NEW DELHI WEEKLY ECON OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000150 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR SCA/INS AND EEB USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/OSA/LDROKER/ASTERN/KRUDD DEPT OF ENERGY FOR A/S KHARBERT, TCUTLER, CZAMUDA, RLUHAR DEPT PASS TO USTR CLILIENFELD/AADLER/CHINCKLEY DEPT PASS TO TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF SOUTH ASIA MNUGENT TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN USDA PASS FAS/OCRA/RADLER/BEAN/CARVER/RIKER EEB/CIP DAS GROSS, FSAEED, MSELINGER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAGR EAIR ECPS EFIN EINV EMIN ENRG EPET ETRD BEXP, KIPR, KWMN, IN SUBJECT: NEW DELHI WEEKLY ECON OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 20 TO JANUARY 23, 2009 ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of economic highlights from Embassy New Delhi for the week of January 20-23, 2009, including the following: -- Montek Ahluwalia on 2009: "Brace Yourselves" -- Canadian FIPA/BIT Still Being Scrubbed -- GOI May Relax SEZ Norms Due to Low Export Demand -- Tourism in Bhutan Suffering from Economic Slowdown -- Coca Cola Moves Forward with $250 Million Investment -- South India Scores Well in World Bank Study of State Investment Climates in India Montek Ahluwalia on 2009: "Brace Yourselves" -------------- ¶2. (U) Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia spoke to the CII's annual Partnership Summit January 20 and warned that the current global economic crisis is far from over. He observed that when the G-20 was convened last September, the sense both then and at the actual November Summit itself was that measures currently being taken would turn around the financial markets. Yet, the markets still have not stabilized, nor is it clear when they will, Ahluwalia posited. Best-case scenarios point toward a possible stabilization of financial markets by mid-2009. He compared the state of today's world economy with the Great Depression, and asserted that the first seven months of the Depression were as bad as current conditions. The one big difference between then and now, however, is that governments from every major economy, including Germany (which in November was skeptical) have agreed on the necessity of implementing major stimulus packages. ¶3. (U) With such "concerted" (as opposed to "coordinated") collective efforts, Ahluwalia predicted the world may see a turnaround in the real economy by the 4th quarter of 2009. In any case, he stressed, "It's going to be a bad year, and everybody should brace themselves for that." Airtel CEO Sunil Mittal echoed Ahluwalia's description of the dire conditions in the financial ;markets. Mittal, speaking from the prospective of both a CEO and as a board member of Standard Chartered Bank, said that "Serious businesses are finding it impossible to raise serious capital". He backed the call for a stimulus package. Speaking on domestic policy, Ahluwalia said that Prime Minister Singh has put economic revival at the top of his agenda. Inflation, he added, is within an acceptable range and will likely continue to fall. He stated that any next government will have to present a new budget that continues to push for further fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. In the interim, Ahluwalia clarified that he had been misquoted recently when he said there would be no third stimulus package before the elections. What he had said was that there would be no further tax rate changes between now and the next budget. He made this clarification so that people did not withhold major purchases in anticipation of any more tax cuts in the near future. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: India's "code of conduct" does not permit new government spending or tax relief measures to be implemented after election dates have been called. Thus, the window for any additional fiscal measures is likely to last through the end of February, when elections are expected to be announced. Since fiscal measures will then most likely not be available from March to the end of May/early June, market analysts are expecting the central bank to delay further interest rate reductions for now, to hold monetary policy in reserve for the months ahead when fiscal policy will not be available to respond to any new adverse conditions. End comment. Canadian FIPA/BIT Still Being Scrubbed -------------- ¶5. (SBU) MEA Joint Secretary Gaitri Kumar told EconCouns earlier this week that the Canadian-India Bilateral Investment Treaty (called a FIPA by the Canadians and a BIPA by the Indians) has NEW DELHI 00000150 002 OF 003 undergone 12 rounds of negotiations, with the 13th round taking place this week with the visit of Canada's Trade Minister. A senior trade officer of the Canadian High Commission disputed that characterization, stating that the two sides had completed talks in July 2007. India and Canada were now in the process of "scrubbing" the text to put it in legally operative language. The official attributed Kumar's