FRESH MOMENTUM: CANADIAN PM HARPER VISITS INDIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002401 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL CA IN SUBJECT: FRESH MOMENTUM: CANADIAN PM HARPER VISITS INDIA ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Canadian PM Stephen Harper's November 15-18 visit to India was long on atmospherics but short on solid deliverables. In addition to official meetings with PM Singh, EAM Krishna and Sonia Gandhi, Harper had a highly visible public program in Mumbai and touched base with the Sikh community in Amritsar. The visit produced an agreement to establish a study group on possibilities for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, an MOU on energy issues, and a positive and optimistic Joint Statement. END SUMMARY. The Lighter Side of Harper's Visit: Culture and Business -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Harper's schedule built on strong people-to-people ties between India and Canada and highlighted the potential for increased trade between the two countries. There have been 11 ministerial visits to India since 2006. The Canadian PM traveled from the APEC conference in Singapore directly to Mumbai, where he held four roundtables with Indian investors to discuss investment, infrastructure, education, and the civil nuclear sector. Harper delivered a speech at Mumbai's Trident Hotel to approximately 240 guests, most of whom were Indian. Harper also found time in Mumbai to present Bollywood star Akshay Kumar with a symbolic Olympic torch (Kumar will be a torchbearer at the 2010 winter Olympics in Vancouver),and to appear with Mrs. Harper on a popular reality TV show (India's equivalent to "So You Think You Can Dance?"). Harper was quoted in the Indian press as saying "India...has frankly no closer cultural and human relations with any other developed country than it does with Canada." The Official Meetings -------------- ¶3. (U) In Delhi, PM Harper met with Prime Minister Singh, President Patil, Vice President Ansari, and Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi. He received calls at his hotel from Foreign Minister Krishna and opposition leader Advani. The meeting with PM Singh included Foreign Minister Krishna, Minister of Commerce Sharma, National Security Advisor Narayanan, Special Envoy for Climate Change Shyam Saran, Atomic Energy Commission chairman Kakodkar, and G-20 representative Montek Singh Ahluwalia. Canadian High Commission Deputy Chief of Mission Jim Nichol told us the leaders exchanged facts and perspectives on global and regional issues, but focused primarily on the optimistic outlook for the bilateral relationship. Regional Issues -------------- ¶4. (U) Each side touched on their economic development efforts in Afghanistan. Singh expressed concern whether Karzai would be able to keep momentum on reform and development, worrying that further destabilization in Afghanistan could lead to regional instability. Harper committed to working with India to fight international terrorism and extended condolences for the Mumbai attack, stressing the need for the perpetrators to be brought to justice. The Financial Crisis -------------- ¶5. (U) Harper and Singh, both of whom are trained economists, bonded over a discussion of the global economic recovery and highlighted that Canada and India have weathered the crisis well due to their financial and regulatory regimes. Canada plans to co-host the June 2010 G-20 meeting with Korea: Singh will attend. Both sides agreed on the importance of economic stability and recovery. Climate Change -------------- ¶6. (U) On climate change, DCM Nichol reported that there was a "certain recognition" on both sides of the need for positive outcomes in Copenhagen, but he was not optimistic about significant results. At minimum, he said, the two NEW DELHI 00002401 002 OF 002 countries expressed hope for a strong political statement. The Deliverables: Some Disappointments -------------- ¶7. (U) The Prime Ministers launched a Joint Study Group to examine possibilities for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA). The group will meet in December and is to complete the study before Singh's June visit to Canada for the G-20. Also inked was an MOU on Energy covering a wide range of issues. A number of hoped-for bilateral agreements were not achieved during this visit, DCM Nichol told us. Canada had aimed to finalize the Foreign Investment Promotion Agreement, the Bilateral Social Security Agreement, the MOU on Cultural Understanding and the Civil Nuclear Agreement. Nichol shared that India will launch "the year of India in Canada" in 2011, and the cultural understanding MOU needs to be finalized in order to assist in developing approaches to the program. Civil Nuclear Agreement -------------- ¶8. (U) Though a civil nuclear agreement was not reached during the visit, Singh and Harper met on the sidelines of the November 28 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Port of Spain and announced an agreement that will allow the countries to resume nuclear trade after a gap of 34 years (Note: Canada suspended nuclear trade with India in 1974 after India tested a nuclear device engineered with misappropriated Canadian technology). Canadian Political and Economic Counselor Julia Bentley told us that an inconclusive round of negotiations was held on November 14 and 15 in Mumbai ahead of Harper's official meetings in India. An agreement was reached during a November 23 follow-up negotiation in Toronto, but it was not announced immediately. The agreement will still be subject to legal scrubs and parliamentary reviews on both sides: Bentley told us she was not sure the legal processes would be completed in time to inaugurate the civil nuclear agreement during Singh's trip to Canada for the G-20 meeting in June. She indicated, however, that several other "less complicated" deliverables are on track. The Joint Statement -------------- ¶9. (U) The tone of the joint statement was positive, with commitments to strengthen the bilateral relationship in areas including economics and trade, education, culture, sports, and tourism and to increase bilateral trade from USD 5 billion to USD 15 billion within five years. Furthermore, the statement noted the two government's agreement to finalize negotiations on several bilateral agreements including an Investment promotion and Protection Agreement, the Social Security Agreement, and the Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement (as announced at the CHOGM). Prime Minister Singh told the press that India-Canada relations have strengthened under Harper's administration and that his visit added "fresh momentum" to the relationship. (Note: full text of the joint statement and statement to the press available at http://meaindia.nic.in). ¶10. (U) COMMENT: As the largest producer of uranium in the world, Canada could be a key partner for uranium-hungry India. The two countries have strong cultural ties to build on, and a great deal of potential to expand their economic relationship. We suspect that many of the hoped-for deliverables, including the Civil-Nuclear Agreement, were not ready for the visit simply because of capacity issues at the Indian MEA which was preoccupied with preparations for PM Singh's high-profile trip to the US at the same time that Harper visited India. END COMMMENT. ROEMER