BJP IMPLOSION OR REINVENTION?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001278 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM IN SUBJECT: BJP IMPLOSION OR REINVENTION? REF: A. NEW DELHI 755 ¶B. NEW DELHI 559 ¶C. NEW DELHI 209 ¶D. NEW DELHI 129 ¶E. NEW DELHI 109 ¶F. 2004 NEW DELHI 7389 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's (UPA) unexpectedly decisive victory in India's general election has left the country's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in disarray. The fallout of this drubbing has shattered the image of the BJP as a disciplined and unified party. The election loss also strained the BJP's relationship with its grassroots partner and ideological rightwing Hindu fountainhead, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Top BJP leader L.K. Advani and party president Rajnath Singh took responsibility for loss and promptly announced they would step down. Upon the urging of senior BJP officials, L.K. Advani walked back his retirement announcement within days to forestall a messy succession battle within the BJP. Since then, factions and personalities within the BJP have been engaged in increasingly vitriolic public blame games which threaten to make the party the object of public ridicule. Some analysts believe that this public and private bloodletting can be a healthy catharsis for the party and much preferred to pushing the defeat and its lessons under the carpet. But, if it goes too far, it could also lead to a broken, split and fragmented party that is not a credible national force any longer. END SUMMARY. BJP on the Mat -------------- ¶2. (U) The UPA won 274 seats against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition's paltry 157 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) election. The Congress-BJP margin was 206-112, far better for the Congress than the neck-to-neck battle that most pundits and both parties had expected. The Congress gained at the expense of both the regional parties and the BJP, which lost about 25 seats from its strength of 137 in 2004 election. Back-to-back Defeats: Rude Awakening for the BJP -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) After two resounding back-to-back general election losses to the Congress Party in 2004 and 2009, pundits are beginning to question the ability of the party to remain a credible political force. The party bounced back from its 2004 elections debacle by attributing it to a misplaced India Shining campaign and proceeded to win a string of state assembly elections. The 2009 defeat has been more demoralizing and has led to a frenzy of mudslinging and finger pointing with daily public attacks against the party leadership and its campaign strategy. Heads Rolling? Not Really -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In the immediate aftermath of the election results, top BJP leader and prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani announced his retirement from active politics, taking full morale responsibility for the party's trouncing at the polls. Panicked party lieutenants prevailed on Advani to walk back his decision to avoid a vacuum, which they feared would trigger a bloody succession battle within the BJP. They persuaded Advani to remain in the Leader of the Opposition post in the Lok Sabha 'for the good of the party' and to name others of his choice to the leadership posts in the two houses. After a few days of bitter internal feuding within the party, BJP President Rajnath Singh announced he would not run for another term at the conclusion of his tenure at the end of the year. Post-election Analysis or Civil War? NEW DELHI 00001278 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the immediate wake of the elections, the BJP attempted to keep the lid on the internal discontent by persuading Advani to remain in place and announcing a series of introspection meetings in the coming weeks. Advani's appointment of Arun Jaitley as Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) and Sushma Swaraj as the Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha blew the top off the internal wrangling. Former Foreign Minister and former Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Jaswant Singh, angry at not having been named deputy to Advani in the new Lok Sabha, attacked the appointments. He complained that Arun Jaitley, who directed the BJP election campaign, did not deserve this promotion after his campaign mismanagement. Then another former Foreign Minister, Yashwant Sinha, resigned from all posts in the party and released to the media a scathing letter attacking the party leadership, critiquing Jaitley's undeserved ascension, and calling for accountability for those who drove the BJP to defeat. ¶6. (U) Sudheendra Kulkarni, senior Advani aide and campaign strategist, wrote an introspective article dissecting the BJP campaign failures. He accused the RSS and BJP leadership of undermining Advani's Prime Ministerial bid and making him "appear weak". Former National Security Advisor and retired BJP hand Brajesh Mishra blamed the party's support of Varun Gandhi and condoning of his virulent anti-Muslim attacks (Ref. B). He excoriated the BJP leadership for not distancing themselves from Gandhi's "repugnant" comments and not stripping Gandhi of his BJP ticket in Uttar Pradesh. Sushma Swaraj added fuel to the fire when she said that RSS participation at the introspection meetings or "chintan baithaks" was "not necessary." Darling of the business