four adjusted status to another visa class (three to F1, one to H1B). These results strongly support current adjudication practices at post. ¶3. During the second half of FY08 (the period just after our validation study),the overall M1 refusal rate was 36 percent (for 581 total M1 applications) versus a 29 percent overall NIV refusal rate and 23 percent for 5263 F1 applications. For all of FY2009, the M1 refusal rate was again 37 percent (for just 554 total applications),versus 37 percent overall and 42 percent for 7874 F1 applications. ¶4. COMMENT: Though Post's M1 refusal rates have declined markedly since the period of our study, the numbers of M1 applicants have declined at a much faster rate -- reversing the trend of steep rises seen across Mission India and described in reftel. This decline is likely tied to the global economic downturn in general and the domestic Indian airline industry specifically, which is said to be in trouble. Anecdotal reports from M1 applicants indicate there are many fewer piloting opportunities than in recent years. The good news is that for a visa class with a refusal rate higher than that of most other categories, an overstay rate of less than 1 percent shows that Post's approach to M1 visas is sound. END COMMENT. ROEMER