DELHI DIARY, JANUARY 12-16, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000105 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PTER IN EAGR SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JANUARY 12-16, 2009 ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from Embassy New Delhi for January 12-16, 2009, that did not feature in our other reporting, including: -- Budget Session February 12-26 -- April-May Schedule Expected for Parliamentary Elections -- Jharkhand Chief Minister Steps Down -- Congress Youth Wave: Primetime for Priyanka in UP? -- Somnath's Return to CPM Up in the Air -- Badal's Son Appointed Deputy CM in Punjab Budget Session February 12-26 - - - ¶2. (U) The Indian Parliament will meet to discuss budget issues from February 12-26, the last session before national elections due by this year. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government will seek Parliamentary authorization to spend money beyond the end of the fiscal year on March 31, 2009, and until a new government is in place following the April-May national elections. GOI will also present the following non-budgetary items: approval for the establishment of public universities, salary adjustment for high court and Supreme Court judges and changes to legislation relating to the Central Industrial Security Force to allow it to protect private sector facilities. The government has also offered to amend count-terrorism legislation passed in the December session if need be to address critics. April-May Schedule Expected for Parliamentary Elections -------------- ¶3. (U) While there has been no announcement yet, there is growing consensus that elections for the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) will take place in several tranches between mid-April and mid-May, with a new government expected in place by the first week of June. A formal call for elections by the government is anticipated shortly after the abridged February 12-26 budget session. The parameters of the election schedule are influenced by several organizational and legal compulsions. First, the 15th Lok Sabha must by law convene by June 6 because the five-year term of the 14th Lok Sabha expires on that date. Second, Lok Sabha rules require a minimum seven-day notice to newly elected members to assemble in Parliament. Third, a reasonable rule of thumb is that the complexities of negotiations to forge coalitions and form a multi-party government require about two weeks. Together, these conditions suggest that vote counting occur and election results be announced by May 15, at the latest. ¶4. (U) The massive security and organizational demands of the Indian election exercise require that the polls be staggered over a 3-4 week period, which suggests that the first phase of polling take place by the third week of April. The legally mandated 24-day "notification" period means that Election Commission must formally "notify" (or announce) the elections some time before the end of March. We expect the government to call for elections shortly after the end of the February parliamentary session, giving the Election Commission a few weeks in March to plan, schedule and notify the election. Jharkhand Chief Minister Steps Down --- ¶5. (U) Shibu Soren stepped down as Jharkhand Chief Minister on January 11, a few days after losing a state assembly by-election in an upset to a political newcomer. A veteran regional leader, Soren became CM in Jharkhand last August and was under constitutional obligation to contest state assembly NEW DELHI 00000105 002 OF 003 elections within six months. Journalist Harish Khare observed that Soren's resignation from office was a "victory for democracy," noting that local elections do result in real shift of power. ¶6. (SBU) In his forty-plus years in politics, Soren has served as the Indian Minister of Coal, MP of Jharkhand and founding president of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),the UPA's coalition partner in the state and in Delhi. His early years as a popular rabble rousing tribal leader have been overshadowed by numerous allegations of criminal misconduct and corruption, including bribery and murder. Congress Youth Wave: Primetime for Priyanka in UP? --- ¶7. (U) There is growing media speculation that Priyanka Gandhi, 35-year-old daughter of Sonia Gandhi, my contest upcoming Lok Sabha elections this year. At least six districts in Uttar Pradesh have called for Priyanka's nomination. All India Congress Committee officials on January 14 praised Priyanka as a "youth icon" who would bring welcome change to national politics. ¶8. (SBU) Priyanka's prospective entry into national politics is the latest in a series of Congress Party announcements targeted at mobilizing India's youth ahead of parliamentary elections. 35-year-old Omar Abdullah's January 5 inauguration as the Chief Minister of J&K played in the headlines for many days, followed shortly by Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee's highly publicized endorsement of Rahul Gandhi as the "future" Prime Minister of India. According to press, Congress leaders want to cash in on Priyanka's popularity in her husband Robert Vadra's home district of Moradabad, Uttar Pradesh. It is impossible to say what is driving the sudden calls for Priyanka to enter politics. Often, local Congress leaders use such exhortions to prove their fealty to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in the hope they can curry some small advantage over their rivals within the party. At other times, the party leadership itself orchestrates such calls, which the members of the dynasty then pretend they are duty-bound to accept as acts of sacrifice rather than of self-interest. Somnath's Return to CPM Up in the Air --- ¶9. (U) Ahead of hotly contested national elections this year, senior CPI(M) leaders have urged the party leadership to reinstate Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee into the party. West Bengal minister for sports and youth affairs Subhas Chakraborty and several CPI(M) leaders sent a letter to party secretary Biman Bose last week endorsing Chatterjee's return. Sources close to Chakraborty said that Chatterjee's years of national political experience and cross-party ties would benefit CPI(M) in national polls. ¶10. (U) Chatterjee was expelled from CPI(M) after being accused of working against his party's directive during the July 2008 confidence vote in parliament on the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal and ignoring the party's demands to step down as the Lok Sabha Speaker. CPI(M) leaders on January 15 indicated that there was "no clear thought process" regarding Chaterjee's future with the party. Badal's Son Appointed Deputy CM in Punjab --- ¶11. (U) Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal's son Sukhbir was appointed Deputy Chief Minister of State by the Shiromani Akali Daal (SAD) core committee on January 15. Sukhbir Badal is currently the party president. Local press ran stories portraying some heartburn within the local unit of coalition partner BJP, with some officials complaining NEW DELHI 00000105 003 OF 003 that CM Badal had not consulted with the BJP before making the decision. They also laid claim to the the post of Deputy Chief Minister for someone from the BJP. Badal said he had informed the BJP central leadership, including L.K. Advani and Rajnath Singh, of the impending move. ¶12. (SBU) Political observers were not surprised by the move, noting that CM Badal has been grooming his son for the position for a decade. Sukhbir has been widely credited with orchestrating the SAD's win in 2007 state assembly polls and is seen as the party's best option against Congress's state campaign leader and former CM Amarinder Singh in upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Badal junior is widely expected to succeed his father when the elder Badal steps down. Sukhbir was Indian Minister of Steel in the BJP-led NDA government from 1999 to 2004. He studied at the prestigious Lawrence Sanawar boarding school and is a close friend of Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. WHITE