UPA 2.0: SLOW AND STEADY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001749 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: UPA 2.0: SLOW AND STEADY REF: A. NEW DELHI 1620 ¶B. NEW DELHI 1401 ¶C. NEW DELHI 1319 ¶D. NEW DELHI 1285 ¶E. NEW DELHI 1278 ¶F. NEW DELHI 1226 ¶G. NEW DELHI 1163 ¶H. NEW DELHI 1030 ¶I. MUMBAI 328 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The newly constituted Indian parliament concluded its first post-election session on August 7 after approving the annual national budget and passing important legislation on education while shelving several other pressing matters. The budget session was a mild disappointment for theQivate sector, which had hoped that an UPA unencumbered by troublesome allies and holding a comfortable majority would tackle economic reforms. The fireworks were on full display in parliament, but not over the budget, as was expected, or over economic or social sector reform, as was hoped for. The real battles took place over two foreign policy initiatives: resumption of the India-Pakistan bilateral dialogue that had become a casualty of the Mumbai terror attacks; and U.S.-India agreement on End Use Monitoring (EUM) language. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led the charge and was joined by other opposition parties. The BJP surprised everyone, including itself, with its tough performance in parliament. It heartened dejected BJP-ers who had suffered a season of public anguish and bitter internal dissent following their trouncing in the 2009 general elections. END SUMMARY. The Budget Session: Busting The Private Sector's Great Expectations -------------- ¶2. (U) Barely acknowledging the private sector,s economic reform priorities, the first post-election session of the Indian Parliament passed a pragmatic budget (Ref I). Indian industry reaction was one of disappointment due to the budget's failure to lay out a reform roadmap (Ref B). The budget did not ease regulation impeding the inflow of foreign investment or quicken the pace of privatization of state-owned enterprises. These reforms have eluded Prime Minister Singh and his economic team for the past five years; this budget session was no exception (Ref I). Some economic reform bills, such as the Insurance Act and Pension Act, which lapsed with the dissolution of the 14th Lok Sabha and the election of a new Parliament, were simply not reintroduced during the session. On discretionary spending, the government focused predominantly on increasing funding for the its signature National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme (Ref D) and rural and urban infrastructure. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee targeted long-term growth and productivity increases through investment in better roads, electricity, and housing. Sharm-el-Sheikh" Overshadows All -------------- ¶3. (U) Besides the budget, the UPA introduced 14 bills in parliament; eight of them passed both houses, and became law -- a moderately successful parliamentary session in today's cautious Indian legislative environment. The most important measure that made it out of parliament was the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Bill, which proposes a combination of central and state funding to provide education in neighborhood schools to all Indian children between the ages of six and fourteen. ¶4. (U) Public and media attention, however, focused less on such domestic legislation and more on two foreign policy issues -- the Prime Minister,s July 16 joint statement with Pakistani Premier Gilani (Ref A) and an agreement on EUM NEW DELHI 00001749 002 OF 003 language reached during Secretary Clinton's visit in July. Parliamentary debate centered on agreeing to anything with Pakistan after its inadequate response to the Mumbai terrorist attacks. The fiercest criticism was reserved for a reference in the document that appeared to acknowledge Indian meddling in Baluchistan (Ref A). The opposition accused the Prime Minister of acting unilaterally on foreign policy issues and orchestrating a "complete turnaround" on relations with Pakistan (See paragraph 6). The BJP characterized the agreement on EUM as a sellout of sovereignty. ¶5. (U) Parliament extended a constitutional amendment allowing caste-based affirmative action programs benefitting Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes until 2020, as well as appropriation bills for the national railway network and the New Delhi Metro. The Workmen,s Compensation Bill and the National Commission for Minority Educational Institutions Act failed to make it through parliament and become law. BJP: Still Ferocious -------------- ¶6. (U) Despite grave internal troubles and brewing succession battles (Ref E),the BJP pulled together a solid, united performance in parliament. After sustained media criticism of the BJP as a feeble and ineffectual opposition, the BJP parliamentary gladiators systematically attacked the GoI,s foreign policy initiatives. The BJP smelled blood at internal dissension within the Congress on Sharm-el-Sheikh