WORLD BANK WANTS GOC PRIME MINISTER TO VISIT HQ IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000079

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

LONDON FOR POL: LORD
PARIS FOR POL: D'ELIA AND KANEDA
ADDIS ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF EAID EFIN AU CD
SUBJECT: WORLD BANK WANTS GOC PRIME MINISTER TO VISIT HQ IN
DC BEFORE IT WILL RE-ENGAGE FULLY IN CHAD

REF: A. 08 NDJAMENA 547

B. 08 NDJAMENA 493

C. 08 NDJAMENA 248

NDJAMENA 00000079 001.2 OF 002


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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) World Bank Director of Operations for Chad Mary
Barton-Dock told Ambassador March 4 the Bank's relationship
with the Government of Chad had not progressed in the month
and a half since the Bank had "partially" reopened its Chad
office. A meeting between WB President Zoellick and Prime
Minister Youssouf Salef Abbas in Washington would be
necessary before the Bank could resume broad-based engagement
in Chad. Barton-Dock said she had been urging GOC officials
to make the trip to Washington, and that she now sought USG
support for an Abbas visit. The Ambassador responded that we
would favor an Abbas visit in the near term, mentioning that
he had discussed trip modalities with the Prime Minister
several times over the past year. Barton-Dock said that the
International Monetary Fund wanted the GOC to revise its 2009
budget downward, to be based on USDOLS 40 per barrel of oil,
vice the current USDOLS 85 per barrel financing. A revised
budget and successful progress under an IMF program would
lead to Chad's eligibility for debt relief, she noted, which
should be increasingly attractive to the GOC as world oil
prices stayed low.


2. (SBU) Barton-Dock,s comments are very good news for the
GOC and the USG. The PM has been trying to manage Chad's
re-engagement with the IFIs for the past year, but to date
has been more successful with the IMF than with the Bank.
Achieving full World Bank reengagement would be a major
accomplishment, not only for Chad's financial future but also
for the PM's political position. We continue to consider him
one of the most honest and effective of Chad's political
leaders. Success with the Bank should reinforce the
President's confidence in Abbas, help prolong the time in
office of his government, and reinforce his control over it.
We should plan to exploit a possible DC visit by arranging
for meetings at the most senior levels possible, so that he
benefits from hearing our message authoritatively. We
request the Department's thinking on meetings for him at
State, Defense, NSC, Commerce, and Energy. END SUMMARY.


3. (SBU) World Bank Director of Operations for Chad Mary
Barton-Dock, resident in Cameroon, and Acting Country Manager
Mamadou Deme, called on Ambassador Nigro March 4 with an
update on World Bank-Government of Chad relations and an
inquiry about USG support for a visit by Chadian Prime
Minister Youssouf Saleh Abbas to Washington. Barton-Dock
outlined the parameters for full resumption of World Bank and
International Monetary Fund operations in Chad.

===========================
GETTING ABBAS TO WASHINGTON
===========================


4. (SBU) Referencing the Bank's "partial" reengagement in
Chad, Barton-Dock stated that there had not been much
progress in WB-GOC dialogue (Ref B). She noted that the Bank
was operating only ten current projects. (NOTE: The World
Bank only reopened its Chad office in mid-January 2009,
almost a year after closure due to rebel activities. END
NOTE.) Five of the ten projects were just commencing, said
Barton-Dock, including public financial management and
regional transportation operations. Other projects in the
health, education, and agricultural sectors were near
competion; they would either need to be renewed or
reorganized to continue, according to Barton-Dock. A more
thoroughgoing engagement by the Bank was on hold, per the
direction of World Bank President Robert Zoellick. She
stated that Zoellick wanted to hear directly the assistance
priorities of Chadian President Idriss Deby, given Deby's
shifting support for the oil project. To that end, World
Bank officials were eager for PM Abbas, as Deby's emissary,
to visit Washington, DC and restart dialogue.


5. (SBU) Ambassador Nigro told Barton Dock that the USG was
supportive of the PM's government of national reconciliation,
its program of reform, and its commitment to better
governance. He said that we would support the Bank's
invitation, both because we supported closer Bank-GOC
collaboration and because it would give the USG the

NDJAMENA 00000079 002.2 OF 002


opportunity to discuss at senior levels with the PM the range
of issues of mutual concern. (Note: Abbas has not shied
away from pursuing his goal of reconciliation, which he sees
as his mandate; his actions led opposition parties to resume
their discussions with the government. Abbas also believes
in improving Chad's bilateral relations and signaled his
intent as far back as June 2008 (Ref C) to visit the United
States for bilateral dialogue, as well as discussions with
IFIs. END NOTE.)


6. (SBU) Going forward, Barton-Dock cautioned that future WB
projects would likely focus more on water, health,
sanitation, and roads, avoiding potentially problematic oil
and other energy projects.

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OPPORTUNITY FOR IMF ASSISTANCE
==============================


7. (SBU) Turning to the IMF, Barton-Dock revealed that the
new Mission chief would arrive in April, but noted that the
Fund was only willing to renew a formal relationship if the
GOC revised its 2009 budget, now based on a petroleum price
of USDOLS 85 per barrel down, to one based on a petroleum
price USDOLS 40 per barrel (Ref A). Barton-Dock said she
thought that the GOC could operate under a revised budget,
but she questioned the government's ability actually to stick
to a budget. She identified existing resources that the GOC
could draw upon -- USDOLS 400M in 2008 budgetary surplus plus
USDOLS 260M in overdraft financing from the regional
six-country Bank of Central African States (BEAC) -- but
added that she believed budgetary cuts were still necessary.
If the GOC didn't refinance this year, she said, it would
probably be fine at the USDOLS 85 per barrel estimate but
would exhaust all resources by 2010.


8. (SBU) Barton-Dock highlighted the advantages of resuming
an IMF program in Chad, stating that a resumption could lead
to Chad's eligibility for debt reduction under the Highly
Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) program. The GOC would need
to complete six months of fiscal responsibility under the IMF
program before attaining HIPC eligibility, she stated.
According to her estimates, Chad owed approximately USDOLS
500 million, mainly to the IFIs themselves -- WB, IMF, IDA.

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COMMENT
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9. (SBU) Barton-Dock,s comments are good news for the GOC
and USG. One of Prime Minister Abbas's chief goals since he
was installed last April has been to re-engage with the IFIs.
To date he has had more success with the IMF than with the
Bank. Achieving full World Bank reengagement would be a
major accomplishment, positive not only for Chad's financial
future but also important for the PM's political position.
We continue to consider Abbas one of the most honest and
effective of Chad's political leaders, and we believe that
further cultivating the USG relationship with him prudent.
Success with the Bank should reinforce President Deby's
confidence in Abbas and should increase chances that he will
continue to lead the government and that the government will
respond to his leadership.


10. (SBU) The USG should plan to exploit a possible visit by
PM Abbas to DC by arranging meetings at the most senior
levels possible, so that he benefits from hearing our message
authoritatively. We request the Department's thinking on
meetings for him at State, Defense, NSC, Commerce, and
Energy. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Tripoli Minimize considered.
NIGRO