CHAD-SUDAN DETENTE "ON TRACK," CHAD REBELS IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000601 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/C STATE FOR S/USSES OSD FOR DASD HUDDLESTON NSC FOR GAVIN LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PREF MARR SU CD SUBJECT: CHAD-SUDAN DETENTE "ON TRACK," CHAD REBELS IN SUDAN IN DISARRAY, ACCORDING TO GOC SENIOR OFFICIALS REF: A. NDJAMENA 591 ¶B. NDJAMENA 562 ¶C. NDJAMENA 536 -------------- SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (SBU) FORMIN Moussa Faki Mahamat told Ambassador December 11 that the Chad-Sudan bilateral effort aimed at normalization of relations by ending their proxy war was "still on track," but going slower than the GOC would like, Faki said that the GOS apparently had duly "cantoned" some Chad rebels (Erdimi's and Nouri's) north of El Geneina, but that other Chad rebels were making aggressive moves south of El Geneina (Adoum Yakoub's and Brahim Irila's). Faki said that the Sudanese had proposed and that he had accepted to go to Khartoum to "verify" that the GOS had completed the "cantoning" of the Chad rebels as soon as possible. National Mediator Abderamane Moussa told Ambassador December 14 that Chad rebels still in Sudan were "weak" and "discouraged;" deeply divided among themselves; and no longer believed they could be victorious against the Chad armed forces. "They are no longer capable of real offensive operations against us," Moussa said. The National Mediator said that as far as Sudanese fears regarding armed JEM rebels in Chad were concerned, the GOC was ready to welcome Sudanese delegations to "verify" that JEM had no bases of operation in Chad and were too weak themselves to mount a serious threat to Sudanese security. ¶2. (SBU) FORMIN Faki's readiness to go to Khartoum to "verify" GOS compliance with the important (in Chadian terms) confidence-building measure (CBR) of cantoning Chad rebels in Sudan appears to be a change in the agreed sequence of bilateral CBRs but a welcome one. A Faki visit to Khartoum would have at least symbolic significance and might lead to faster substantive progress on detente between the two feuding neighbors. Both the National Mediator's description of the status of Chad rebels in Sudan and his description of JEM in Chad tracks with current and previous reporting in various channels, including ours. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. -------------- CHAD-SUDAN DETENTE "STILL ON TRACK" -------------- 
¶3. (SBU) FORMIN Moussa Faki Mahamat told Ambassador December 10 that the Chad-Sudan bilateral effort aimed at normalization of relations by ending their proxy war was "still on track," but progressing more slowly than the GOC would like. Faki confirmed that he was in frequent, nearly daily, contact with his Sudanese counterpart, Dr. Ghazi, by telephone. -------------- SOME CHAD REBELS "CANTONED" -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Faki said that it appeared that the GOS had duly "cantoned" some Chad rebels north of El Geneina, at Mado (PHONETIC) and Djebel Mou (PHONETIC),northeast of Mellitt, about 200 kilometers from the border in North Darfur state. These rebels were associated with Timan Erdimi's UFR and Mahamat Nouri's UFDD groups, according to Faki. -------------- OTHERS STILL ACTIVE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) But Faki noted that other Chad rebels apparently were not responding to GOS direction and were making aggressive moves south of El Geneina. Faki said that south of El Geneina Chad rebels were operating against Chad aggressively, including laying mines. Faki said these rebels NDJAMENA 00000601 002.2 OF 002 were associated wit Adoum Yakoub's and Brahim Irila's FPRN group. -------------- FAKI READY TO GO TO SUDAN -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Faki said that the Sudanese had proposed and that he had accepted to go to Khartoum to "verify" that the GOS had completed the current confidence-building measure -- the cantoning of Chad rebel fighters far from the border and calling their leaders to Khartoum. Faki said he was ready at any time to go to Khartoum for this purpose. -------------- NATIONAL MEDIATOR SAYS CHAD REBELS WEAK, DISCOURAGED -------------- ¶7. National Mediator Abderamane Moussa told Ambassador December 14 that Chad rebels still in Sudan were "weak" and "discouraged;" deeply divided among themselves; and no longer believed they could be victorious against the Chad armed forces. "They are no longer capable of real offensive operations against us," Moussa said. The National Mediator said that as far as Sudanese fears regarding armed JEM rebels in Chad were concerned, the GOC was ready to welcome Sudanese delegations to "verify" that JEM had no bases of operation in Chad and were too weak themselves to mount a serious threat to Sudanese security. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) FORMIN Faki's readiness to go to Khartoum to "verify" GOS compliance with the important (in Chadian terms) confidence-building measure (CBR) of cantoning Chad rebels in Sudan appears to be a change in the agreed sequence of bilateral CBRs but a welcome one. A Faki visit to Khartoum would have at least symbolic significance and might lead to faster substantive progress on detente between the two feuding neighbors. Both the National Mediator's description of the status of Chad rebels in Sudan and his description of JEM in Chad tracks with previous reporting in various channels, including ours. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) Minimize considered. NIGRO