and went on the offensive. Blasting the government for giving away too much in negotiations with Pakistan, the BJP supplemented its attacks with protests and walk-outs, a tactic used often for dramatic effect in Indian legislatures. Former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha said that the Prime Minister had joined "the Pakistan camp in Egypt" and poked at the Congress party's public reluctance to support the Prime Minister. Deputy Opposition Leader Sushma Swaraj accused the current government of compromising India,s sovereignty by agreeing to EUM. Marketing themselves as the sole purveyors of strong foreign policy, the BJP attacked the UPA undeterred by the fact that prior BJP-led governments had worked with the U.S. and Pakistan on similar foreign policy initiatives. P.M. Singh: Getting Ahead of His Party... -------------- ¶7. (SBU) A Congress parliamentarian privately complained to PolOff that Prime Minister Singh had gotten ahead of his party members on the Sharm-el-Sheikh joint statement. It took the intervention of Congress Party chief Sonia Gandhi to quiet the rumblings of dissent within Congress that the PM may have given away too much with Pakistan. Gandhi finally came out firmly behind the Prime Minister, sending an unmistakable signal to the party to muzzle any criticism of the Prime Minister and the joint statement. Eventually, the Congress party and UPA allies cobbled together an image of unity, but the damage had been done. ... Not Building Consensus. -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Janata Dal (United) President Sharad Yadav did not parrot BJP,s aggressive attacks on the Prime Minister. Instead, he used more nuanced arguments, raising concerns in parliament about Singh,s "unilateralism" in a traditionally consensus driven foreign policy process. He complained that the Congress-led UPA coalition was "not taking opposition leaders into confidence" (REF A),a charge echoed by the Left and by such notional Congress allies like Lalu Yadav, and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Slacker MP,s? -------------- NEW DELHI 00001749 003 OF 003 ¶9. (U) Allegations of absenteeism caused some damage to the Congress party in parliament this session and led Sonia Gandhi to urge her party members to attend all parliamentary debates. During the Prime Minister,s address on Sharm-el-Sheikh, television cameras focused on the tightly packed opposition benches, and then panned to the loosely populated UPA section. While Congress stalwarts and ministers filled the front seats, the back benches were thinly occupied. The Young Turks: Still a Honeymoon with the Media -------------- ¶10. (U) The media romance with young parliamentarians continued during this budget session (Ref F). National daily Indian Express tabulated every move of Parliament,s young new stars. Their absences, speeches on the parliament floor, questions, tea breaks, entrances and exits all became photo opportunities and fodder for the Indian press. Female Empowerment: Did we say 100 days? -------------- ¶11. (U) As part of its 100-day action plan, the UPA government had promised to introduce a bill which would set aside half the slots in elected village councils (panchayats) and city municipalities for women. The UPA government promised 100 percent literacy for women -- the current rate is about 54 percent -- in the next five years through the National Mission for Female Literacy. Neither of these bills saw the light of day in this budget session, confirming the concerns of former UPA Minister of Women and Child Development Renuka Chowdhury, who had predicted that Congress would be unable to push through a strong reformist agenda on women,s and children,s issues. Comment: BJP Bump; Consensus is King -------------- ¶12. (SBU) In terms of legislation, this was a reasonably successful parliamentary session for the government. It got its budget and passed important education and social sector legislation. However, on pure political dynamics, the BJP outscored the Congress. After a season of public finger-pointing and caustic internal dissent following its trouncing in the 2009 elections, BJP-ers were heartened by the party's unified and tough performance in parliament. It helped build internal party confidence, but this may prove short-lived as controversy over BJP's poor showing in the elections and possible leadership changes continues. The BJP drew blood when it came out swinging against the Sharm-el-Sheikh joint statement; but it may be disappointed if it believes the tough-on-terrorism stance will give it traction in the upcoming state assembly polls in Maharashtra or Haryana. The national elections demonstrated that concern over terrorism is a minor factor, if any, even in places hardest hit by terrorist attacks. That more controversial pieces of legislation dealing with women,s rights and economic reform did not surface, despite the UPA's ambitious hundred day agenda and its comfortable majority in parliament, demonstrates the risk-averse nature of Indian politics. END COMMENT ROEMER