INDO-PAK TALKS: ON THE ROAD AGAIN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001485 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PK IN SUBJECT: INDO-PAK TALKS: ON THE ROAD AGAIN? REF: A. ISLAMABAD 01589 ¶B. NEW DELHI 01466 ¶C. NEW DELHI 001276 ¶D. NEW DELHI 001266 Classified By: Acting POLCOUNS Lesslie Viguerie for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Indian Prime Minister Singh's July 16 meeting in Sharm el Sheikh with Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani has drawn a heated reaction from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Left. The political fallout threatens to overshadow the potential positive developments stemming from the leaders' meeting. Although the opposition and the press have portrayed Singh as having caved to the Pakistanis, the content and tenor of the discussion, and the commitment to have regular Foreign Secretary-level meetings in a run-up to a Foreign Ministers' meet on the fringes of the UNGA, gives a glimmer of hope for future positive developments. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Indian opposition is making hay of Prime Minister Singh's alleged "capitulation" to Pakistan in his July 16 meeting with Prime Minister Gilani on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement conference in Sharm el Sheikh. At issue is language in the Joint Statement on the relationship between Pakistan's efforts to fight terrorism directed at India and a full resumption of the bilateral dialogue. Following opposition leader L.K. Advani's lead, BJP representatives walked out of the Lok Sabha during the Prime Minister's report on the meeting during a July 17 session. Arun Jaitley, leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, termed the "new stand" "surprising and disappointing," claiming the statement reverses India's long standing policy of no dialogue without action on terrorism. Left parties are crowing that the U.S. pushed India into talks with Pakistan. ¶3. (C) The hullabaloo threatens to overturn what should have been a positive development. Exactly one month after Prime Minister Singh met with Pakistani President Zardari on the fringes of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Yekaterinburg (ref D),Singh and Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani again took tentative steps toward reengagement. In a formal statement issued after the meeting, the two leaders acknowledged that "dialogue is the only way forward" and agreed on a meeting between their Foreign Ministers in late September on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly after a series of preparatory meetings by the Foreign Secretaries. ¶4. (C) The screeches from the opposition and press are focused on the joint statement's inclusion of language that "action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue process," leading the Indian media to claim that Singh had given too much. The full sentence reads, "Action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue process and these should not be bracketed." Singh subsequently insisted there was no change in India's position that "any meaningful dialogue cannot begin without addressing our main concern ) terrorism," while Gilani told a post-summit press conference that the two had agreed that terrorism and the Mumbai attack should not be "bracketed" with dialogue. ¶5. (SBU) The opposition is also trumpeting the statement's reference (according to the press, the first in a bilateral document) to threats that Pakistan faces in Baluchistan (the statement includes, "Prime Minister Gilani mentioned that Pakistan has some information about threats in Baluchistan and other areas."),even though it does not mention Kashmir. Little Coverage of Discussions across the Board -------------- ¶6. (U) Although the focus has not surprisingly been on the references, or lack of such, to terrorism, the two leaders apparently discussed many issues, including the potential of Indo-Pakistan relations, how to realize that potential, and an agreement to work to create an atmosphere of mutual trust NEW DELHI 00001485 002 OF 002 and confidence. In the two days before the Prime Ministers' meeting, Foreign Secretaries Menon and Bashir discussed steps Islamabad had taken to address terrorism emanating from its territory. Indian National Security Adviser, M.K. Narayanan, and the respective Foreign Ministers joined Singh and Gilani halfway through their meeting to develop the joint statement. Official Views from Indian and Pakistani High Commision Officials -------------- ¶7. (C) Pakistan High Commission PolOff Irfan Ahmed dismissed such press criticism as "flag waving" and deemed "typical" the media's attempt to pick holes in the GOI's strategy of renewed engagement. Ahmed observed the way in which Singh dealt with pressure during the press briefing following his meeting with Gilani, opining Singh was "forced to deny things" that were agreed to in the joint statement ) referring specifically to the statement that action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue process. Commenting that Singh would have been better served by standing by the statement rather than backing away when pushed, Ahmed hoped the Indian Government would balance its desire to engage Pakistan with its need to keep the public satisfied. ¶8. (C) According to Balasubramanian, MEA's Deputy Secretary for Indo-Pakistan issues, the media is having a field day with the references to the Composite Dialogue and Baluchistan in the joint statement, but he too dismissed the negative light the media has cast over Singh's interaction with Gilani, saying he was very clear that the CD would not resume until India was satisfied with the action Pakistan had taken to address terrorism. Balasubramanian had hoped the Prime Minister would have a chance to provide further clarification in his address to Parliament. ¶9. (C) Comment: Despite GOI's insistence that the CD remains on hold, it is evident that Singh, who has held two high level meetings with the GOP in a month's time, is attempting to move beyond a strategy of disengagement. Such high-level engagement will pave the way toward a less hostile relationship between the two countries, but the relationship is still a delicate one which could easily rupture in the event of another major terrorist attack in India which links back to Pakistan. While there was reportedly no discussion over the issue of Kashmir, Singh's statement that India is ready to discuss 'all issues' with Pakistan demonstrates a softened stance. Singh is trying to find a balance between a longstanding policy of engaging Islamabad and public anger and political pressure over Pakistan's halting efforts to pursue and prosecute the Mumbai attackers. ¶10. (C) Comment Continued: At this stage, we do not assign too much importance to the opposition's theatrics. The BJP is known to walk out on sessions regularly, and headlines such in as that in today's The Mint saying "BJP Almost Invisible in Lok Sabha" may have further prompted the BJP to take a visible stand on a front page issue. End Comment. ROEMER