APPROPRIATE TIMING FOR A PRESIDENTIAL PHONE CALL

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 001008 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR OPS, P (WEST),SCA (BOUCHER) NSC FOR CAMP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM EAGR ECON IN SUBJECT: APPROPRIATE TIMING FOR A PRESIDENTIAL PHONE CALL REF: NEW DELHI 998 ¶1. (SBU) Embassy recommends an early telephone call from President Obama to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh congratulating India on its historic elections and the Congress Party's decisive mandate. We suggest this call take place soon after the Indian President invites Manmohan Singh to form the new government. We expect this invitation to be extended as early as Tuesday, May 19. ¶2. (SBU) The Congress Party moved swiftly May 18 to initiate the process of forming a new government after its surprisingly strong performance in the parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Singh convened a Cabinet meeting in which the Cabinet submitted its resignation and recommended dissolution of the current Parliament. The Prime Minister then drove to Rashtrapati Bhavan (Presidential Palace) to submit the resignations to President Pratibha Patil and recommend that she dissolve the 14th Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament). President Patil accepted the resignations but asked the Prime Minister and his Cabinet to continue in office on an interim basis. ¶3. (SBU) President Patil is expected to invite Manmohan Singh soon, as early as May 19, to form the new government. Once this happens, the rest of the government formation process becomes a mere formality. It would, therefore, be an appropriate time for the President Obama-Prime Minister Singh call. ¶4. (SBU) President Patil's invitation to Manmohan Singh will be formally extended only after the Election Commission has certified the elections results and submitted them to the President by cob (local time) on May 18. The invitation will also likely come after incoming Congress Party legislators vote Manmohan Singh as the party leader in Parliament. This is expected to occur on the morning of May 19. Following President Patil's invitation, Manmohan Singh and the Congress Party leadership will begin finalizing the cabinet selections with swearing-in of the cabinet possibly coming before the end of this week, well before the June 2 date before which the new parliament is required to convene under Indian law. ¶5. (SBU) Indian media is rife with speculation about ministerial berths for prominent Congress Party politicians. Embassy believes at this point only Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are in a position to know which posts will go to whom. We can assess, however, that the most prominent Congress ministers of the previous government -- Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister P. Chidambaram, Defense Minister A.K. Anthony, Commerce Minister Kamal Nath -- are likely to remain in the cabinet, although not necessarily with the same portfolios. There is growing chatter about inducting more ministers from a large pool of younger members of parliament, many of whom were handpicked by Rahul Gandhi. Minister of Human Resource Development Arjun Singh could lose his job because of his erratic behavior during the election campaign after both his son and his daughter were denied Congress party nominations. Several Congress Party ministers who lost their contests, including Women and Child Development Minister Renuka Choudhary, may not find a place in the new cabinet. ¶6. (SBU) The final numbers show that the Congress Party tally is now 205 seats, the first time any party has crossed the 200 mark in Parliament since 1991. With its pre-election allies, the Congress Party alliance is up to 262 seats, within striking distance of the 272 seats needed for a majority. It should have no trouble attracting smaller parties and independents to help it form a stable and secure government. BURLEIGH