URF LEADER ABU GARDA IN TRANSIT TO ICC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000084 SIPDIS LONDON FOR POL: LORD PARIS FOR POL: D'ELIA AND KANEDA ADDIS ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AU CD SUBJECT: URF LEADER ABU GARDA IN TRANSIT TO ICC REF: NDJAMENA 55 NDJAMENA 00000084 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Louis J. Nigro for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ======= SUMMARY ======= ¶1. (C) Sudanese rebel leader Bahr Abu Garda is reported to have departed N'Djamena on March 8, ostensibly in transit to present himself before the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands. Separately, Tadjadine Niam, spokeman for Abu Garda's Sudanese rebel coalition United Resistance Forces (URF),welcomed the International Criminal Court's indictment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and predicted a near-term end to Bashir's rule. Niam also complained about the URF's lack of inclusion in the Doha talks between the Government of Sudan and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and described resulting disorganization within the JEM. We await any public indication that Abu Garda has actually reached the ICC and how the move will play out against the intransigence of Bashir. END SUMMARY. ==================================== Abu Garda Leaves for the Netherlands ==================================== ¶2. (C) Tadjadine Niam, spokesman for the Sudanese rebel coalition United Resistance Forces (URF),told poloffs in a March 4 follow-up to our recent (February 21) meeting (reftel) that URF leader Bahr Abu Garda was in N'Djamena at present, awaiting a visa to travel to the Netherlands to present his case to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Niam remained confident that going to the ICC would be Abu Garda's course of action and that the optics of Abu Garda's actions, in contrast with Sudanese President Bashir's intransigence, would play well for the URF. Niam cautioned, however, that both the GOC and the French -- who flew Garda on a military jet to N'Djamena -- wanted Garda's whereabouts and arrangement quiet while he remained in N'Djamena. Niam subsequently notified poloff (March 8) that Abu Garda was leaving that evening. ====================================== Welcoming the ICC Indictment of Bashir ====================================== ¶3. (C) During the March 4 meeting, Niam also discussed his reaction to the ICC indictment of Sudanese President Bashir, stating that the charges against Bashir gave credibility to the URF's grievances with the Government of Sudan. He also said the actions of the ICC signaled that presidential status was no longer an umbrella of impunity. Niam expressed hope that the indictment would accelerate the peace process and lead to a political settlement. There could be two possible outcomes, Niam postulated, a coup or a resignation. Both would be bloodless since assassinations were not part of the culture, he added. The URF, intent on achieving peace in Darfur, would pursue a resolution with Bashir or whoever might replace him. ============================================= Alleged Interest in Being Part of the Process ============================================= ¶4. (C) Niam repeated familiar complaints that the URF had not been invited to participate in the February Doha talks between the Government of Sudan and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). He said he felt that Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole had sown confusion into the process, leaving room for other potential peace mediators to try and get all of the parties together. Libya was now inviting other groups to talk, including the URF, Niam said. Bassole's actions had weakened the JEM and leader Khalil Ibrahim, inciting internal fighting. Niam said the URF had just given Ibrahim a lift from Darfur. Niam recounted JEM's recent losses: over 120 vehicles and three out of five commanders, plus over 90 injured JEM fighters. Niam predicted that it would be three to five months before Ibrahim regained enough military strength to go back over the border into Sudan. ¶5. (C) Although Niam said he supported the logic of Libyan-led talks -- stating that there were over 800K Sudanese in Tripoli alone, so continued talks there would be a natural follow-on to the Sirte forum -- he added that he NDJAMENA 00000084 002.2 OF 002 believed that Libya would bribe or intimidate groups to attend. Further, he indicated that the Libya option would be complicated by Qadhafi's loathing of Sudan Liberation Army (SLA/AW) faction leader Abdul Wahid al Nur. According to Niam, Wahid had personally insulted Libyan President Muammar al-Qadhafi several years previously and would never be welcome in Tripoli. Wahid's participation was important, according to Niam, who described Wahid as having the most support on the ground of all the rebel leaders. ======= COMMENT ======= ¶6. (C) The URF continues to talk about peace but has not behaved in a manner consistent with its rhetoric. If Abu Garda does indeed present himself before the ICC, the URF could gain credibility. But the move is unlikely to change the dynamic on the ground in Darfur or among the URF, JEM and GOS. END COMMENT. ¶7. (U) Tripoli Minimize considered. NIGRO