community, fire-brand Gujarat Chief Minister Narender Modi ran for cover, retreated to his chief ministership and distanced himself from the looming party civil war. RSS Distances Itself -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Senior RSS leadership has gone on the record to downplay their association with the defeated BJP. RSS spokesman Ram Madhav told Poloff that it was up to the BJP to resurrect itself and the RSS would play no part in the effort. He said that RSS cadre had worked hard for the party in the elections but the BJP was responsible for its own defeat because it was still stuck in 1999. In his view, the BJP had failed to convince the electorate that it had any fresh ideas to offer ten years on, in contrast to the Rahul-brigade's image of a young and future oriented Congress Party. Others in the RSS saw the 2009 BJP campaign as an abandonment of RSS ideology. Former RSS spokesperson and senior ideologue M.G. Vaidya accused Advani of "not enthusing the Hindus" and of losing credibility with the RSS base. Writing in the pro-RSS Marathi daily Tarun Bharat, Vaidya states "the BJP must reflect Hindu nationalism or else it is free to remain as any other party not associated with us." Congress-Lite: BJP's Own "Aam Aadmi" Campaign -------------- ¶8. (SBU) According to analysts, the BJP struggled with focus and definition during the 2009 election. Political observers note that the party moved from issue to issue during the campaign - accusations of weak and indecisive Congress leadership, illegal Indian money overseas, faltering economy, uncertain security - with none finding traction. The BJP's new 'common man' approach failed at the polls because the electorate saw it as disingenuous and a weak clone of the Congress Party platform. Advani tried to project himself as a pragmatic Iron-man, attempting to paint Manmohan Singh as a weak and indecisive, an attack that backfired miserably. The party suffered a damaging backlash from Hindus and Muslims NEW DELHI 00001278 003 OF 003 alike when it did not distance itself from Varun Gandhi's sharp communal remarks (Ref. B). Gandhi won his own seat but may have cost the BJP many more because the broader Indian electorate had no stomach for his extreme communal rhetoric. In the end, no one factor can be identified as the seminal reason for the BJP's defeat. It was the confluence of these factors that led to the party's sound and, apparently, debilitating loss this May. Going Right? Going Left? Going in Circles? -------------- ¶9. (U) Some Hindutva hardliners have advised a return to the BJP's pro-Hindutva roots. They argue that the party gained in Karnataka where there was some communal strife and moral policing by fringe Hindutva groups. The ascension of leaders like M.M. Joshi or Narender Modi in the upcoming months would signal a swing to the right. Even if the BJP were to turn right and turn in a stellar performance in the Hindi Belt where Hindutva has had some appeal in the past (Rajasthan, U.P., Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Haryana),it could cost the party more in the non-Hindi Belt. In any event, the Hindi Belt cannot by itself yield a majority in parliament and support from non-Hindutva states in the south and east is necessary to form a stable government. ¶10. (U) In that case, re-branding the BJP as a stable, unbashedly right-of-center national party in the mode of the Christian Democrats in Germany, divorced from the RSS and its sharp religious rhetoric, might be the way to go. The challenge of being a national party without retaining its RSS cadre base is substantial. Still other political pundits are advising the BJP to stand together as a consortium of regional interests, with strong Chief Ministers representing good governance at the center of the party. Each of these potential new BJP avatars will require some serious party-restructuring. COMMENT: Bewildered BJP -------------- ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: The BJP's crushing election loss has helped reveal some of its fundamental weaknesses -- a paucity of fresh ideas, no clear policy distinctions with its rival, an aging leadership with no second tier ready to step up, and limits of the Hindutva card. The struggle within the BJP as it tries to come to terms with its devastating loss will take time and it is impossible to say what will emerge - broken, split, fragmented remnants of the party or a reinvented, revitalized party that has gone through a cathartic experience and emerged with new ideas and leadership. If the party confronts its failings squarely and implements a credible strategy to address them, the party could remerge stronger and ready to repeat its performance of the 1990s when it expanded steadily before wresting power in 1998. If it merely sweeps its shortcomings under the rug while its leaders continue to undercut each other as they vie for parliamentary and party posts and the privileges that go with them, it is possible that the BJP could be permanently damaged as a viable national party. Its regional leaders would then be tempted to go their own way as the party fragments into pieces of different shapes and political hues depending on the state and region. L.K. Advani's temporary return as opposition leader skirts the inevitable succession battle for the moment but it will be something the party will have to deal with in the coming weeks and months and it will likely further aggravate the party's internal turmoil. END COMMENT. BURLEIGH