PRIME MINISTER TO UNDERGO BY-PASS SURGERY

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000154 SIPDIS DEPT FOR S STAFF, P, SCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER TO UNDERGO BY-PASS SURGERY Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (SBU) Media sources and government officials confirmed that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will undergo heart by-pass surgery tomorrow as one or more of his arteries have blockages. He was admitted to hospital tonight. Minister of State for External Affairs confirmed this to DCM and MEA Joint Secretary Gaitri Kumar and Congress Party leader Digvijay Singh confirmed this to PolCouns today. ¶2. (C) Our contacts in the Prime Minister's Office tell us that a team of doctors from Mumbai flew to Delhi today to conduct a pre-operation assessment. The procedure is expected to last two-three hours followed by 24 hours in the ICU and a four-week recuperation period. Dr. K.S. Reddy, a cardiologist from the All India Institute of Medical Sciences who has been the PM's personal physician, will head the medical team responsible for the operation. The medical team is likely to recommend that the Prime Minister excuse himself from election campaigning this March-May. ¶3. (C) MEA's Kumar told PolCouns Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has already assumed the responsibilities of the Prime Minister and will remain acting Prime Minister until such time as Manmohan Singh is well enough to resume his duties. MEA's Sharma told DCM that the GOI has cancelled all high level visits to India scheduled for the coming weeks. Mukherjee has served as acting Prime Minister on previous occasions during this government's tenure when the PM was out of the country. ¶4. (C) Comment: Embassy notes that there are no constitutionally mandated rules of succession in India in the event of a Prime Minister's death in office. The constitution merely requires that the majority party in parliament select a leader and notify the President of the selection. Three Prime Ministers have died in office in India in the past -- Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri and Indira Gandhi. The succession process followed after their deaths offers some precedence for what is likely to happen. In each instance, the Congress Party chose the senior most cabinet minister as acting Prime Minister while the party leadership met/negotiated to select a new Prime Minister. The time taken for this process varied from a day or two (when Rajiv Gandhi was selected to succeed his mother) to more than a month (when Indira Gandhi was chosen to succeed Lal Bahadur Shastri.) The Prime Minister's health issues open up the debate once again of who will be Prime Minister if the Congress Party returns to power after the election. Mukherjee and Defense Minister Anthony are obvious candidates should Manmohan Singh not be up for the job. Rahul Gandhi's chances will increase if the Congress does better than expected in the April-May elections. WHITE