comment to some confusion over the trade minister's visit, where a number of economic issues were discussed. GOI May Relax SEZ Norms Due to Low Export Demand -------------- -- ¶6. (U) At a Conference on Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Gujarat, Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai announced his ministry's plans to relax SEZ norms for export sectors that have been adversely affected by the economic slowdown. The incentive package will include relaxing foreign exchange earning obligations and permit units in SEZs to sell in domestic markets without paying customs duty on a percentage of their finished products. However, the stimulus package will be limited to a period of one year. ¶7. (U) The announcement of new fiscal measures came against a backdrop of government estimates that exports from SEZs are expected to fall 25 percent short of the targeted USD 25 billion for 2008-09. According to Pillai, as of December 2008, exports from SEZs were USD 14 billion and total exports from these zones were likely to be about USD 20 billion for 2008-09, USD 5 billion short of the targeted amount. Tourism in Bhutan Suffering from Economic Slowdown -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Mr. Khandu Wangchuk, Minister of Economic Affairs for the Government of Bhutan, spoke at a CII Summit in Delhi last week on the impact of the global economic slowdown on Bhutan's economy. Wangchuck asserted that the country's tourism industry in particular has been affected. Local media reports that the Association of Bhutanese Tour Operators (ABTO) asked the government for measures including deferment of the planned tariff revision, which at present requires tourists to pay $200 per day and was planned to increase to $250 in 2009. The government recently agreed to defer the tariff revision to a later date. Last year, tourism tariffs generated $40 million for the Bhutanese government. The government also agreed to provide discounts on the tariff in the amount of $20 during the peak season and $15 during the off season, after the ninth night of stay in Bhutan. Tour operators have criticized the discount, saying that on average, tourists spend only six nights in Bhutan, making the discount irrelevant and not conducive to reviving the industry. As additional measures to help the tourism sector, the Hotel Association of Bhutan, which typically increases rates by 10 percent each year, agreed to not raise room rates and Druk Air agreed to resume low season discounts and to reduce surcharges. Coca Cola Moves Forward with $250 Million Investment -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Coca Cola announced its intent to move forward with plans to invest $250 million in India, despite the economic slowdown. Through the quarter ended in September 2008, Coca Cola posted growth for nine consecutive quarters, six of which were double digit. The investment is intended for expansion of Coca-Cola's businQ over the next three years, including the introduction of new products to the Indian market. Coca Cola is also supporting several corporate social responsibility initiatives (CSR) soon plans to launch a Coca Cola India Foundation to support CSR projects. Coca Cola currently collaborates with an NGO on water harvesting projects in 39 villages and funds potable drinking water for schools in Chennai and West Bengal. South India Scores Well in World Bank Study of State Investment Climates in India -------------- NEW DELHI 00000150 003 OF 003 ¶10. (SBU) The World Bank released a study on January 19 rating the investment climate in 16 Indian states. Not surprisingly, South India did well in the survey, with three of the South's four states taking three of the top four places. What was surprising, however, was that communist-governed (and investment-poor) Kerala came in at number two, while Tamil Nadu -- generally proud of its prowess at attracting foreign investment -- was relegated to an embarrassing ninth place. Karnataka was first, Andhra Pradesh fourth, and Gujarat (the only non-South-Indian state to make the top four) was third. The survey assessed both perceptions and more objective measures of institutions and "inputs" like labor costs and access to finance to reach its conclusions. ¶11. (SBU) While quibbles can always be made with rankings of this sort (the data used, for example, is quite old, having been collected in 2005),the survey is a stark and useful reminder of the impediments that poor infrastructure and poor governance pose on the economic performance of many Indian states. The report specifically identifies the feeble condition of power and transportation infrastructure, tax regulations, and theft as the most important "bottlenecks" to improving the business environment in India's states, with infrastructure being the most important. States that fail to get infrastructure right, the report notes, consistently "show low levels of domestic investment and GDP growth." ¶12. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov/p/sa/newdelhi WHITE