CHAD-SUDAN DETENTE: THE NEXT STEP IS DEFINITELY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000498 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/C STATE FOR S/USSES NSC FOR GAVIN SECDEF FOR DASD HUDDLESTON LONDON FOR POL - LORD PARIS FOR POL -- BAIN AND KANEDA ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF PHUM MARR SU CD SUBJECT: CHAD-SUDAN DETENTE: THE NEXT STEP IS DEFINITELY UP TO KHARTOUM, FRANCOPHONIE AMBASSADOR ASSERTS REF: A. NDJAMENA 485 ¶B. NDJAMENA 446 ¶C. NDJAMENA 438 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) "The ball is definitely in Sudan's court" in the current Chad-Sudan bilateral process aimed at detente between the two countries, Francophonie "Ambassador" Hassan Lebatt told Ambassador and DCM October 30. Lebatt, who is a keen analyst of the Chad-Sudan situation and very well-informed, said that Chad was waiting for Sudan to advise that it had relocated Chad rebels sufficiently far away from the border for Chad's comfort and that rebel chiefs were gathered in Khartoum. Lebatt confirmed our understanding of the sequence of actions agreed by Chad and Sudan during Dr. Ghazi's visit to N'Djamena: first, the Sudanese act with respect to Chad rebels; second, the Sudanese come to Chad to verify that there are no JEM bases in Eastern Chad; third, a Chadian delegation goes to Khartoum to discuss further steps. Lebatt called for international pressure on Sudan to put into force early, good-faith cantonment measures, joining UN/AU Negotiator Djibrill Bassole and Chadian officials, who have been making the same point to us since the Ghazi visit. END SUMMARY. -------------- BILATERAL DYNAMIC ENCOURAGING -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Representative of the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) Hasan Lebatt, a former Mauritanian Foreign Minister, UN official, and academic specializing in international mediation, offered his views on Chad-Sudan relations in the course of a conversation with Ambassador on Chad's electoral process, in which the OIF has played an important and positive role. Lebatt stressed that the most encouraging aspect of the October 10 visit by Sudanese Presidential Envoy Ghazi to Chad was that the Chadians and Sudanese seemed interested in speaking directly to each other, without a facilitator. Lebatt noted that the international community had a virtual "facilitators market" in operation at present, with many individuals, organizations and representatives of third countries trying to encourage Chad-Sudan rapprochement. Mediators who were biased or motivated by self-interest -- even if the interest consisted solely of putting the mediators themselves on the world stage -- generally did not make headway unless parties to conflict genuinely wanted to work out their differences. -------------- REALISM ENCOURAGING -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The GoC and GoS had not only been willing to sit down bilaterally, but they had also agreed on mutual confidence-building measures that were achievable and realistic, said Lebatt. President Deby had not asked Ghazi to disarm the Chadian rebels, to take away their sources of financing, or to chase them from Sudan, he had simply asked that they be cantoned in a location where they could not continue to threaten Chad. Ghazi had not asked Deby to force the JEM to leave Chad or to prevent them from visiting relatives here, he had merely asked that they not have military bases in Chad. Thus both sides appeared to have set aside their litanies of demands and maximalist positions. This in itself was a big step. -------------- NOW WALK THE WALK -------------- ¶4. (SBU) According to Lebatt, President Deby had told OIF Secretary General Abdou Diouf in Paris, during his visit there immediately following meetings with Ghazi, that Ghazi had agreed explicitly to the notion of Sudan's taking the NDJAMENA 00000498 002 OF 002 first step in the new bilateral process. If Sudan did not do so, said Lebatt, the result might well be a return to proxy war. The GoC remain extremely nervous about the Chadian rebels. Lebatt added that his most recent information suggested that some Chadian rebel groups were still arming. If Sudan failed to accomplish cantonment, or if it cantoned the Chadian rebels in such a way that they could remain strong or continue to receive Sudanese arms, there would likely be trouble. The international community needed to put pressure on Sudan so that it would fulfill its commitment in a manner that reassured the GoC that the Chadian rebels would not be in a position to threaten or attack. NIGRO