DELHI DIARY, JANUARY 12-16, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000105

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

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TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PTER IN EAGR
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JANUARY 12-16, 2009


1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights
from Embassy New Delhi for January 12-16, 2009, that did
not feature in our other reporting, including:

-- Budget Session February 12-26
-- April-May Schedule Expected for Parliamentary Elections
-- Jharkhand Chief Minister Steps Down
-- Congress Youth Wave: Primetime for Priyanka in UP?
-- Somnath's Return to CPM Up in the Air
-- Badal's Son Appointed Deputy CM in Punjab


Budget Session February 12-26
- - -


2. (U) The Indian Parliament will meet to discuss budget
issues from February 12-26, the last session before national
elections due by this year. The ruling United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government will seek Parliamentary
authorization to spend money beyond the end of the fiscal
year on March 31, 2009, and until a new government is in
place following the April-May national elections. GOI will
also present the following non-budgetary items: approval for
the establishment of public universities, salary adjustment
for high court and Supreme Court judges and changes to
legislation relating to the Central Industrial Security Force
to allow it to protect private sector facilities. The
government has also offered to amend count-terrorism
legislation passed in the December session if need be to
address critics.

April-May Schedule Expected for Parliamentary Elections
--------------


3. (U) While there has been no announcement yet, there is
growing consensus that elections for the Lok Sabha (lower
house of parliament) will take place in several tranches
between mid-April and mid-May, with a new government expected
in place by the first week of June. A formal call for
elections by the government is anticipated shortly after the
abridged February 12-26 budget session. The parameters of
the election schedule are influenced by several
organizational and legal compulsions. First, the 15th Lok
Sabha must by law convene by June 6 because the five-year
term of the 14th Lok Sabha expires on that date. Second, Lok
Sabha rules require a minimum seven-day notice to newly
elected members to assemble in Parliament. Third, a
reasonable rule of thumb is that the complexities of
negotiations to forge coalitions and form a multi-party
government require about two weeks. Together, these
conditions suggest that vote counting occur and election
results be announced by May 15, at the latest.


4. (U) The massive security and organizational demands of
the Indian election exercise require that the polls be
staggered over a 3-4 week period, which suggests that the
first phase of polling take place by the third week of April.
The legally mandated 24-day "notification" period means that
Election Commission must formally "notify" (or announce) the
elections some time before the end of March. We expect the
government to call for elections shortly after the end of the
February parliamentary session, giving the Election
Commission a few weeks in March to plan, schedule and notify
the election.


Jharkhand Chief Minister Steps Down
---


5. (U) Shibu Soren stepped down as Jharkhand Chief Minister
on January 11, a few days after losing a state assembly
by-election in an upset to a political newcomer. A veteran
regional leader, Soren became CM in Jharkhand last August and
was under constitutional obligation to contest state assembly

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elections within six months. Journalist Harish Khare
observed that Soren's resignation from office was a "victory
for democracy," noting that local elections do result in real
shift of power.


6. (SBU) In his forty-plus years in politics, Soren has
served as the Indian Minister of Coal, MP of Jharkhand and
founding president of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),the
UPA's coalition partner in the state and in Delhi. His early
years as a popular rabble rousing tribal leader have been
overshadowed by numerous allegations of criminal misconduct
and corruption, including bribery and murder.

Congress Youth Wave: Primetime for Priyanka in UP?
---


7. (U) There is growing media speculation that Priyanka
Gandhi, 35-year-old daughter of Sonia Gandhi, my contest
upcoming Lok Sabha elections this year. At least six
districts in Uttar Pradesh have called for Priyanka's
nomination. All India Congress Committee officials on
January 14 praised Priyanka as a "youth icon" who would bring
welcome change to national politics.


8. (SBU) Priyanka's prospective entry into national
politics is the latest in a series of Congress Party
announcements targeted at mobilizing India's youth ahead of
parliamentary elections. 35-year-old Omar Abdullah's January
5 inauguration as the Chief Minister of J&K played in the
headlines for many days, followed shortly by Foreign Minister
Pranab Mukherjee's highly publicized endorsement of Rahul
Gandhi as the "future" Prime Minister of India. According to
press, Congress leaders want to cash in on Priyanka's
popularity in her husband Robert Vadra's home district of
Moradabad, Uttar Pradesh. It is impossible to say what is
driving the sudden calls for Priyanka to enter politics.
Often, local Congress leaders use such exhortions to prove
their fealty to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in the hope they can
curry some small advantage over their rivals within the
party. At other times, the party leadership itself
orchestrates such calls, which the members of the dynasty
then pretend they are duty-bound to accept as acts of
sacrifice rather than of self-interest.

Somnath's Return to CPM Up in the Air
---


9. (U) Ahead of hotly contested national elections this
year, senior CPI(M) leaders have urged the party leadership
to reinstate Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee into the
party. West Bengal minister for sports and youth affairs
Subhas Chakraborty and several CPI(M) leaders sent a letter
to party secretary Biman Bose last week endorsing
Chatterjee's return. Sources close to Chakraborty said that
Chatterjee's years of national political experience and
cross-party ties would benefit CPI(M) in national polls.


10. (U) Chatterjee was expelled from CPI(M) after being
accused of working against his party's directive during the
July 2008 confidence vote in parliament on the U.S.-India
civil nuclear deal and ignoring the party's demands to step
down as the Lok Sabha Speaker. CPI(M) leaders on January 15
indicated that there was "no clear thought process" regarding
Chaterjee's future with the party.

Badal's Son Appointed Deputy CM in Punjab
---


11. (U) Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal's son
Sukhbir was appointed Deputy Chief Minister of State by the
Shiromani Akali Daal (SAD) core committee on January 15.
Sukhbir Badal is currently the party president. Local press
ran stories portraying some heartburn within the local unit
of coalition partner BJP, with some officials complaining

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that CM Badal had not consulted with the BJP before making
the decision. They also laid claim to the the post of Deputy
Chief Minister for someone from the BJP. Badal said he had
informed the BJP central leadership, including L.K. Advani
and Rajnath Singh, of the impending move.


12. (SBU) Political observers were not surprised by the
move, noting that CM Badal has been grooming his son for
the position for a decade. Sukhbir has been widely credited
with orchestrating the SAD's win in 2007 state assembly polls
and is seen as the party's best option against Congress's
state campaign leader and former CM Amarinder Singh in
upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Badal junior is widely
expected to succeed his father when the elder Badal steps
down. Sukhbir was Indian Minister of Steel in the BJP-led
NDA government from 1999 to 2004. He studied at the
prestigious Lawrence Sanawar boarding school and is a close
friend of Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah.
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