BJP MELTDOWN, HARYANA RAMIFICATIONS

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 001789 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL, DS/IP/SCA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC IN SUBJECT: BJP MELTDOWN, HARYANA RAMIFICATIONS REF: A. NEW DELHI 1769 ¶B. NEW DELHI 1747 ¶C. NEW DELHI 880 ¶1. (U) The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has parted ways with its occasional ally, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana, electing to fight the upcoming state assembly elections on its own. INLD leader and former Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala termed the decision "unilateralism" and downplayed the development, claiming that the BJP and INLD were still friends. While the alliance theoretically serves both parties by pooling INLD's rural base with the BJP's urban appeal, it faltered miserably in the 2009 parliamentary elections, failing to get a single seat in the state. When The Cats Are Away, The State Leadership Will Play -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Ostensibly, the BJP's decision to part ways with the INLD stemmed from a disagreement over distribution of assembly seats between the two parties. However, it no secret that BJP rank and file in Haryana were loathe to accept the corruption-riddled INLD as a partner in the 2009 parliamentary elections. Central BJP had leadership pressured the BJP,s Haryana cadre to accept an alliance with the INLD, despite allegations of inept governance and the Chautala family,s reputation for corruption and strong-arm electioneering tactics. With the national BJP in steady meltdown mode and leadership chaos (Ref B),the BJP,s Haryana unit felt empowered to have its way on this matter. A senior BJP leader told Poloff that the INLD was so discredited in the state that there was no value, but many pitfalls for the BJP in continuing the alliance. He said that one of the problems for the BJP in Haryana is that it has been unable to groom a state leader with sufficient stature and appeal to lead a campaign. Comment: More Flux, More Opportunities For Anti-Congress Consolidation? --- ¶3. (SBU) At first glance, the BJP-INLD divorce will split the anti-Congress, anti-incumbency vote in Haryana, giving the Congress an edge in the October 2009 assembly elections. However, with the INLD and BJP parting ways, Haryana is ripe for a number of new political permutations; some could hurt the Congress. Mayawati,s Bahujan Samaj Party and Bhajan Lal,s Janhit Congress alliances command 25 percent of the vote in Haryana. With the INLD,s historical 15 percent share splitting from the BJP,s 12 percent share, the field of political free agents willing to team up against the Congress just got wider. ROEMER